Thread by @billroggio

1) Interesting information on the control of the skies above Ukraine: @nytimes: "While experts have been puzzled by Russia’s failure to gain complete control over the Ukrainian skies, they are certainly dominant ..."
nytimes.com/2022/03/19/wor…

2) "... --- Russian surface-to-air missile capabilities can reach anywhere in Ukraine, according to military analysts. Russia is believed to fly some 200 sorties per day while Ukraine flies five to 10."

3) In the first week of the war, it is not clear how many Russian strikes hit their targets, but Piotr Lukasiewicz, an analyst at Polityka Insight, a Warsaw-based research institute, said that they did serious damage to Ukraine’s command and control centers."

4) “They disabled an important headquarters and communications center in the beginning with precision strikes,” he said.

5) "Just as the Russians are plagued by logistical and resupply issues, the Ukrainians are struggling to replace the stationary systems that the Russians have destroyed or disabled."

6) “Gradually Ukrainians are losing their radars or warning systems,” Mr. Lukasiewicz said.

7) We have to consider the possibility that the Russians have been holding back the bulk of its air force until Ukrainian air defenses have been sufficiently degraded. Russia appears to be relying on long range missiles to hit key air defense facilities.

8) Disabling a sophisticated air defense network doesn't happen overnight. It can take weeks to accomplish. If true, this is evidence that the Russians were prepared for a lengthy campaign.

9) The sortie ratio of 200 to 5/10 a day in favor of Russia shows that the Russians have a distinct advantage in the air. And this part of the reason Zelensky is pleading for a no-fly zone.

10) One last note: @nytimes said the Russians are "dominant" in the air but then says they don't have Air Superiority. This might be splitting hairs, but that is somewhat contradictory. NATO defines Air Superiority as follows:

11) "That degree of dominance in the air battle of one force over another which permits the conduct of operations by the former and its related land, sea and air forces at a given time and place without prohibitive interference by the opposing force."

12) To be clear, I am not saying the Russians have Air Superiority (it sounds like they are on the cusp), but @nytimes is using terminology that implies it does.