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Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
@JominiW
Mar 21, 2022 • 15 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 25: Russian forces generally remain static and continue their transition to defensive operations in the Kyiv and Southern areas of operation. Only limited offensive action took place along the Donets River line & Mariupol. #UkraineRussianWar Image
2/ Humanitarian Impact. Refugees in various European countries exceeds 4.2 million, with 1.85 million IDPs, mostly in western Ukraine. Russian injustices against the Ukrainian populace multiple by the day; kidnappings and seizure of property continues.
3/ Today’s update will focus on the Kyiv area, providing a brief overview of the situation in the capital and surrounding countryside as Russian troops dig in. This is meant to set conditions for a more in-depth study of each AO as the war enters a protracted campaign.
4/ Weather assessment. In Kyiv, visibility & wind speed are favorable for VKS & UAF to execute aerospace operations. Temperatures generally will remain between 14/0 C, wind speed generally favors artillery fire, though there is an increased likelihood for overshooting targets.
5/ Kyiv AO assessments. There has been no change to the situation in Kyiv over the past 48 hours. Russian forces have begun the process to transition from offensive operations to a long-term defense of occupied territory in west, NW, and NE Kyiv. #Kyivunderattack Image
6/ It clear that short term political objectives are overriding long-term military success. Russian forces will focus on entrenching their positions while moving forward heavy artillery and rockets to increase and intensify the bombardment of Kyiv.
7/ This move is meant to place political pressure on the Ukrainian government to negotiate with the Kremlin on terms the Russian hope are favorable. This will tie down Ukrainian forces in the defense of Kyiv, reducing the likelihood of a major counteroffensive in other regions. Image
8/ Aerospace Assessment. Russia’s recent claim of the employment of hypersonic missiles in Ukraine can be assessed to intensify political pressure on the Ukrainian government than to regain operational momentum, given that only two have been used.
9/ The Russians continue to struggle with employing many of its newer MLRS system that could have a dramatic tactical impact but have failed to so far due to poor planning and inadequate battlefield adaptability.
10/ Information War. Russia continues to fall behind in the information sphere. So long as images and messaging from occupied towns and cities can reach the Ukrainian people and international community, resistance will persist and grow.
11/ This makes demands, like the recent Russian MoD call for the surrender of Mariupol by 21 March, seem hollow & desperate. Russia has yet to produce a military situation in which surrender is preferable to continued resistance & is unlikely to do so.
12/ Battle Damage Assessment. Russian equipment and personnel losses continue to mount. In Kyiv the 331st Guards Airborne Regiment is assessed as being destroyed, it can no longer function as a cohesive unit, the 6th Tank Regiment is close to this too.
13/ Tomorrow’s update will focus on the Sumy-Chernihiv AO. I will soon be posting an in-depth look at the first month of the war, analyzing how the Ukrainian response to the Russian invasion resulted in a strategic victory for Ukraine & why the Russian military has so far failed. Image
14/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War from a variety of sources. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.
15/ Information regarding Ukrainian units are meant to be general, are based on Ukrainian General Staff statements and social media posts, official Ukrainian government press releases, and local news. It does not depict current unit movements.

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More from @JominiW

Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Mar 10
1/9 🌍 Global Situation Update; Iran war D+10, Russo-Ukrainian War D+1,476: The international security architecture is facing unprecedented concurrent stress. As of March 10, 2026, the international system is simultaneously managing two high-intensity, theater-level conflicts that have fundamentally fractured the traditional concept of integrated deterrence. Here is a macro-strategic and tactical synthesis of Operations Epic Fury, Lion's Roar, and True Promise IV in the Middle Eastern theater of War and the Ukrainian TVD. #Irán #EpicFury #LionsRoar #TruePromise4 #UkraineWar #straightofhormuz
2a/9 🇺🇸🇮🇱 Persian Gulf Theater of Operations: Day 11 marks the kinetic zenith of Operations Epic Fury & Lion's Roar thus far. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and Gen. Dan Caine confirmed March 10 as the "most intense day of strikes inside Iran". Over 5,000 targets (IRGC HQs, IADS, drone hubs) have been dismantled to date.
2b/9 🇺🇸 The sheer scale and intensity of Operation Epic Fury have exposed critical vulnerabilities within the United States defense industrial base. The Pentagon reportedly expended an estimated $5.6 billion in precision munitions during the first 48 hours of the campaign alone.

This burn rate has triggered immediate congressional alarm regarding the rapid depletion of American weapon stockpiles, mirroring and severely exacerbating the magazine depth crisis previously observed during the arming of Ukraine. The operational efficacy of the Western security architecture is currently undergoing a structural stress test, forcing a rapid transition from a posture of sustainable power projection to a mathematically grueling war of industrial attrition.
Read 18 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Mar 9
1/ Global Situation Update; Iran war D+9, Russo-Ukrainian War D+1,475: The Persian Gulf and Ukrainian theaters are currently defined by unprecedented aerospace saturation, high-intensity ground maneuverability, and massive macroeconomic volatility. A thread on the multi-domain kinetic cascade. 🧵 #USIranWar #Epicfury #LionsRoar #TruePromise4 #UkraineWar
2a/ 🇺🇸🇮🇱 Persian Gulf Theater of Operations: The US-Israeli campaign (Epic Fury/Lion's Roar) has entered a grinding, multi-domain attrition phase. The IDF reports launching over 1,600 strike sorties since the operation's inception. Despite this intense bombardment, the Iranian regime's command structure has consolidated.
2b/ 🇺🇸To maintain this unrelenting operational tempo and secure the surrounding maritime corridors, the United States established a robust three-carrier posture: the USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) positioned in the Eastern Mediterranean, the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) operating in the Arabian Sea, and the USS George Washington (CVN-73) forward-deployed at Yokosuka to maintain deterrence in the Pacific theater. The USS George H.W. Bush (CVN-77) Carrier Strike Group is preparing to deploy to support Operation Epic Fury, likely joining the USS Gerald R. Ford in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Read 21 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Mar 9
1/10 Global Situation Update; Iran war D+8, Russo-Ukrainian War D+1,474: The international security architecture continues to experience severe stress. High-intensity multi-domain operations across the Middle East (Epic Fury/Lion's Roar/True Promise IV) and Eastern Europe are beginning to strategically converge.
#IranWar2026 #EpicFury #LionsRoar #TruePromise4 #USIranWar #UkraineRussiaWar
2/10 🇮🇷 Strategic Pivot: Iran's Assembly of Experts has officially named 56-year-old Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader. This cements IRGC hardline control and marks the first hereditary transfer of supreme power since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. U.S. President Trump immediately condemned the succession, stating the new leader will not "last long" without U.S. approval.

x.com/MonitorX99800/…
3/10 🇺🇸 Operation Epic Fury: CENTCOM's aerospace campaign remains relentless. U.S. B-2 Spirit stealth bombers dropped dozens of 2,000-lb penetrator munitions specifically targeting deeply buried IRGC ballistic missile launchers. Concurrently, the U.S. military confirmed a 7th American service member died from injuries sustained during an earlier March 1 attack in Saudi Arabia.

x.com/johnkonrad/sta…
Read 10 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Mar 8
1/ 🌍 Daily Tactical Update, Iran War D+7, Russo-Ukraine War D+1,473: The global security architecture is fracturing simultaneously across two primary theaters of war. The US-Israeli Coalition continues its air campaign (Epic Fury/Lion's Roar), while it faces an asymmetric Iranian response (True Promise IV), and the Russo-Ukrainian War sees major multi-domain innovations. A thread 🧵
#IranWar #IranIsraelWar #EpicFury #LionsRoar #TruePromise4
2/ 🇮🇷🇦🇪 Persian Gulf Theater of Operations: Iran's "True Promise IV" reached a critical inflection point today. An Iranian OWA drone penetrated UAE air defenses, striking Dubai Intl Airport (DXB) near Concourse A. Operations were temporarily suspended, which paralyzed Israeli repatriation airlifts. The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad and the Consulate in Erbil, Iraq, came under drone and rocket attack by Iranian forces.

x.com/sentdefender/s…
3/ 🇮🇷 Iranian Command Rupture: Paradoxically, Iranian President Pezeshkian issued a televised "apology" and conditional ceasefire to Gulf states today. In contrast, the IRGC issued a statement calling President Pezeshkian's message a “mistake”, encouraging Pezeshkian's comments to be ignored. The juxtaposition of this diplomatic off-ramp with the DXB strike strongly indicates the Provisional Leadership Council has lost operational control of forward IRGC launch units.

x.com/DrEliDavid/sta…
Read 10 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Mar 7
1/7 Daily Tactical Update, Iran War D+6 / Russo-Ukraine War D+ 1,472: We are observing synchronized, high-intensity multi-domain combat operations across two distinct theaters—the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Here is a brief OSINT and strategic rollup of the last 24 hours. 🧵👇 #IranIsraelUSWar #EpicFury #LionsRoar #TruePromiseIV
2/7 🇮🇷/🇺🇸/🇮🇱 Operations Epic Fury & Lion's Roar: The joint US-Israeli campaign has entered its 7th day. Allied forces have struck a combined 4,500+ targets (over 2,000 US strikes and 2,500 Israeli strikes), establishing near-total air superiority. March 6 kinetic strikes heavily degraded regime infrastructure in Tehran, completely destroying the Diplomatic Police Center and the Azadi Sports Complex.

x.com/shashj/status/…
3/7 🇮🇷 Operation True Promise IV: Iran continues its massive, multi-axis retaliation across the Persian Gulf and the Levant, utilizing ballistic missiles and one-way attack (OWA) drones. The sheer volume of Shahed-class munitions continues to strain regional integrated air defense systems (IADS), highlighting the rapid maturation of aerospace saturation tactics.

x.com/business/statu…
Read 7 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Mar 6
1/ Iran War Update, D+5: Day 6 of the war with Iran has seen continued regional escalation as the US/Israeli joint offensives-Operations Epic Fury & Lion’s Roar- continue to hammer Iranian defenses and critical infrastructure as the Iranians respond with retaliatory strikes throughout the Middle East as part of Operation True Promise IV.
2/ Operation Epic Fury (U.S.) & Lion’s Roar: Israel: CENTCOM reports the first 100 hours decimated the IRGC’s command structure. The joint operation is heavily targeting Iranian missile depots (U.S.) as the Israeli Air Force continues to target and dismantle Iranian military assets and facilities.

3/ Operation True Promise IV: Tehran continues to conduct ballistic missile and drone swarm attacks against Israel, U.S. bases, and the Gulf states (UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain). Although coalition air defenses maintain high interception rates, the volume of projectiles continues to stress coalition air defense systems.

Read 6 tweets

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