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Jomini of the West Profile picture
@JominiW
Mar 21, 2022 • 15 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 25: Russian forces generally remain static and continue their transition to defensive operations in the Kyiv and Southern areas of operation. Only limited offensive action took place along the Donets River line & Mariupol. #UkraineRussianWar Image
2/ Humanitarian Impact. Refugees in various European countries exceeds 4.2 million, with 1.85 million IDPs, mostly in western Ukraine. Russian injustices against the Ukrainian populace multiple by the day; kidnappings and seizure of property continues.
3/ Today’s update will focus on the Kyiv area, providing a brief overview of the situation in the capital and surrounding countryside as Russian troops dig in. This is meant to set conditions for a more in-depth study of each AO as the war enters a protracted campaign.
4/ Weather assessment. In Kyiv, visibility & wind speed are favorable for VKS & UAF to execute aerospace operations. Temperatures generally will remain between 14/0 C, wind speed generally favors artillery fire, though there is an increased likelihood for overshooting targets.
5/ Kyiv AO assessments. There has been no change to the situation in Kyiv over the past 48 hours. Russian forces have begun the process to transition from offensive operations to a long-term defense of occupied territory in west, NW, and NE Kyiv. #Kyivunderattack Image
6/ It clear that short term political objectives are overriding long-term military success. Russian forces will focus on entrenching their positions while moving forward heavy artillery and rockets to increase and intensify the bombardment of Kyiv.
7/ This move is meant to place political pressure on the Ukrainian government to negotiate with the Kremlin on terms the Russian hope are favorable. This will tie down Ukrainian forces in the defense of Kyiv, reducing the likelihood of a major counteroffensive in other regions. Image
8/ Aerospace Assessment. Russia’s recent claim of the employment of hypersonic missiles in Ukraine can be assessed to intensify political pressure on the Ukrainian government than to regain operational momentum, given that only two have been used.
9/ The Russians continue to struggle with employing many of its newer MLRS system that could have a dramatic tactical impact but have failed to so far due to poor planning and inadequate battlefield adaptability.
10/ Information War. Russia continues to fall behind in the information sphere. So long as images and messaging from occupied towns and cities can reach the Ukrainian people and international community, resistance will persist and grow.
11/ This makes demands, like the recent Russian MoD call for the surrender of Mariupol by 21 March, seem hollow & desperate. Russia has yet to produce a military situation in which surrender is preferable to continued resistance & is unlikely to do so.
12/ Battle Damage Assessment. Russian equipment and personnel losses continue to mount. In Kyiv the 331st Guards Airborne Regiment is assessed as being destroyed, it can no longer function as a cohesive unit, the 6th Tank Regiment is close to this too.
13/ Tomorrow’s update will focus on the Sumy-Chernihiv AO. I will soon be posting an in-depth look at the first month of the war, analyzing how the Ukrainian response to the Russian invasion resulted in a strategic victory for Ukraine & why the Russian military has so far failed. Image
14/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War from a variety of sources. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.
15/ Information regarding Ukrainian units are meant to be general, are based on Ukrainian General Staff statements and social media posts, official Ukrainian government press releases, and local news. It does not depict current unit movements.

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More from @JominiW

Jomini of the West Profile picture
Apr 7, 2023
1/ Ukraine TVD, 20 FEB-07 APR 23. The past 7 weeks saw a continuation of the Russian Winter Offensive as major pushes continued in Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka. Russia made important gains, Ukrainian defenses continue to hold. #UkraineRussiaWar #RussianArmy #UkraineFrontLines Image
2/ Current weather outlook for the Ukraine TVD. The mud season will continue to impede maneuver, especially in severely restricted terrain. The weather favors small-scale assault forces. Night operations will continue to be difficult.
3/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (note: I am still refining and updating this list, please bear with me as I do, thank you). ImageImageImageImage
Read 17 tweets
Jomini of the West Profile picture
Feb 22, 2023
1/ Ukraine TVD, 8-19 FEB 23. The past 2 weeks of February saw the Russian Winter Offensive intensify as major pushes continued in Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Vuhledar. Russian made few gains, Ukrainian defenses continue to hold. #UkraineRussiaWar #RussianArmy #UkraineFrontLines
2/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (note: I am still refining and updating this list, please bear with me as I do, thank you).
3/ Luhansk OD. Russian forces press their attack in the Kreminna area. Svatove has been reinforced by the 98th GABD, signaling a Russian intent to push toward Kupyansk soon. UKR forces will continue to defend in depth & transition to the offense when opportunities arise. #Luhansk
Read 14 tweets
Jomini of the West Profile picture
Feb 10, 2023
1/ Ukraine TVD, 1-7 FEB 23. The first week of February saw the Russian Winter Offensive move into full swing as major pushes were made in Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Vuhledar. The Russians made some gains but Ukrainian defenses held. #UkraineRussiaWar #RussianArmy #UkraineFrontLines Image
2/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (note: I am still refining and updating this list, please bear with me as I do, thank you). ImageImageImageImage
3/ Luhansk OD. Svatove remains a critical pivot of operations for both sides. Action over the past week did not see major changes to the line of contact north of Novovodyane. To the south the Russians launched a sustained offensive out of Kreminna towards Yampolivka. #Luhansk Image
Read 16 tweets
Jomini of the West Profile picture
Feb 1, 2023
1/ Ukraine TVD, 1-31 JAN 23. The first month of 2023 saw a determined effort by the VSRF to finally seize control of Bakhmut in central Donetsk, blunt ZSU advances in Luhansk, and expand territorial control in Zaporizhzhia. #UkraineRussiaWar #RussianArmy #UkraineFrontLines
2/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions.
3/ Luhansk OD. This OD remains an important disruption zone for Russian & Ukrainian forces. For the ZSU, the Luhansk OD still presents the best opportunity for victory in the Donbas. Expect continued Ukrainian efforts to liberate Svatove. #Luhansk
Read 13 tweets
Jomini of the West Profile picture
Sep 13, 2022
1/ UTVD Operational Update: ZSU Counter Offensive in Kharkiv, 10-12 Sep 22. The past 48 hrs continues to see ZSU forces exploiting their breakout from the T2110 Hwy line between Balakliya & Semenivka. The resulting advance has caused the defeat of the SVRF in Kharkiv. Image
2/ The successful liberation of Kupyansk by ZSU forces on 10 September provided the necessary pivot of operations to turn the weak left flank of OGORF-V and attack to seize the decisive geographic points of Velyki Burluk & Vovchansk on 11 September 2022.
3/ The defeats in Kharkiv & Izyum has forced the Russians to form a defensive line along the Oskil River. The ZSU has achieved a major political objective, the liberation of Kharkiv Oblast. pointhttps://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1569243133925367809?s=20&t=dtlIhdkgAeudyYrl2G2Qvw
Read 5 tweets
Jomini of the West Profile picture
Sep 10, 2022
1/ UTW – Operational Update: ZSU Counter Offensive in the Donbas, 04-10 Sep. The ZSU is engaged in what may likely become the most stunningly successful counteroffensive since the IDFs OPERATION GAZELLE during the 1973 Yom Kippur War. #ukrainecounteroffensive #UkraineWillWin Image
2/ The ZSU has successfully utilized the concept & practices of reflexive control to create maneuver space for a division-equivalent force to penetrate, exploit, and breakthrough the dangerously vulnerable left flank and rear of the Operational Group of Russian Forces Izyum.
3/ By taking the time to properly shape the conditions for success, the ZSU has in one-week undone months of VSRF operational progress. As of the timing of this assessment, ZSU forces have already pushed further north into northern Kharkiv Oblast toward Velykyi Burluk.
Read 6 tweets

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