(1 of 4)
The Kremlin has so far failed to achieve its original objectives. It has been surprised by the scale and ferocity of Ukrainian Resistance.
(2 of 4)
Russia has been forced to change its operational approach and is now pursuing a strategy of attrition.
(3 of 4)
This is likely to involve the indiscriminate use of firepower resulting in increased civilian casualties, destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure, and intensify the humanitarian crisis.
(4 of 4)
Putin has reinforced his control over Russian domestic media. The Kremlin is attempting to control the narrative, detract from operational problems and obscure high Russian casualty numbers from the Russian people.
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(2/4) Russian forces are continuing to encircle a number of cities across eastern Ukraine.
(3/4) Over the past week Russian forces have made limited progress in capturing these cities; instead, Russia has increased its indiscriminate shelling of urban areas resulting in widespread destruction and large numbers of civilian casualties.
(2/4) The Ukrainian Air Force and Air Defence Forces are continuing to effectively defend Ukrainian airspace.
(3/4) Russia has failed to gain control of the air and is largely relying on stand-off weapons launched from the relative safety of Russian airspace to strike targets within Ukraine.
(2/4) Russian forces have made minimal progress this week.
(3/4) Ukrainian forces around Kyiv and Mykolaiv continue to frustrate Russian attempts to encircle the cities. The cities of Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy and Mariupol remain encircled and subject to heavy Russian shelling.
(2/4) Logistical problems continue to beset Russiaβs faltering invasion of Ukraine.
(3/4) Reluctance to manoeuvre cross-country, lack of control of the air and limited bridging capabilities are preventing Russia from effectively resupplying their forward troops with even basic essentials such as food and fuel.
Given the delays in achieving their objectives and failure to control Ukrainian airspace, Russia has probably expended far more stand-off air launched weapons than originally planned.
(2/3)
As a result, it is likely Russia is resorting to the use of older, less precise weapons, which are less militarily effective and more likely to result in civilian casualties.