Thomas C. Theiner Profile picture
Mar 20, 2022 8 tweets 2 min read Read on X
I was asked for the reason that putin/russia is so hell-bent on conquering Mariupol.

Let me explain. Thread:

Originally putin assumed the invasion would be a cakewalk, allowing for a quick annexation of Donetsk and Luhansk (dark red). Other regions (light red) would then

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have seen "spontaneous" "people's republics" appear, which would have demanded annexation to russia too.

putin would have slowly dismembered Ukraine after fake referendums, leaving a rump Ukraine under a russian-controlled quisling government.

That plan failed.

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putin now understands that Ukrainians hate russia and will fight a decades long insurgency if russia occupies their country.

putin now also realizes that he has too few troops to conquer and occupy the southern and eastern parts of Ukraine he originally planned to annex.

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putin's new plan seems to be to annex a smaller part of Ukraine.

Besides Donetsk and Luhansk also:

• southern Kherson (light green)
• southern Zaporizhzhia (light yellow)
• eastern Kharkiv (light purple)

(russia might even try to take all of Kherson (dark green)).

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This territory would be protected on its western side by the Dnieper river, and the eastern Kharkiv part by the Donets river.

If russia annexes these territories then Mykolaiv, Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv are all in easy reach if russia invades again in the future.

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If russia controls these territories then russia controls the water supply for Crimea and can block shipping on the Dnieper.

Mariupol is the second-largest city in these territories and the only major harbor. Mariupol was also the only major Donbas city, that resisted

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russian attempts to take it over in 2014.

Now putin wants to punish the city for having resisted him in 2014; and putin needs the city so he can declare the liberation of Donbas to be complete; and he needs the city before he can annex these territories.

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But putin just needs the city for its symbolic value. He doesn't want the city's people, who defied him before.

Just like Hitler wanted Stalingrad for the symbolism and nothing else, putin wants Mariupol for the symbolism and nothing else. Fascist nihilism then and now.

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More from @noclador

Jul 4
This is Berlin.

And this is how Berlin would look like 3 days after putin attacks Europe... because Germany doesn't have the air defence ammo to defend any of its city for more than 2 days.
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This is Copenhagen.

And this is how Copenhagen would look like the morning after putin attacks Europe... because Denmark doesn't have any air defence to defend itself.
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This is Paris.

And this is how Paris would look like a day after putin attacks Europe... because France only has SAMP/T air defence systems, which is as of now has very limited capabilities against ballistic missiles.
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Read 12 tweets
Jun 1
Let's run some numbers on Ukraine's brilliant operation to take out russia's strategic aviation deep in russia and Siberia.

8× containers are visible in this image

As Ukraine sent 2× containers to each of the 5× air bases they attacked, another 2× must be out of sight.
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Each container roof seems to have housed 9 compartments. Here we can see that at 3× per compartments, but they might have even had space for 4× drones.
Quick math: that's 27× or 36× drones.
Two containers per air base: 54× or 72× drones

But (!) not all compartments likely
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held drones.

As we saw in this video from on of the containers launching drones, the roof of the containers slid to the side and fell down... so one compartment might have housed the motor and system to slide the roof off.

Also all the containers self-destructed once they
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Read 6 tweets
Apr 3
Italy's 61º Stormo received enough of the new T-345A basic jet trainers to begin pilot training this June.

As everyone knows, I am all for growing European militaries and adding capabilities... but why does EVERYTHING have to be with US engines?

Europe must stop buying US
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made kit, components and weapon systems.

The Italian T-345A (left) and the Czech L-39 Skyfox (right) are the only two basic jet trainers currently in production in Europe... and both use a Williams International FJ44-4M turbofan made in Ogden, Utah.

Yes, there are more
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American components than just the engines in both, but as aircraft are designed around their engines Europe needs to stop buying American and start building engines again.

Both planes the T-345A and L-39 Skyfox replace used European engines: the Italian MB-339 (pic)
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Read 23 tweets
Mar 28
To my American followers: it is time to plan for exile.

Doesn't mean you will have to leave, but based on experiences of Jews fleeing Nazi Germany after 1933 here are a few things to make escape and exile easier:

1) get an up to date passport (the regime might no issue you
1/12
one in the future thus stranding you)
2) if possible get a passport from another nation. It doesn't matter which; just get a passport the regime can't cancel.
3) open bank accounts in a foreign nation (I can't stress this enough! The regime will freeze your American accounts,
2/n
which will prevent you i.e. from booking a flight; and you will arrive in another nation penniless if you do not shift your funds into a non-American bank in a non-American nation ASAP)
4) plan for the regime putting you on a no-fly list. How can you get to the border and to
3/n
Read 12 tweets
Mar 26
This is the wing, which trains the fighter pilots of 🇧🇪Belgium, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇩🇪 Germany, the 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇳🇴 Norway and 🇷🇴 Romania.

But all those people are wearing 🇺🇸 US Air Force uniforms... well, of course - the aforementioned countries' fighter pilots are trained by
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the US Air Force's 80th Flying Training Wing based at Sheppard Air Force Base in Texas, which is home to the Euro-NATO Joint Jet Pilot Training.

Canada, Greece, Italy (pic), Portugal, Spain, Türkiye and the United Kingdom also have the right to train pilots at Sheppard, but
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those nations also retain a national training pipeline, that Trump/Musk can't shut down.

Germany even moved basic training with Grob 120TP trainers to Phoenix Goodyear Airport in Arizona.

Yes, it makes sense to bundle the advanced and jet training of European air forces,
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Read 8 tweets
Mar 24
I am sorry 🇸🇪 Sweden, but I must talk about the Blekinge-class submarine procurement disaster.

Because it exemplifies what happens, when a nation guts its defence budget AND nonetheless demands from its defence industry to deliver cutting edge systems.

This never works!
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Sweden built its first submarine HM Hajen (pic) in 1904.

Since then Sweden continuously built submarines at Kockums' shipyard in Malmö and at the state owned Karlskrona shipyard.

Between December 1954 and December 1988 (34 years) the two yards launched 24 newly built and
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6 upgraded submarines (The latter, the Jaktubåtarna boats, were extensively reconstructed WWII era coastal submarines).

From 1960 to 1979 Swedish defence spending was always above 3%... in 1980 the decline began, but when the last Västergötland-class submarine was launched
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Read 25 tweets

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