Trump & Tankers:
1. Actually enforce Iran sanctions reducing dark fleet shorter haul transport to ChIndia.
2. Incentivize more US production
3. Push SK, Japan, China to reduce the trade deficit causing them to prioritize long haul import from the US.

$OET $ECO One more thing to take note of. Dry docks are done 4y 9m - 5y from delivery.

Okeanis is coming out of its toughest dry dock year 2024 with 6 dry docks. Next year will be only two (Suezmaxes in the summer months). Meaning increased utilization

Large tankers=limited fleet growth

Profits will come up a lot for gold producers.
$KNT & $MKO.V are important producers for me that I expect to hold several years to see production and profits move up a lot. Mako has about 79m shares and cost 3.15C$ or a mcap of 180m USD.

With 2800 gold, the 2027 Guyana mine will almost have an AISC margin of 2000 usd x 66500 ounces of gold with life of mine 15y that is likely to grow.

2025-26 profits from Nicaragua mine will help to finance capex.

When silver falls from 31 to 29, and even if it would fall to 27 due to China saying it will stop buying gold for a while (to get the price to cool down to be able to buy more gold...) that isn't important.

It is only a sale and an opportunity if one believes in the fundamentals $AYA, $GGD $VZLA they will all be large producers with All in sustaining costs around 10 usd and the impact of what is happening with the price is low or zero.

Napkin calculation: GGD is fully funded for production, 360 musd mcap. 8m ounce x 15 usd=120musd, then they double that

I think I am on to something huge with $GOT.v but there is no 43-101 compliant resource of ounces yet and certainly no reserves of economical ounces

Very rich neighbourhood and MUCH better nearby infrastructure than people think when looking at the website "top of Mount Everest"



Truly an amazing story about most easy gold in the world having been mined 100s of years ago, but in this case was covered by ice now gone making it possible to find:
Jackpot outcrop the highest-grade sample ever collected on the property 21.5 oz/t AuEq or 667.40 gpt AuEq.

A lot of serious investors imo are too sceptical. They lack enough capability painting a bullish case in their head and gets too overwhelmed with fretting about risks so that when something that is high probability to be great, they instead focus on their fears. Quite common imo. Other investors obviously have the opposite problem which I think is mostly about a lack of willingness to put in the hard work putting in place both the positive vision and understanding the risk in order to be able 2 interpret news that confirms or do not confirm the pos vision

Key word when it comes to $GGD is management credibility. Scores highest grade possible when it comes to mgt delivering production. Very experienced and serious people. Excellent interview that also confirms underground as backup in the 2nd north project:
Latest presentation:
gogoldresources.com/images/uploads…

Silverstocks are violent movers. Big swings up and down.

Basically silver is a highly leveraged bet on gold.

Silver stocks are a highly leveraged bet on silver.

Over night, silver has had a fairly substantial move down from 27.2 to 26.66 at time of writing. So expect downday. When I moved from mining stocks to shipping, the same volatility in shipping others found very uncomfortable was for me "calm waters" compared to what I came from.

So, remember not to size mining stocks higher than the volatility you can stomach.

If possible, also trade some.

I love this picture of the property $MKO is acquiring.

Not all mines are created equal. Alot of them involve explosives to break up hard rock and then a number of different typ of crushing. Those things don't come cheap to buy or to run.

This below is called saprolite or dirt. Can you imagine mining dirt from surface instead of dealing with hard rock? Fortunately we can illustrate the difference in numbers. Low CAPEX, cheap to run gives you 57% IRR... after tax...

And.. highly likely a lot more "dirt" to find as Mako fires up exploration, post merger.

I think we are in an emerging goldstock bull market. While it is not yet 43-101 resources, it is my belief that this company will end up having a huge gold deposit.
It is more about when they decide to write the report on the drill results.
This is potential 10x material
$GOT.v

https://twitter.com/SmallCapIntro/status/1760331350001819649

Almost 1.4m shares, all bought in the market as the CEO unfortunately turned down a fair PP offer. In a way I understood him. I can't understand either that the stock is not higher.
But I sure hope there are no more full warrants to certain well known investors. #AlsoESG

Shipping has at one big advantage over mining stocks

As things get cyclically profitable, it is difficult to tax it to pieces, or steal it

However, gold and copper are interesting to me, especially when combined in one mine. I welcom GOOD gold/copper producers in good countries This as I at least try to have some diversification. My current single stock is active in two mining countries I really like and one I semi like:
Serbia & Namibia (great for building mines and trustworthy imo)
and Bulgaria (okay once the mine is built)
So Dundee Precious is a 2%

finance.yahoo.com/quote/GALP.LS/
I guess one could say that GALP MCAP increased 1 billion EUR with a 80% stake.

Sintana holding 1/16 the share of GALP (but carried) so 62.5m EUR in theoretical initial value creation if all the rise of Galp today is Namibia.

$OET expected annual div/share in USD/year at various VLCC and Suezmax average annual rates. Multiply with 10.93 to get NOK/share.

If Ed Finley latest whisper on VLCCs is right we should be back at the 100k usd TCE level for $OET superior ECO VLCCs from US to Asia trips. Trailing 4 quarter dividend from $OET is almost exactly 50 NOK.

Next year 1 VLCC will be added, 2025 the same. My guess is that means negative fleet growth in the +900 large world VLCC fleet the coming 2 years.

Super high upside, benign downside risk

$DIS.MI company nr on NAV/share was 7.14 usd at the end of Q2. Incl profits, effect of buybacks & incr asset values I would conservatively guess they soon report 7.7 usd or 7.29 EUR vs closing at 4.42 EUR.
Meaning a NAV valuation of 60.6% or almost a 40% discount to NAV. Imo,
has the most attractive ECO fleet of MR/LR product tankers, Japanese and Korean built.

They also have a management that is currently doing almost everything right to create value/share given the tools at their disposal. Which is rare behavior.…tions.damicointernationalshipping.com/en/home-page/i…

This interview is A Must Listen. I put the start point at "Tankers" to help illustrate why I hold what I do below and why I am multiyear bullish. But all of the discussion is great and eductional.

I make big bets when I see great setups, still early here.

https://twitter.com/OriginalBraila/status/1702769881521746185

There are some hard facts: 1. Abnormal little order book of large tankers 2. Fleet has aged as scrap material has gone to sanction trades 3. Yards are full for years 4. Environmental rules kick in 5. More oil needs to go from Atlantic basin to Asia coming years All yet to kick in

How do shipping scams work?
1. List a foreign shipping Co in the US where regulation is non existant.
2. Get the right to issue new shares (without having to pressrelease, the US u know).
3. Scream that you are undervalued, get analysts to say the same and compare you to real Cos 4. Get aggressive, do large placements of new shares at at 60% discount to NAV and 30% to shareprice.
5. Sell more shares in the market regardless of price.
6. Repeat and repeat.
7. Get analysts to speculate about change in behavior.
8 . Buy more & more ships for the money

About 3.5 months since my last ATH after a very good start in 2023. Still up 21% measured in USD which is great, But as many others I find the ongoing shipping sentiment quite poor.

Still, this is absolutely normal and my guess is that my portfolio will continue up during 2023. Why this tweet? Because.. Over the years I have learned that people will worry and want my opinion.

Worry is normal, for me the only way to handle it, is fresh knowledge.

I can't see any real reason why tanker investors should worry, but I do keep an eye on China longer term.

$STNG vs $TORM is currently a completely insane 45% POINTS in NAV valuation difference.

TORM having old clean tankers that trade dirty rather than STNG having ECO Clean tankers have ironically probably made more as Afra rates have been higher than LR2 creating insane value diff. Logically more LR2s will convert to trade dirty (Aframax trades) meaning that this advantage for Torm over Scorpio is not sustainable.

I don't understand why anyone would want to own Torm over peers at this time.

Only logical reason imo, lack of knowledge how they are valued.

The most important chart in shipping, the best setup in shipping.
- Compare the OB, Orderbook size to old fleet years.
- When a ship turns 15 meaning 2008, number of drydocks goes from every 5y to every 2.5y.
- DD gets longer + more expensive + repositioning time. - 2008 is also important as it was about then China became a large producer of VLCC. The first say 5 years at they were of lower quality and hence can expect to increase that 15y DD effect.
- 2003 and earlier means 20y old. 2001 and earlier means the 22.5y DD. Compare to OB.

Life for Valeura Energy investors have been tough, the last few days which I think is partly based on investors looking at the the guided CAPEX number and hence profitability and Free Cash Flow in the wrong way Tnx to @martyh79 & @TApocalyt
SharesFD: 109m
Price: 2.45C$ 1.79 usd MCAP fd: 195 musd.

Cash vs debt pre acquisition about net out, net debt free post acquisition closed.

Acquisition cashflow accrued since Sept 2022 adding net 105 musd adjusting for future taxes giving us a current MCAP net of cash of only 90 musd.

Follow me to understand why I bought more Valeura Energy last few days.

1. I have a favorite called Panoro Energy, below you can see Pareto fresh estimate how they 2024 will trade at P/E 2.2, probably with an assumption of 13k boepd.
MCAP 310 musd + debt 40 musd. Valeura Energy has a MCAP of 220 musd and no debt.

4 weeks ago they formally closed on a deal making them a +20k producer up & running. A bit earlier they closed on another Thai asset not yet restarted that came with huge tax loss assets making very high earnings/barrel likely.

It was some time since I talked about dry dock for tankers. But I think it is time to highlight this as a major coming removal of capacity. Best picture to start with is a classic from $EURN illustrating how DD is every 5y until 15 and then 2.5y. As you see costs for the DD goes up as more things need to be replaced but what is more interesting is time. I think I have seen that the 5y is like 14 days and I went to check with the oldest shipowner, $TNK and they indicate 35 days! I would guess that is the 15y time for a DD.