Thomas C. Theiner Profile picture
Mar 20, 2022 8 tweets 2 min read Read on X
I was asked for the reason that putin/russia is so hell-bent on conquering Mariupol.

Let me explain. Thread:

Originally putin assumed the invasion would be a cakewalk, allowing for a quick annexation of Donetsk and Luhansk (dark red). Other regions (light red) would then

1/8 Image
have seen "spontaneous" "people's republics" appear, which would have demanded annexation to russia too.

putin would have slowly dismembered Ukraine after fake referendums, leaving a rump Ukraine under a russian-controlled quisling government.

That plan failed.

2/8
putin now understands that Ukrainians hate russia and will fight a decades long insurgency if russia occupies their country.

putin now also realizes that he has too few troops to conquer and occupy the southern and eastern parts of Ukraine he originally planned to annex.

3/8
putin's new plan seems to be to annex a smaller part of Ukraine.

Besides Donetsk and Luhansk also:

• southern Kherson (light green)
• southern Zaporizhzhia (light yellow)
• eastern Kharkiv (light purple)

(russia might even try to take all of Kherson (dark green)).

4/8 Image
This territory would be protected on its western side by the Dnieper river, and the eastern Kharkiv part by the Donets river.

If russia annexes these territories then Mykolaiv, Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv are all in easy reach if russia invades again in the future.

5/8
If russia controls these territories then russia controls the water supply for Crimea and can block shipping on the Dnieper.

Mariupol is the second-largest city in these territories and the only major harbor. Mariupol was also the only major Donbas city, that resisted

6/8
russian attempts to take it over in 2014.

Now putin wants to punish the city for having resisted him in 2014; and putin needs the city so he can declare the liberation of Donbas to be complete; and he needs the city before he can annex these territories.

7/8
But putin just needs the city for its symbolic value. He doesn't want the city's people, who defied him before.

Just like Hitler wanted Stalingrad for the symbolism and nothing else, putin wants Mariupol for the symbolism and nothing else. Fascist nihilism then and now.

8/8

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Thomas C. Theiner

Thomas C. Theiner Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @noclador

Apr 28
How to do mobilization for war in the perfect way: the @USArmy in #WWII:

When Germany invaded Poland the US Army consisted of just 6× divisions (1st ID, 2nd ID, 3rd ID, 1st CAV, Hawaiian Division, Philippine Division).
1/12 Image
In October 1939 the Army added the 5th ID and 6th ID. Afterwards the US Army fielded 8× divisions.

After the Germans invaded France with 141× divisions, the US Army activated another 4× infantry (4th, 7th, 8th, 9th) and 2× armored (1st, 2nd) divisions.

Total: 14× divisions.
2/n Image
In fall of 1940 the National Guard was federalized. This added 10× infantry divisions (27th, 30th, 31st, 32nd, 35th, 36th, 37th, 41st, 44th, 45th).

In spring 1941 a further 8× National Guard divisions were federalized (26th, 28th, 29th, 33rd, 34th, 38th, 40th, 43rd).
3/n
Read 12 tweets
Apr 25
Today Germans found out that raising and stationing a Panzerbrigade in Lithuania will cost up to €11 billion...

Of course, because if you devastate your military for 30 years and create gaps in personnel, materiel, etc. it costs MORE to rebuild than it would have cost to
1/5 Image
maintain your military. Germany between 1989 and 2024 reduced its battalions (active and reserve) by the following %:

CBRN Defense -63,64%
Artillery -92,68%
Reconnaissance -45,45%
Paratroopers -66,67%
Signals -66,67%
Air Defense -100,00%
Gebirgsjäger -25,00%
Panzer -91,76%
2/5
Army Aviation -70,00%
Light Infantry -96,98%
Logistics -83,70%
Panzergrenadier -82,81%
Engineers -83,33%
Medical -84,00%
Bridging -92,86%

Total: -87,47%

Disbanded the units, paid to have the equipment and materiel scrapped, sold of the bases, and retired the people with the
3/5 Image
Read 5 tweets
Apr 19
The air defense of a large country is difficult.

People have forgotten the insane density (and cost) of NATO's Cold War SAM belts.

In Germany alone the HAWK belt consisted of (from North to South):
• 24× German
• 12× Dutch
• 8x Belgian
• 35× US Army
• 12× German

1/8 Image
HAWK sites, each of which was filled with radars and missile launchers. (Photo: the Dutch HAWK site on Velmerstot in Germany).

Between the SAM belt and the border mobile radars, and short range air defense systems like Gepard, Roland, Chaparral, VADS, etc. as well as mobile
2/8 Image
Javelin and Stinger teams covered the units operating there.

And behind the HAWK SAM (Surface to Air Missile) belt followed a second SAM belt, with long range NIKE HERCULES missiles, which carried nuclear warheads. All this was backed up by German, US Air Force, British
3/8 Image
Read 8 tweets
Apr 2
On April Fool's Day the head of the German Navy's Naval Aviation the #Marineflieger joked that the Marineflieger would finally get fighter jets again...

This should NOT be a joke.
This should be a high priority investment for the Bundeswehr.

A thread about 🇩🇪🇩🇰🇸🇪🇫🇮🇵🇱🇬🇧:
1/17 Image
During the Cold War the West German & Danish navies' tasks were to:
• prevent the Soviet Baltic, East German & Polish fleets from transiting the Skagerrak
• prevent Warsaw Pact amphibious landings on the Danish isles

For this the German forces in Schleswig Holstein & the
2/17
Danish military were assigned to NATO's Allied Forces Baltic Approaches (BALTAP) Command.

To defend the sea approaches BALTAP had 30 submarines, 56 missile boats, some 60 mine layers, and land based Harpoon missile batteries (which were transferred to Ukraine in June 2022).
3/17 Image
Read 17 tweets
Mar 31
The Soviet Union was losing the war against Germany.

Only the 🇺🇸 US industry saved the Soviets.

In 1941 in seven months of war in the East the Wehrmacht suffered 285,400 irrecoverable losses vs. 3,137,673 irrecoverable Soviet losses. A ratio of 1 to 11 (!).
1/6 Image
In the 12 months of 1942 the Wehrmacht suffered 500,700 irrecoverable losses vs. 3,258,216 Soviet irrecoverable losses. A ratio of 1 to 6.5.

BUT from 1941 to 1942 Soviet average monthly losses decreased by 176,700 troops... because US Lend/Lease materiel began to arrive.
2/6 Image
Especially helpful were 312,600 American trucks (which incl. about 187,900 Studebaker US6). This allowed the Soviets to motorize their rifle divisions and vastly improved Red Army logistics. (The Soviet Union only produced 150,000 trucks during the entire war).
3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets
Mar 31
About the loss of British combat power:

During the Cold War the British Army was the smallest of the four big (🇬🇧🇫🇷🇩🇪🇮🇹) European NATO armies.

The British Army fielded 13 brigades (+ the Royal Marines' Commando brigade), while Germany fielded 38 and Italy 25 brigades.
1/6 Image
France fielded 12 divisions, which each had the strength of 2× standard NATO brigades.

But no one complained, because at the time the Royal Air Force was the biggest air force on the continent with some 800+ fighters & bombers. Only France fielded a comparable air force.
2/6 Image
And the Royal Navy was the second biggest navy in NATO with more ocean-going ships than the French, German and Italian navies combined (!).

But after the Cold War, and especially under the Tory governments since 2010, the British Armed Forces have been wrecked.
3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(