O B Profile picture
Mar 19, 2022 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Seriously... $RIG is a high risk company... high utilization on long legacy contracts producing this:
Adjusted EBITDA was $250 million, compared to $245 million in the prior quarter
vs
the blue bars below:
Night and day vs VAL's Risk vs Reward imo.
When you are done adding together the blue bars and comparing that to the EBITDA their great backlog is giving them.. you can compare it to having more cash than debt and the debt being due 2028
Dividends anytime soon? More likely more new ATM shares issued I would guess.
Seriously, what am I missing here? Is the huge backlog full of contracts that will gradually re-set higher? I mean, they can not have booked a huge backlog with stuff like this? What is the path to a huge improvement?
That A LOT of debt compared to what they manage to earn. I can only repeat... what is good about a huge backlog? Unless someone can present large annual stepups in rates coming years...
"Adjusted EBITDA was $250 million, compared to $245 million in the prior quarter"

Q4 "Interest expense, net of amounts capitalized, was $107 million, compared with $110 million in the prior quarter"
$RIG does not need a current huge backlog.. they need to get out of current contracts and make new ones at much higher levels. This in order to afford interest & amortizations.

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More from @OriginalBraila

Dec 5, 2025
Largest current holdings:
1. $VZLA
2. $KNT
3. $MKO.v
4. $ECO/ $OET
5. $GGD
6. $PGLD.v
7. $CERT.v
8. $NEXG.v
9. $NCAU.v
9. $SM.v
10. $GOT.v
11. $NEXM.v
12. $APGO.v
The year is coming to an end. +97% measured in a currency up 15% against the USD is great. I don't know if 2026
can match that but I do know that logically this, much more than 2025, is the year when my companies really should re-rate up due to individual fundamentals like the Lassonde curve and more.Image
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Put differently, to a large extent I think 2025 was about the metal prices improving while 2026 will be about the companies delivering and reaching phases where they typically get higher valuations.

I couldn't be more happy about the companies I own entering 2026, which is a reason you don't see that many changes.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 6, 2025
I would like to introduce a new company that I hope will be important to me going forward. Full disclosure is that we talked to management since months, met them at Beaver Creek and I invested as much as I was allowed in a recent private placement. $PGLD.v p2gold.com
Great management track record, great place to have an asset and an interesting story how well established technology changed how the ore will be treated vs when this asset was first discovered.
p2gold.com/_resources/pre…
youtu.be/9AmM-Y6CXIo?si…
- Former Pretium Resources management, took BruceJack ug mine in B.C. from discovery hole to commercial production in less the 8 years. Management hold ~ 17% of sh os
- Recently closed $11 million Cad financing
- 207 million sh os (328 FD) MCap 54 million Cad
- ~ 12M cad in cash
- P2 owns 100% of Gabbs, a 45 km2 gold-copper heap leach project in Nevada, Walker lane trend, 100% BLM land.
- Total 3.5 million oz AuEq - 1.2 million Indicated and 2.3 million AuEq inferred (depending on price assumption 70-80% gold)
- Gold/Copper in three shallow OP porphyry deposits.
- 2024 PEA show 175k AuEq pa for 14.2 years
- NPV5 @ $3350 gold $1.8B usd = 0.022 x NPV5
- Met work finished 2 months ago show strong increases in recovery for oxide ore (+9% for gold and +24% for copper)
- These numbers will be incorporated in an updated PEA, expected release early - mid October
- Next step is to go straight to FS and start drilling mid October. 4000 meter before year end and 6000 meter in Q1.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 8, 2024
Trump & Tankers:
1. Actually enforce Iran sanctions reducing dark fleet shorter haul transport to ChIndia.
2. Incentivize more US production
3. Push SK, Japan, China to reduce the trade deficit causing them to prioritize long haul import from the US.

$OET $ECO
One more thing to take note of. Dry docks are done 4y 9m - 5y from delivery.

Okeanis is coming out of its toughest dry dock year 2024 with 6 dry docks. Next year will be only two (Suezmaxes in the summer months). Meaning increased utilization

Large tankers=limited fleet growth
"Completed necessary special surveys on 3x VLCCs during the seasonally weaker Q3." Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 30, 2024
Profits will come up a lot for gold producers.
$KNT & $MKO.V are important producers for me that I expect to hold several years to see production and profits move up a lot. Image
Mako has about 79m shares and cost 3.15C$ or a mcap of 180m USD.

With 2800 gold, the 2027 Guyana mine will almost have an AISC margin of 2000 usd x 66500 ounces of gold with life of mine 15y that is likely to grow.

2025-26 profits from Nicaragua mine will help to finance capex. Image
An amazingly uncomplicated mine where they start with basically mining dirt from surface meaning less capex and need for crushing. Image
Image
Read 4 tweets
Jun 9, 2024
When silver falls from 31 to 29, and even if it would fall to 27 due to China saying it will stop buying gold for a while (to get the price to cool down to be able to buy more gold...) that isn't important.

It is only a sale and an opportunity if one believes in the fundamentals
$AYA, $GGD $VZLA they will all be large producers with All in sustaining costs around 10 usd and the impact of what is happening with the price is low or zero.

Napkin calculation: GGD is fully funded for production, 360 musd mcap. 8m ounce x 15 usd=120musd, then they double that
I am not saying people should buy, and mining stocks are much tougher than shipping because volatility even in the higher quality names is extreme. The flip side is that one can make a lot more money is names like this, a lot more

Size properly, know what you own, act contrarian
Read 6 tweets
Jun 2, 2024
I think I am on to something huge with $GOT.v but there is no 43-101 compliant resource of ounces yet and certainly no reserves of economical ounces

Very rich neighbourhood and MUCH better nearby infrastructure than people think when looking at the website "top of Mount Everest"

Image
Image
Image
Truly an amazing story about most easy gold in the world having been mined 100s of years ago, but in this case was covered by ice now gone making it possible to find:
Jackpot outcrop the highest-grade sample ever collected on the property 21.5 oz/t AuEq or 667.40 gpt AuEq. Image
Image
Read 8 tweets

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