Thomas C. Theiner Profile picture
Mar 20, 2022 8 tweets 2 min read Read on X
I was asked for the reason that putin/russia is so hell-bent on conquering Mariupol.

Let me explain. Thread:

Originally putin assumed the invasion would be a cakewalk, allowing for a quick annexation of Donetsk and Luhansk (dark red). Other regions (light red) would then

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have seen "spontaneous" "people's republics" appear, which would have demanded annexation to russia too.

putin would have slowly dismembered Ukraine after fake referendums, leaving a rump Ukraine under a russian-controlled quisling government.

That plan failed.

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putin now understands that Ukrainians hate russia and will fight a decades long insurgency if russia occupies their country.

putin now also realizes that he has too few troops to conquer and occupy the southern and eastern parts of Ukraine he originally planned to annex.

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putin's new plan seems to be to annex a smaller part of Ukraine.

Besides Donetsk and Luhansk also:

• southern Kherson (light green)
• southern Zaporizhzhia (light yellow)
• eastern Kharkiv (light purple)

(russia might even try to take all of Kherson (dark green)).

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This territory would be protected on its western side by the Dnieper river, and the eastern Kharkiv part by the Donets river.

If russia annexes these territories then Mykolaiv, Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv are all in easy reach if russia invades again in the future.

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If russia controls these territories then russia controls the water supply for Crimea and can block shipping on the Dnieper.

Mariupol is the second-largest city in these territories and the only major harbor. Mariupol was also the only major Donbas city, that resisted

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russian attempts to take it over in 2014.

Now putin wants to punish the city for having resisted him in 2014; and putin needs the city so he can declare the liberation of Donbas to be complete; and he needs the city before he can annex these territories.

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But putin just needs the city for its symbolic value. He doesn't want the city's people, who defied him before.

Just like Hitler wanted Stalingrad for the symbolism and nothing else, putin wants Mariupol for the symbolism and nothing else. Fascist nihilism then and now.

8/8

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More from @noclador

Mar 8
These are the 🇬🇧 UK's HMS Queen Elizabeth and HMS Prince of Wales aircraft carriers.

First, as you can see in this picture, only one actually carries aircraft. The UK barely had enough money to buy the F-35B for one. For the other the Blairites expected the US Marine Corps
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to provide the required aircraft, because the two carriers were bought so the Royal Navy could fight alongside the US Navy against China in the Pacific.

But the US does NOT want the British carriers anywhere near its carrier strike groups, because the UK carriers would slow
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down a US carrier strike groups, as the UK did not have the money for nuclear propulsion.
And as the UK doesn't have the money for the ships that make up a carrier strike group (destroyers, frigates, submarines) the UK expected the US Navy to detach some of its destroyers and
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Read 9 tweets
Mar 8
🇬🇧 decline: Only one SSN is operational, three are no longer fit for service and got no crews. One carrier has no air wing and has been sent to rust away. The other carrier only has an air wing when the RAF cedes a third of its fighters. Only 1 destroyer is operational. The
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frigates are falling apart. New Type 31 frigates won't get Mark 41 VLS or bow Sonar. The RAF took 48 of its Eurofighters apart, because it got no money for spares. The army has just 14 155mm howitzers. The Ajax vehicle is injuring the troops it carries. The Warrior IFVs are
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outdated and falling apart. They amphibious ships are not deployable / crewed for lack of funds. The UK has not anti-ballistic missile system (e.g.Patriot). There is only money for 12 F-35A, the smallest F-35A order on the planet. The tank force is at its smallest since 1938.
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Read 5 tweets
Mar 4
International Law is worthless paper if you cannot and will not back it up with military power.

Dictators do not care for international law. But they fear the US Air Force. The moment the US signaled it would no longer back "international law" putin annexed Crimea and Assad
1/10
gassed his people. International Law is what defence laggards hide behind to not have to spend for their own security (hoping the US will save them from their irresponsibility) .

European politicians like to grandstand about "international law" but NO European nation has the
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the means (nor the will) to the enforce it. European politicians grandstanding about international law always do so in the belief that the US will enforce their balderdash.
So European politicians lecturing the US about "international law" now are utter morons, because they
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Read 10 tweets
Feb 21
All this "NATO is unprepared for the use of drones like the war in Ukraine" is ridiculous, because:

• of course NATO is unprepared for the use of drones like the war IN (!) Ukraine,
• because that is not how a NATO-russia war will be fought. NATO, even just European NATO,
1/4
fields: 244 F-35, 403 Eurofighter, 183 Rafale, 177 modern F-16, 3 Gripen E, and 896 older fighter types.
A total of 1,906+ fighters (without the US Air Force and Royal Canadian Air Force; and with more new fighters entering European service every week).

russia, when counting
2/4
generously can't even put half that fighter strength into the field, and the 1,010 modern European NATO fighters would devastate russia's fighter force.

With NATO air supremacy comes absolute dominance of the battlefield. Every russian moving near the front would get bombed
3/4
Read 4 tweets
Feb 15
Gripen fans keep hyping the Gripen with fake claims & as long as they do, I will counter them:

Scandinavian Air Force officer about the Gripen E: It can either be fully fueled or fully armed or flown from short runways. Never can 2 of these things be done at the same time.
1/25 Image
The Gripen fans keep claiming that the Gripen has a better range than the F-35 and can fly from short runways... then admit that its max. range can only be achieved with external fuel tanks, which weigh so much that the Gripen E can no longer fly from short runways.
2/n
External fuel tanks also mean: the Gripen becomes slower, the radar cross section increases (making detection more likely), the fuel consumption increases,... and even with all 3 external fuel tanks the Gripen E carries 1,340 kg less fuel than the F-35A carries internally.
3/n
Read 25 tweets
Feb 2
Gripen fans continue to spam my mention with claims how fantastic Sweden's Bas 90 and Gripen combination is... and that it would work for Canada's North too...

Ok, let's quickly compare Canada's three northern territories (Yukon, Northwest, Nunavut) and Sweden... ...
1/6
Land area:
🇸🇪 450,295 km2 (173,860 sq mi)
🇨🇦 terr.: 3,593,589 km2 (173,860 sq mi)

The land area of just the three territories (without Canada's 10 provinces) is already 8 times bigger than all of Sweden...
(In total Canada's land area is 9,984,670 km2
2/6
(3,855,100 sq mi) or 22 times Sweden).

Population:
🇸🇪 10.61 million
🇨🇦 terr.: 0.13 million

Sweden's population is 81.6 times bigger than that of the three territories... and if you look at population density:
🇸🇪 23,6/km2
🇨🇦 terr.: 0,013/km2
3/6
Read 6 tweets

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