To those who have called for an "off-ramp" for Putin, I have just one question. Don't you feel ashamed of yourselves? When you look at what is happening in Mariupol, where citizens are being rounded up and kidnapped to Russia, put in camps and forcibly relocated?
Or when you see the rest of the residents of that city suffering without food and water? Or a theater full of mothers and children being bombed? When you hear that the WHO says 44 hospitals and health facilities have been attacked? When you see nuclear facilities being shelled?
Thermobaric weapons being launched? When you see the devastation in city after city where residential neighborhoods are being turned to rubble, city centers into smoldering ghost towns? Why are we obligated to provide Putin with anything other than defeat?
Putin started this carnage without justification. He alone has made the decision to escalate. He has serially violated international laws and committed war crimes and crimes against humanity. He has lied about the threat posed by Ukraine and by NATO and the US.
At no point...at no point...has he responded rationally or given the slightest hint that he had any interest in serious negotiations. He has responded to every good faith effort to end this war with further brutality.
Why would anyone think the world owed Vladimir Putin anything other than prosecution and conviction? What could possibly make anyone think he can be reasoned with? Why would you assume a man who started a war for no reason would need a reason to end it?
I understand the fear of escalation. I understand the concern about further atrocities, further suffering for the people of Ukraine. But thus far the only thing that has spared Ukraine even greater devastation was the victories of Ukrainian soldiers on the battlefield.
Thus far, the only reasoning that has kept Putin from seizing Kyiv and destroying it as he has cities in the East is that provided courtesy of western weapons and the resourcefulness and skill of Ukraine's military.
If you want Putin to withdraw, make him withdraw. Continue to squeeze his economy. Continue to provide Ukraine with the military support it needs. There were only ever going to be two ways Putin would leave Ukraine--following a victory and the installation of a puppet regime...
...or following a defeat. We all should want this war to be over as soon as possible. We all should want the suffering of the Ukrainian people to end and the rebuilding of their country to begin. I understand why the idea of off-ramps are so appealing.
But they are rational ideas being offered to placate the madness of a war criminal. Putin is not the master strategist he was made out to be. He is certainly not the savvy statesman Mike Pompeo once described him as.
Putin is a bully and a sociopath. He thrives on the weaknesses of others. He thrives on their rationality and the fact that they are constrained by rules or inclined toward social norms like telling the truth or caring for other humans that mean absolutely nothing to him.
Yes, by all means, seek peace. But recognize that what will move us closer to a cease fire, an end to these horrors, is not offering up a diplomatic gift basket to a monster. He will negotiate seriously when he realizes the cost of this war is too great...
...when the possibility of his defeat is made real to him. The good news is that thanks to the strength of Ukraine's gov't, military & its people, that reality is being made more clear every day. Pres. Zelenskyy & his government have pursued peace
diligently but realistically.
They have communicated that they are willing to listen to Russian proposals. But not only have they found those proposals to be outrageous, they have found that the negotiations are only being used as cover while further escalations and further wanton brutality takes place.
Finally, for those who seek a fig leaf, to provide some way for Putin to think he has won, know that his metrics and yours are different. And that time & time again, when he has violated int'l law, committed atrocities, slaughtered innocents, the world did provide him off-ramps.
It provided him with "settlements" and agreements signed at long negotiating tables. And each and every time...not some times...every time...he violated those agreements. And every time the world enabled him to emerge stronger, he used that strength to commit new crimes.
Chechnya was followed by Syria, Georgia was followed by Crimea. Look at the pictures of Grozny or Aleppo. Compare them to Kharkiv & Mariupol. Why do they look so similar? Because Putin sees every off-ramp provided to him by the world as an entrance on the road to his next target.
We must, after 2 decades, learn the lessons Putin has taken such pains to teach us. There are two choices. Either we stop him this time or he will do this again. Either he pays a price for these crimes greater than any he has known before or we will be right back here again soon.
It is possible to love peace and realize that the only lasting peace will come from the defeat of your enemy. That must be the case here. And if the people of Ukraine choose to reach a ceasefire (and we must support their decisions, they are the ones fighting and dying)...
...then it behooves the rest of the world to ensure that Putin for the rest of his life pays a high price for the crimes he has committed in Ukraine and before.
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When I see reports of Assad sending thousands of troops to support Putin's campaign of war crimes in Ukraine or of the use of Wagner Group mercenaries or Russia's bringing in some of their most brutal veterans of Chechnya...
...or of the Kremlin employing other approaches drawn from their prior violations of international law in Chechnya, Syria, Georgia, Crimea & Eastern Ukraine, I can't help but think of the role bad U.S. and Western policy decisions played in making this catastrophe possible.
Not holding Putin to account in the past, not standing up to him in the past, not respecting our own "red lines" in the past, & of course, having one POTUS who actively did Putin's bidding to help Russia, weaken Ukraine and weaken NATO, definitely helped set the stage for this.
Despite the pundit/Twitter debate, nearly 80% say working with allies re: Ukraine has been the right approach, 85% strongly or somewhat favor maintaining strict economic sanctions, 77% strongly or somewhat favor large US force presence near Ukraine... pewrsr.ch/3q6ZXoW
...and nearly 7 in 10 strongly or somewhat favor admitting large numbers of Ukrainian refugees to the US. Tellingly, despite these numbers, when asked whether they support Biden's policies on the war, they "only" favor him by a 47% to 39% margin.
In other words they overwhelmingly support Biden's policies but won't say so if they're defined in political terms. (This is often true--polls show vast majorities of Americans support most Biden/Dem agenda domestic agenda items, but that doesn't translate into polling results...
Henry Kissinger used to joke that he would present Nixon with three alternatives on foreign policy issues: global thermonuclear war, complete capitulation and the one he wanted to do. I'm feeling a lot of that vibe in much of the Ukraine analysis I'm reading.
There's a lot of we need a fig leaf for Putin so we don't have a nuclear war or we don't dare escalate because it would risk a nuclear war...or on the other hand, risking nuclear war is no biggie cause he probably won't do it and we'd probably win and that'd show 'em.
The reality is there is probably more escalation we can do without risking a nuclear war and the best off-ramp for Putin is defeating him (though it is up to Ukraine to determine what endgame they seek here...they are the ones suffering, sacrificing & at risk.)
This morning on @Morning_Joe@JoeNBC asked me, and I'm paraphrasing, what it was going to take for the West to defend Ukraine, to step up and defend the innocent people of that country from slaughter at the hands of the Russians. I offered up a pretty standard answer.
I said we would ramp up military aid and so on but that it would take crossing a lot of red lines to get us to act. Sometimes discussions on TV shows just stream by, questions come and answers go and we move on. But I have to say, this question haunts me.
Because letting Ukrainians die is horrific and unjust. The story of the past century is of slaughters and genocides that occurred because the political and military calculus was that the cost of intervention was too high, too risky. And every one of those answers seemed right...
Putin likely knows he cannot win in Ukraine in the sense that he cannot take control of the country and maintain that control. He cannot make Ukraine a vassal state like Belarus. So, it seems likely that for him, the next best option is to destroy Ukraine with maximum brutality.
In so doing, he will be able to say he neutralized Ukraine's threat to Russia. He will send a warning to neighbors that this is what awaits them if he sees them as a threat. And perhaps most importantly, he will send a message to the world that he can act w/complete impunity.
What awaits Ukraine is almost certainly worse than anything we have seen to date. Re: the last point above, Putin will cross red lines to prove that he can do so. He likely believes that communicates a message of power to his people and to the world.
The leader of the GOP did not embrace Putin (or other despots) out of ignorance. He knew what they did. And he admired it. He would "joke" he wished he could brutalize the press like they did. He wanted to suppress dissent like they did. He wanted to shoot peaceful protestors...
...and send in the 82d Airborne division against BLM protestors. He defended right wing thugs. He encouraged people at his rallies to use violence against those with political views. He welcomed and defended Russian attacks on our democracy.
Trump tried to block sanctions against Russia for its abuses and railed furiously when they were imposed against Russia for using chemical weapons against Putin's enemies in the UK. Trump promoted a coup against American democracy.