I love this picture of the property $MKO is acquiring.

Not all mines are created equal. Alot of them involve explosives to break up hard rock and then a number of different typ of crushing. Those things don't come cheap to buy or to run.

This below is called saprolite or dirt. Can you imagine mining dirt from surface instead of dealing with hard rock? Fortunately we can illustrate the difference in numbers. Low CAPEX, cheap to run gives you 57% IRR... after tax...

And.. highly likely a lot more "dirt" to find as Mako fires up exploration, post merger.

I think we are in an emerging goldstock bull market. While it is not yet 43-101 resources, it is my belief that this company will end up having a huge gold deposit.
It is more about when they decide to write the report on the drill results.
This is potential 10x material
$GOT.v

https://twitter.com/SmallCapIntro/status/1760331350001819649

Almost 1.4m shares, all bought in the market as the CEO unfortunately turned down a fair PP offer. In a way I understood him. I can't understand either that the stock is not higher.
But I sure hope there are no more full warrants to certain well known investors. #AlsoESG

Shipping has at one big advantage over mining stocks

As things get cyclically profitable, it is difficult to tax it to pieces, or steal it

However, gold and copper are interesting to me, especially when combined in one mine. I welcom GOOD gold/copper producers in good countries This as I at least try to have some diversification. My current single stock is active in two mining countries I really like and one I semi like:
Serbia & Namibia (great for building mines and trustworthy imo)
and Bulgaria (okay once the mine is built)
So Dundee Precious is a 2%

finance.yahoo.com/quote/GALP.LS/
I guess one could say that GALP MCAP increased 1 billion EUR with a 80% stake.

Sintana holding 1/16 the share of GALP (but carried) so 62.5m EUR in theoretical initial value creation if all the rise of Galp today is Namibia.

$OET expected annual div/share in USD/year at various VLCC and Suezmax average annual rates. Multiply with 10.93 to get NOK/share.

If Ed Finley latest whisper on VLCCs is right we should be back at the 100k usd TCE level for $OET superior ECO VLCCs from US to Asia trips. Trailing 4 quarter dividend from $OET is almost exactly 50 NOK.

Next year 1 VLCC will be added, 2025 the same. My guess is that means negative fleet growth in the +900 large world VLCC fleet the coming 2 years.

Super high upside, benign downside risk

$DIS.MI company nr on NAV/share was 7.14 usd at the end of Q2. Incl profits, effect of buybacks & incr asset values I would conservatively guess they soon report 7.7 usd or 7.29 EUR vs closing at 4.42 EUR.
Meaning a NAV valuation of 60.6% or almost a 40% discount to NAV. Imo,
has the most attractive ECO fleet of MR/LR product tankers, Japanese and Korean built.

They also have a management that is currently doing almost everything right to create value/share given the tools at their disposal. Which is rare behavior.…tions.damicointernationalshipping.com/en/home-page/i…

This interview is A Must Listen. I put the start point at "Tankers" to help illustrate why I hold what I do below and why I am multiyear bullish. But all of the discussion is great and eductional.

I make big bets when I see great setups, still early here.

https://twitter.com/OriginalBraila/status/1702769881521746185

There are some hard facts: 1. Abnormal little order book of large tankers 2. Fleet has aged as scrap material has gone to sanction trades 3. Yards are full for years 4. Environmental rules kick in 5. More oil needs to go from Atlantic basin to Asia coming years All yet to kick in

How do shipping scams work?
1. List a foreign shipping Co in the US where regulation is non existant.
2. Get the right to issue new shares (without having to pressrelease, the US u know).
3. Scream that you are undervalued, get analysts to say the same and compare you to real Cos 4. Get aggressive, do large placements of new shares at at 60% discount to NAV and 30% to shareprice.
5. Sell more shares in the market regardless of price.
6. Repeat and repeat.
7. Get analysts to speculate about change in behavior.
8 . Buy more & more ships for the money

About 3.5 months since my last ATH after a very good start in 2023. Still up 21% measured in USD which is great, But as many others I find the ongoing shipping sentiment quite poor.

Still, this is absolutely normal and my guess is that my portfolio will continue up during 2023. Why this tweet? Because.. Over the years I have learned that people will worry and want my opinion.

Worry is normal, for me the only way to handle it, is fresh knowledge.

I can't see any real reason why tanker investors should worry, but I do keep an eye on China longer term.

$STNG vs $TORM is currently a completely insane 45% POINTS in NAV valuation difference.

TORM having old clean tankers that trade dirty rather than STNG having ECO Clean tankers have ironically probably made more as Afra rates have been higher than LR2 creating insane value diff. Logically more LR2s will convert to trade dirty (Aframax trades) meaning that this advantage for Torm over Scorpio is not sustainable.

I don't understand why anyone would want to own Torm over peers at this time.

Only logical reason imo, lack of knowledge how they are valued.

The most important chart in shipping, the best setup in shipping.
- Compare the OB, Orderbook size to old fleet years.
- When a ship turns 15 meaning 2008, number of drydocks goes from every 5y to every 2.5y.
- DD gets longer + more expensive + repositioning time. - 2008 is also important as it was about then China became a large producer of VLCC. The first say 5 years at they were of lower quality and hence can expect to increase that 15y DD effect.
- 2003 and earlier means 20y old. 2001 and earlier means the 22.5y DD. Compare to OB.

Life for Valeura Energy investors have been tough, the last few days which I think is partly based on investors looking at the the guided CAPEX number and hence profitability and Free Cash Flow in the wrong way Tnx to @martyh79 & @TApocalyt
SharesFD: 109m
Price: 2.45C$ 1.79 usd MCAP fd: 195 musd.

Cash vs debt pre acquisition about net out, net debt free post acquisition closed.

Acquisition cashflow accrued since Sept 2022 adding net 105 musd adjusting for future taxes giving us a current MCAP net of cash of only 90 musd.

Follow me to understand why I bought more Valeura Energy last few days.

1. I have a favorite called Panoro Energy, below you can see Pareto fresh estimate how they 2024 will trade at P/E 2.2, probably with an assumption of 13k boepd.
MCAP 310 musd + debt 40 musd. Valeura Energy has a MCAP of 220 musd and no debt.

4 weeks ago they formally closed on a deal making them a +20k producer up & running. A bit earlier they closed on another Thai asset not yet restarted that came with huge tax loss assets making very high earnings/barrel likely.

It was some time since I talked about dry dock for tankers. But I think it is time to highlight this as a major coming removal of capacity. Best picture to start with is a classic from $EURN illustrating how DD is every 5y until 15 and then 2.5y. As you see costs for the DD goes up as more things need to be replaced but what is more interesting is time. I think I have seen that the 5y is like 14 days and I went to check with the oldest shipowner, $TNK and they indicate 35 days! I would guess that is the 15y time for a DD.

Listening to @VesselsValue, always such interesting work.

CII regulations looks increasingly interesting to me and as I have argued it will be mostly important for tankers

The idea is introduced that all vessels likely aims for a "C-rating". D-E vessels by slowing, A-B increase That theoretical CII rating change in speed is for E down 9% in speed (!!) 15% possible speed increase for a A-rated ship.
The expected impact for dry bulk and containers is massively smaller. As I understand since they are not in a strong market.

Want to be a good investor?

Make sure you understand the fundamentals in the sector and the company you invest in.

Only when you have full confidence in those two, you can be fully confident buying rather than selling all temporary weakness one always see. Never has that been more true than in tankers the last year. And it is about:
- Understanding fleet age
- Oil demand
- where additional oil is produced, consumed=transport distance
- New environmental rules
- Orderbook
- Yard book

To me, 95% odds this is a 3y minimum bull market

While I only choose to have 1% of my portfolio in this company due to high risk vs cashflowing AAAquality shipping companies, it is one of my absolute favorite portfolio companies:

Very high quality partners that pay & imo, logically good chance of success Obviously what to focus on here is the three offshore Namibia plays in where partners Chevron, Woodside & GALP prepare to hopefully drill very high impact wells next to the huge finds to the south done by in one field, Shell & partners and the other, Total & partners.
87, 90, 83

Interesting article based on @VesselsValue research:
splash247.com/ships-with-cii…
As I pointed out many times, CII would come to matter mostly for tankers (rather than containers) as they were set for the bull market wanting to speed up.

Some very interesting quotes below: " For band E vessels to operate in band C, the average speed reduction of 12% would result in a discount of 12%

The effects are most prominent in the tanker market, with band A vessels potentially able to generate an average value premium of 9%,"

I don't usually do small exploration companies anymore. But I have made an exception due to being able to without cost invest together with large companies in the planets hottest oil find.
chevron.com
woodside.com
galp.com/corp/Portals/0…

@sintanaenergy

https://twitter.com/NamcorNamibia/status/1632657147866537984

MCAP of Sintana is 30-40 musd depending how you count and you get:
5%
7%
5%
interest in completely crazy interesting drilling by the above larger companies in the area where Total and Shell in their two blocks have opened up the most interesting oil district in the world.

The bullish scenario with the updated OET presentation and knowing the USD is worth 10.4 NOK.

This year 120/96K V&S rates next two years 1 step out. Price now 255nok (post the coming div)

2023: 315/32.2x10.4=40% yield
24: 480/32.2x10.4=155 nok div
25: 501/32.2x10.4=162 nok div I chose those 3 years as those are the ones where the yards are full and basically no new Suezmax or VlCCs will come.

Post that we have 2026 & a few year more where the uncertainty is higher in regards to new ships. See tweets yesterday why I am bullish beyond 2025.

If you have multiyear charters in a rising interest rate environment, like many containers and LNG companies have.

Need to lower those target prices as interest rates move up. So if FLNG cashflow was discounted by 10% before, it is probably 13% now.

$DAC, 20%? TP, too high. As an investor, especially in container ship lease and boxes.

You Need to ask your analyst, how much have you raised the discount rated used in the NPV models the last 6 months.

If the target price has not crashed with rising rates... then you don't really need to ask... 😉