Thread by @chrischirp

THREAD: State of the pandemic in the UK (esp England)

Hospital admissions are best way to compare waves right back to start - we are on wave 7 now! 4 of which happened since last July.

So cases & admissions are rising - why? does it matter? where are we 2 years in?

1/13

Vaccination: Only ~60% of UK pop is boosted, with 20% of pop still unvaccinated (mostly kids).

We're giving very few jabs now - and it matters cos even boosters are now over 10 weeks ago. And for vulnerable jabbed in autumn, over 15 weeks ago...

And boosters are waning. 2/13

This matters as vax fades even faster in more vulnerable older people.

Then, the more transmissible BA.2 Omicron subvariant is dominant everywhere now - just as vax is waning.

AND many more people going back to pre-pandemic behaviours + mandatory self-isolation scrapped
3/13

Infections are rising in all nations except NI where BA2 dominated first.

In particular, outbreaks in care homes are rising & ONS reports infections in 70+ are highest they've ever been. Admissions in 65+ are rising too.

People are worried
ft.com/content/b4bf71… 4/13

From people in hospital, looks as if NI might have peaked for now, but rising in all other nations, with Scotland starting first.

People in ICU rising in Scotland too but starting from a lower base than in Dec.

Admissions rising fast in England & in all regions. 5/13

While <50% are currently there *primarily* for Covid, that number is rising faster than those there for another reason.

Plus, Covid can play a secondary role in many admissions and *any* Covid admission requires infection control measures causing issues for the hospital. 6/13

And it causes other problems... Number of NHS staff absent is rising in England (and remains higher than 2019-2021) & particularly Scotland (where wave started earlier).

Waits in A&E are still worst ever. The NHS is still under immense strain.

https://twitter.com/danielgoyal/status/1504883372715397124?s=20&t=7kgUvd3hl9UCgjQ-oOhTIw

7/13

Deaths within 28 days of +ve test are flat in UK as a whole, but this wave is still recent.

In Scotland, where it started earlier, deaths within 28 days *and* on death certificate are going up.

Deaths from this wave might end up higher than first Omicron wave 8/13

Finally, let's look at kids. From ONS, they had one big wave in first 18 months but 3 waves July 2021 - Jan 2022.

They've just started their 4th v big wave - and <90 days after 3rd one.

They are also least vaxxed - esp <12s.

and yes it translates to hospital. 9/13

Estimates are that ~80% of primary kids have been infected already & ~40% in most recent wave.

When are we going to stop believing that infection stops future waves? How much school disruption will we accept?

Vax protects kids & we should *actively* promote it. 10/13

There is no vaccine yet for under 5s. BUT, latest data suggests that not only does vaccination protect pregnant women, it *also* protects their babies for the first 6 months after birth.

We need to redouble efforts to protect pregnant women and their unborn babies 11/13

So. We've had pretty high burden of Covid since July. Next variant will come & cld be worse (nature.com/articles/s4157…).

If we do not *actively* reduce transmission, then we *must* increase NHS support. (

https://twitter.com/danielgoyal/status/1504883375575904258?s=20&t=7kgUvd3hl9UCgjQ-oOhTIw

)

& each accept getting ill more than we did.

12/13

I'd rather fight back.

theconversation.com/eight-changes-…

13/13

PS thanks as always to Bob Hawkins for his help in collating lots of the data and charts!