I was asked for the reason that putin/russia is so hell-bent on conquering Mariupol.
Let me explain. Thread:
Originally putin assumed the invasion would be a cakewalk, allowing for a quick annexation of Donetsk and Luhansk (dark red). Other regions (light red) would then
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have seen "spontaneous" "people's republics" appear, which would have demanded annexation to russia too.
putin would have slowly dismembered Ukraine after fake referendums, leaving a rump Ukraine under a russian-controlled quisling government.
That plan failed.
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putin now understands that Ukrainians hate russia and will fight a decades long insurgency if russia occupies their country.
putin now also realizes that he has too few troops to conquer and occupy the southern and eastern parts of Ukraine he originally planned to annex.
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putin's new plan seems to be to annex a smaller part of Ukraine.
(russia might even try to take all of Kherson (dark green)).
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This territory would be protected on its western side by the Dnieper river, and the eastern Kharkiv part by the Donets river.
If russia annexes these territories then Mykolaiv, Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv are all in easy reach if russia invades again in the future.
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If russia controls these territories then russia controls the water supply for Crimea and can block shipping on the Dnieper.
Mariupol is the second-largest city in these territories and the only major harbor. Mariupol was also the only major Donbas city, that resisted
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russian attempts to take it over in 2014.
Now putin wants to punish the city for having resisted him in 2014; and putin needs the city so he can declare the liberation of Donbas to be complete; and he needs the city before he can annex these territories.
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But putin just needs the city for its symbolic value. He doesn't want the city's people, who defied him before.
Just like Hitler wanted Stalingrad for the symbolism and nothing else, putin wants Mariupol for the symbolism and nothing else. Fascist nihilism then and now.
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The @RoyalAirForce - once the strongest air force in Western Europe... but now...
7 Eurofighter Typhoon squadrons are expected to fulfill the tasks, for which 35 years ago the RAF fielded 40 squadrons (31 active & 4 reserve + 5 shadow squadrons, which would have been formed
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from the personnel & fighters of the RAF's operational conversion units).
At the end of the Cold War these 40 squadrons were assigned to 4 commands, each with a specific mission & enough aircraft to fulfill their mission.
No. 1 Group was tasked with striking Soviet forces
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in Northern Germany, including with WE.177 tactical nukes.
The Group fielded 8 active, 4 reserve and 2 shadow squadrons, which flew Tornado GR1, Jaguar GR1A, and Harrier GR5 fighters (the reserve squadrons flew Hawk T1A). The group also included the RAF's 3 aerial
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I was asked to talk about Austria's Armed Forces... which is a bit boring, because surprisingly their armed forces get so much right.
Yes, the Austrians are some of the worst sanctions ignorers when it comes to russia, and they host the biggest russian signals intelligence
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station outside of russia, and are home to the largest number of russian intelligence operators after London, but when it comes to the Austrian Army and Austrian Air Force procurement there is little to criticize... except of course that many of their officers are compromised 2/n
by the russians and the austrian defence ministry leaks every bit of intelligence to moscow...
Anyway, unlike the other neutral EU member (an island that spends GDP-wise less on its armed forces than the Vatican), Austria has a proper air force and a proper army; both of 3/n
Italy has ordered its first KF41 Lynx infantry fighting vehicles... but there is a twist.
As the Italian Army is in a rush to ready its forces to battle invading russians in the Baltics (& Finland), the first 5 × KF41 will arrive within weeks in the Hungarian configuration. 1/8
That means there won't be any Italianization of the first 5 × KF41. The Italian Army feels that it can't wait for that. Training has to start ASAP.
Therefore these 5 × KF41 will come with Rheinmetall's Lance Turret with 30mm MK30-2/ABM autocannon. Along with these KF41 Italy 2/8
will receive training and simulation systems to begin training troops ASAP.
This order also includes 16 × KF41 in a hybrid version: the chassis will come from the Hungarian production line, but these KF41 will receive Leonardo's Hitfist turret with Leonardo's 30mm X-Gun. 3/8
I am relaxed about the US ending the rotation of a light brigade through Romania.
Yes, it is bad optics and russia will use it for its propaganda, BUT two armored brigades, a combat aviation brigade, a division artillery, a division sustainment brigade, and a division HQ 1/4
continue to rotate to Poland and the Baltics.
Right now the:
• 3rd Infantry Division HQ (arrived in Poland 4 days ago - photo)
• 1st Armored Brigade, 1st Infantry Division
• 3rd Armored Brigade, 1st Cavalry Division
• 3rd Division Artillery
• 3rd Combat Aviation Brigade 2/4
are in Poland and the Baltics.
Ending the rotation of a light brigade to Romania is a far less bad than ending the rotation of the armored brigades. It is also understandable as the US Army's light divisions (10th Mountain, 25th Infantry, 82nd Airborne, 101st Airborne) are
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Of course russia can quickly seize the Suwałki Gap and cut of the Baltics from the rest of NATO... but have you had a look at Kaliningrad's border and the flat dry country beyond?
There are 9 Polish brigades in that area (and 11 in reserve, with 4 more forming). Sure russia 1/5
could move 50,000+ men to Kaliningrad to secure the border or build a defence line along the Pregoła river... but those need to be supplied from Belarus, which also is easily invaded unless russia sends 50,000+ troops to secure its flank there. A buildup of 200,000+ russian
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troops in Belarus would be noticed by NATO (and ordinary people in Belarus, who would upload 100s of videos of the arriving russians).
In summary the main risk isn't that russia suddenly seizes and fortifies the Suwałki Gap... the main risk is that russia starts building up
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The North Atlantic - one of the key battles in a russia-Europe war.
If Europe is defeated here, which with Europe's current forces and capabilities, is almost certain to happen... then russia can nuke the UK without fear of retaliation.
This will be a unsettling thread:
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This battle will be very different from the battles in the Black Sea and Baltic Sea, which I discussed in an early thread, which is linked below.
To understand the North Atlantic Battle we need to look at Imperial Germany's WWI submarine campaign,