Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
@JominiW
Mar 21, 2022 • 15 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 25: Russian forces generally remain static and continue their transition to defensive operations in the Kyiv and Southern areas of operation. Only limited offensive action took place along the Donets River line & Mariupol. #UkraineRussianWar Image
2/ Humanitarian Impact. Refugees in various European countries exceeds 4.2 million, with 1.85 million IDPs, mostly in western Ukraine. Russian injustices against the Ukrainian populace multiple by the day; kidnappings and seizure of property continues.
3/ Today’s update will focus on the Kyiv area, providing a brief overview of the situation in the capital and surrounding countryside as Russian troops dig in. This is meant to set conditions for a more in-depth study of each AO as the war enters a protracted campaign.
4/ Weather assessment. In Kyiv, visibility & wind speed are favorable for VKS & UAF to execute aerospace operations. Temperatures generally will remain between 14/0 C, wind speed generally favors artillery fire, though there is an increased likelihood for overshooting targets.
5/ Kyiv AO assessments. There has been no change to the situation in Kyiv over the past 48 hours. Russian forces have begun the process to transition from offensive operations to a long-term defense of occupied territory in west, NW, and NE Kyiv. #Kyivunderattack Image
6/ It clear that short term political objectives are overriding long-term military success. Russian forces will focus on entrenching their positions while moving forward heavy artillery and rockets to increase and intensify the bombardment of Kyiv.
7/ This move is meant to place political pressure on the Ukrainian government to negotiate with the Kremlin on terms the Russian hope are favorable. This will tie down Ukrainian forces in the defense of Kyiv, reducing the likelihood of a major counteroffensive in other regions. Image
8/ Aerospace Assessment. Russia’s recent claim of the employment of hypersonic missiles in Ukraine can be assessed to intensify political pressure on the Ukrainian government than to regain operational momentum, given that only two have been used.
9/ The Russians continue to struggle with employing many of its newer MLRS system that could have a dramatic tactical impact but have failed to so far due to poor planning and inadequate battlefield adaptability.
10/ Information War. Russia continues to fall behind in the information sphere. So long as images and messaging from occupied towns and cities can reach the Ukrainian people and international community, resistance will persist and grow.
11/ This makes demands, like the recent Russian MoD call for the surrender of Mariupol by 21 March, seem hollow & desperate. Russia has yet to produce a military situation in which surrender is preferable to continued resistance & is unlikely to do so.
12/ Battle Damage Assessment. Russian equipment and personnel losses continue to mount. In Kyiv the 331st Guards Airborne Regiment is assessed as being destroyed, it can no longer function as a cohesive unit, the 6th Tank Regiment is close to this too.
13/ Tomorrow’s update will focus on the Sumy-Chernihiv AO. I will soon be posting an in-depth look at the first month of the war, analyzing how the Ukrainian response to the Russian invasion resulted in a strategic victory for Ukraine & why the Russian military has so far failed. Image
14/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War from a variety of sources. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.
15/ Information regarding Ukrainian units are meant to be general, are based on Ukrainian General Staff statements and social media posts, official Ukrainian government press releases, and local news. It does not depict current unit movements.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West

Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @JominiW

Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Mar 14
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1114: Fierce combat persisted across the Donbas Strategic Direction, especially north of Chasiv Yar and in the Kostiantynopil regions. Russian troops made attempts to penetrate Ukrainian defensive positions using heavy artillery and infantry assaults but encountered strong resistance, leading to limited territorial advances.

In the Southern Strategic Direction, Ukrainian forces executed precise strikes on Russian ammunition depots in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, which disrupted supply lines and hampered Russian artillery effectiveness.

The Northern Strategic Direction saw an uptick in cross-border shelling from Russian forces into Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, which led Ukraine to bolster its defensive setups in these areas.

Concurrently, Russian missile and drone attacks on critical Ukrainian infrastructure continued, with Ukrainian air defenses successfully intercepting most incoming threats; however, there was some minor damage to energy facilities in Kyiv and Dnipro.
#UkraineRussiaWar #Kursk #SudzhaImage
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
Image
Image
Image
3/ Operational Direction Kursk: In the past two and a half weeks, OUV Kursk has effectively utilized its operational advantages over recent months to defeat OTU Siversk in the Kursk Oblast. While it is nearly certain OTU Siversk will shift to a defensive posture in Sumy Oblast, it’s uncertain how much force structure OUV Kursk will retain for future operations.Image
Read 11 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Mar 12
1/ A breakthrough or a deadlock? The Jeddah agreement, reached on March 11, 2025, between U.S. and Ukrainian officials, marks a significant development in efforts to address the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. This comprehensive agreement includes a cease-fire proposal and economic terms, with mixed reactions from Russia. As the world watches, all eyes are on Moscow's response. Will this lead to peace or another impasse? Is this the road to Minsk III? Here are the key details:
#UkraineWar #Ceasefire #Geopolitics

x.com/Mylovanov/stat…
2/ Cease-Fire Proposal
The centerpiece of the Jeddah agreement is a U.S.-proposed 30-day cease-fire between Ukraine and Russia. The main aspects of this cease-fire include:

1. Duration: An immediate, interim period of 30 days that can be extended by mutual agreement.
2. Scope: The ceasefire encompasses the entire front line of the conflict, including aerial and naval operations.
3. Comprehensive coverage: It encompasses all forms of combat, including missile, drone, and bomb attacks.
4. Conditional implementation: The cease-fire depends on Russia's acceptance and simultaneous implementation.

x.com/ChrisO_wiki/st…
3/ Humanitarian Efforts
As part of the cease-fire agreement, several humanitarian initiatives are proposed:

1. Exchange of prisoners of war.
2. Release of civilian detainees.
3. Return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children. Image
Read 8 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Feb 25
1/ Ukrainian TVD Operational Update (Day 1096): February 2025 saw intensifying military operations throughout the Ukrainian TVD, with both sides focusing on strategic air campaigns and continued Russian offensive on multiple fronts. Russia continued its missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian critical infrastructure, targeting energy grids and transportation hubs to disrupt military logistics and civilian morale. Meanwhile, Ukraine escalated its use of long-range drones and precision missile strikes, hitting Russian oil refineries and logistical hubs deep in Russian territory, including key sites in Belgorod and Kursk.

On the political front, Ukraine secured additional Western military aid, including French Mirage 2000 fighter jets, while NATO reaffirmed its support amidst growing concerns about potential escalation. Domestically, Russia faced increasing discontent among its population due to Ukrainian strikes on its territory, while sanctions-induced economic stagnation and logistical strain further challenged its war effort.

Economically, Ukraine struggled with energy shortages caused by continued Russian strikes, but international financial aid and grain export corridors through the Black Sea provided a lifeline. The conflict remains entrenched, with both nations locked in a war of attrition, as neither side achieved decisive breakthroughs on the battlefield or in negotiations. #UkraineWar #Donbass #Pokrovsk #Kupyansk #Pishchance #VelykaNovosilka #Kurakhove #ChasivYar #siverekImage
2/ Fourth Year of the War Begins: Today marks a solemn day for Ukraine and the international community. Three years have passed since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine commenced. Three years later, much has changed, but one constant that has remained is the resolve of the Ukrainian people to defy Russian aggression and the conviction of those in the West willing to oppose it. Ukraine has shown the world what Patriots are made of. #SlavaUkraini
x.com/ZelenskyyUa/st…
3/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
Image
Image
Image
Read 25 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Feb 12
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1083: Today's DTU focuses on actions along the Donetsk Front from 08-11 February, 2025. #Siversk #Donbas #ChasivYar #Toretsk #Pokrovsk #NovyKomar #VelykaNovosilka #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Russia #Ukraine #SlavaUkraini Image
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
Image
Image
Image
3/ Operational Overview: The Donetsk Oblast serves as the critical front for the Ground Forces of the Russian Federation (SVRF). The primary focus of OUGRV-Ukraine operations is the capture of southern Donetsk Oblast, which will facilitate advances into the less fortified areas of western and central Donetsk.

In the OSV Yug Area of Responsibility, the 3d Guards Combined Arms Army has made minor advancements in the Siversk region. In the Chasiv Yar area, VDV and Spetsnaz units have achieved significant tactical control over the northern and central sections of the town. The 41st Guards Combined Arms Army has established control over most of Toretsk. Yet, Ukrainian forces continue to resist in the northern and northwest outskirts of the city. While OSVs Tsentr and Vostok are making daily advancements in southern Donetsk, OUV Donetsk is successfully conducting delaying operations despite intense pressure.Image
Read 14 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Feb 1
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1073: Today's DTU focuses on actions in the Siversk Operational Direction during January 2025. #Siversk #Donbas #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Russia #Ukraine #SlavaUkraini Image
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
Image
Image
Image
3/ Operational Overview: The Siversk OD is not only militarily sensitive for Russia and Ukraine but also politically, especially for Russia. Since the fall of Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, and Popasna, Siversk has been a key operational hub. It occupies a crucial position within the OSUV Khortytsia area of responsibility. It acts as a coordination center between OTU Lyman and OTU Luhansk to defend the Slovyansk/Kramatorsk urban conglomerate, a critical strategic point in the Donbas SD. Additionally, it serves as the entry point into northern Donetsk Oblast.

Little has changed in the Siversk OD for almost two and a half years. It is a principal source of Russian military frustration, exemplifying the inadequacies of the Russian Armed Forces in achieving a decisive victory over Ukraine and the Ukrainian ability to hold their territory and outfight the Russians.Image
Read 9 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Jan 28
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1069: Today's DTU focuses on actions in the Southern Donetsk Front from January 22-27, which includes the Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka Operational Directions. #Pokrovsk #VelykaNovosilka #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Russia Image
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
Image
Image
Image
3/ Operational Overview: Major Viktor Tregubov, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Grouping of Forces (OSUV) Khortytsia, stated that the Russians are trying to bypass Pokrovsk from the western side, looking for vulnerabilities in the Ukrainian defenses to capture the city. Tregubov also suggested that the Russians would not try to reach the Dnipropetrovsk region but concentrate on capturing Pokrovsk city. The major stated that the Russians maintain their daily average of 50-60 combat actions along this sector of the front.Image
Read 10 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(