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Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
@JominiW
Mar 21, 2022 • 15 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 25: Russian forces generally remain static and continue their transition to defensive operations in the Kyiv and Southern areas of operation. Only limited offensive action took place along the Donets River line & Mariupol. #UkraineRussianWar Image
2/ Humanitarian Impact. Refugees in various European countries exceeds 4.2 million, with 1.85 million IDPs, mostly in western Ukraine. Russian injustices against the Ukrainian populace multiple by the day; kidnappings and seizure of property continues.
3/ Today’s update will focus on the Kyiv area, providing a brief overview of the situation in the capital and surrounding countryside as Russian troops dig in. This is meant to set conditions for a more in-depth study of each AO as the war enters a protracted campaign.
4/ Weather assessment. In Kyiv, visibility & wind speed are favorable for VKS & UAF to execute aerospace operations. Temperatures generally will remain between 14/0 C, wind speed generally favors artillery fire, though there is an increased likelihood for overshooting targets.
5/ Kyiv AO assessments. There has been no change to the situation in Kyiv over the past 48 hours. Russian forces have begun the process to transition from offensive operations to a long-term defense of occupied territory in west, NW, and NE Kyiv. #Kyivunderattack Image
6/ It clear that short term political objectives are overriding long-term military success. Russian forces will focus on entrenching their positions while moving forward heavy artillery and rockets to increase and intensify the bombardment of Kyiv.
7/ This move is meant to place political pressure on the Ukrainian government to negotiate with the Kremlin on terms the Russian hope are favorable. This will tie down Ukrainian forces in the defense of Kyiv, reducing the likelihood of a major counteroffensive in other regions. Image
8/ Aerospace Assessment. Russia’s recent claim of the employment of hypersonic missiles in Ukraine can be assessed to intensify political pressure on the Ukrainian government than to regain operational momentum, given that only two have been used.
9/ The Russians continue to struggle with employing many of its newer MLRS system that could have a dramatic tactical impact but have failed to so far due to poor planning and inadequate battlefield adaptability.
10/ Information War. Russia continues to fall behind in the information sphere. So long as images and messaging from occupied towns and cities can reach the Ukrainian people and international community, resistance will persist and grow.
11/ This makes demands, like the recent Russian MoD call for the surrender of Mariupol by 21 March, seem hollow & desperate. Russia has yet to produce a military situation in which surrender is preferable to continued resistance & is unlikely to do so.
12/ Battle Damage Assessment. Russian equipment and personnel losses continue to mount. In Kyiv the 331st Guards Airborne Regiment is assessed as being destroyed, it can no longer function as a cohesive unit, the 6th Tank Regiment is close to this too.
13/ Tomorrow’s update will focus on the Sumy-Chernihiv AO. I will soon be posting an in-depth look at the first month of the war, analyzing how the Ukrainian response to the Russian invasion resulted in a strategic victory for Ukraine & why the Russian military has so far failed. Image
14/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War from a variety of sources. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.
15/ Information regarding Ukrainian units are meant to be general, are based on Ukrainian General Staff statements and social media posts, official Ukrainian government press releases, and local news. It does not depict current unit movements.

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More from @JominiW

Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Feb 1
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1073: Today's DTU focuses on actions in the Siversk Operational Direction during January 2025. #Siversk #Donbas #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Russia #Ukraine #SlavaUkraini Image
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
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3/ Operational Overview: The Siversk OD is not only militarily sensitive for Russia and Ukraine but also politically, especially for Russia. Since the fall of Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, and Popasna, Siversk has been a key operational hub. It occupies a crucial position within the OSUV Khortytsia area of responsibility. It acts as a coordination center between OTU Lyman and OTU Luhansk to defend the Slovyansk/Kramatorsk urban conglomerate, a critical strategic point in the Donbas SD. Additionally, it serves as the entry point into northern Donetsk Oblast.

Little has changed in the Siversk OD for almost two and a half years. It is a principal source of Russian military frustration, exemplifying the inadequacies of the Russian Armed Forces in achieving a decisive victory over Ukraine and the Ukrainian ability to hold their territory and outfight the Russians.Image
Read 9 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Jan 28
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1069: Today's DTU focuses on actions in the Southern Donetsk Front from January 22-27, which includes the Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka Operational Directions. #Pokrovsk #VelykaNovosilka #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Russia Image
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
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3/ Operational Overview: Major Viktor Tregubov, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Grouping of Forces (OSUV) Khortytsia, stated that the Russians are trying to bypass Pokrovsk from the western side, looking for vulnerabilities in the Ukrainian defenses to capture the city. Tregubov also suggested that the Russians would not try to reach the Dnipropetrovsk region but concentrate on capturing Pokrovsk city. The major stated that the Russians maintain their daily average of 50-60 combat actions along this sector of the front.Image
Read 10 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Jan 26
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1067: Today's DTU focuses on actions in the Kupyansk Operational Direction from January 5-25, 2025, with some highlights of events in other parts of the TVD. #Kupyansk #Torestsk #VelykaNovosilka #Kursk #Pokrovsk #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #RussiaImage
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
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3/ Operational Overview: The 1st Guards Tank Army continues its well-coordinated multi-division offensive along a line of operations at the junction of the OTU Kupyansk and OTU Staroblisk areas of responsibility. The assault by the 2d Guard Motorized Rifle Division into northern Kupyansk and Dvorichna during late 2024 and early 2025 has revealed vulnerabilities in Ukrainian defenses in this segment of the front to infiltration. The expanding Dvorichna Bridgehead presents a substantial challenge for ZSU forces. Should the Russians succeed in capturing Dvorichna and extend their lines south towards Radkivka and Holubivka, the 2d Guard Motorized Rifle Division would establish a new avenue of advance to possibly encircle Kupyansk from the north.Image
Read 12 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Jan 25
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1066: Today's DTU focuses on actions in the Toretsk Area of Operations from January 05-24, 2025, with some highlights of events in Velya Novosilka and in Kursk. #Torestsk #VelykaNovosilka #Kursk #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #RussiaImage
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
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3/ Operational Overview: OSV Yug successfully and swiftly integrated reserve forces into the front-line units of the 41st Guards Combined Arms Army by the end of December 2024. In early January 2025, Russian forces in central Toretsk initiated a series of well-coordinated platoon-sized assaults, taking advantage of the limited visibility caused by ongoing adverse weather conditions, to concentrate assault teams along key routes of advance. This tactical approach diminished the effectiveness of Ukrainian FPV targeting while enhancing Russian maneuver superiority.

As a result, Ukrainian defenses in central and southern Toretsk rapidly deteriorated, with approximately 70% of the city coming under Russian control by mid-January. ZSU forces established a final defensive line stretching from the forested region west of Dachne to the Toretska mine. Further south, Ukrainian troops maintained control over the Tsentralna Mine and exerted FPV and fire control over the western areas of the ZabalkaMicro-District, accounting for around 30% of Toretsk's territory still under Ukrainian control.Image
Read 10 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Jan 24
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1065: Today's DTU focuses on actions in the Chasiv Yar Operational Direction from January 05-23, 2025, with some highlights of events in Toretsk and a quick update on developments in Pokrovsk and Velya Novosilka. #ChasivYar #Torestsk #VelykaNovosilka #Pokrovsk #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #RussiaImage
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
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3/ Operational Overview: Despite recent achievements, the Chasiv Yar Operational Direction has produced minimal progress for the SVRF since the capture of Bakhmut. While under significant pressure, OTU Luhansk(?) still effectively prevents OSV Yug from advancing towards Kostyantynivka, which poses a risk to the defense of OSUV Khortytsia in central Donetsk Oblast. The Siverskyi-Donets Canal continues to act as a significant barrier hindering Russian movements, potentially enhanced by ongoing construction of field fortifications in successive lines to the west of the canal and north of Toretsk. However, since late December 2024, the 98th Guards Airborne Division has achieved notable progress along critical sections of the Siverskyi-Donets Canal and within Chasiv Yar.Image
Read 9 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Jan 23
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1064: Today's DTU focuses on actions in the Velyka Novosilka Operational Direction from January 05-22, 2025. #VelykaNovosilka #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Andriivka #Vremivka Image
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
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3/ Operational Overview: The Velyka Novosilka Operational Direction situation continues deteriorating for OSUV Tavriva. Efforts by OTU Krasnohorivka throughout late December 2024 and early January 2025 failed to hold the defensive line in Kurakhove and along the Sukhi Yaly River Valley. The 29th Guards Combined Arms Army has secured the banks of the Sukhi Yaly River from Uspenivka to the southern approaches of Ulakly.

With the 51st Guards Combined Arms Army seizing control of most of the T05-15 Road and pressuring Ukrainian defenses to the north, there is a real threat to OTU Krasnohorivka ability to break contact and execute an orderly delayed withdrawal along the H-15 Highway and reestablishing a coherent defense within the Andriivka-Oleksiivka fortified conglomerate.Image
Read 7 tweets

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