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Beau of The Fifth Column Profile picture
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Mar 21 • 3 tweets • 1 min read
Rumor mill says Ukrainian stay behind team in Kherson is targeting those who take positions with the Russian occupation government.
Context:
Well....

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More from @BeauTFC

Beau of The Fifth Column Profile picture
Mar 20
Inbox: "You keep saying nobody predicted the Ukrainians doing this well. I watched you say they could do it if they caught them during the advance."

I don't say, but I assumed their conventional forces would be gone, and they'd be doing it unconventionally.

(Thread)
I didn't feel the need to explicitly say this because nobody had the conventional forces being combat effective a week in, much less three weeks.

Looking back at the videos, I seem much more accurate than I really was.
I'm not aware of a single analyst who called Ukraine's conventional forces running and gunning this long. Not one.
Read 5 tweets
Beau of The Fifth Column Profile picture
Mar 8
Ugh... because it's apparently going to become a thing.

The US could give away almost half its aircraft and still be the leading airpower. The aid to Europe is not a significant decrease.
The world's largest air force: the US Air Force
The world's second largest air force: the US Navy.
Here are the actual numbers.
Read 4 tweets
Beau of The Fifth Column Profile picture
Mar 7
This is brutal.

Lyrics and subtitles start at 30 seconds.
If none of this made sense, just understand Bart is everybody with even a basic understanding of airborne ops after each drop by the Russians. Homer is Russian leadership.
Note: the translations are less than accurate.
Read 4 tweets
Beau of The Fifth Column Profile picture
Mar 6
Just watched a 30-min press conference given by captured Russian soldiers. If they were coached, it's the best coaching I've ever seen.

Not sharing the video, because A) I haven't found a translated one yet (looking now) and B) if this isn't voluntary, it's a war crime.
Overall, it's basically confirming a lot of what we suspected.
It's on reddit because of course it is.
Read 5 tweets
Beau of The Fifth Column Profile picture
Feb 25
Breaking: Some documents at Trump's golf club were reportedly SCI (Sensitive compartmentalized information).

If this was you or I, we'd be in cuffs.
Compartments*
Ugh
Read 4 tweets
Beau of The Fifth Column Profile picture
Feb 25
Inbox: "What do you think of [list of youtubers, pundits, analysts who have made glaring errors]? They've all seriously [graphic term for messing up]. Shouldn't they just stop covering it?"

Na, it's a dynamic situation. Everybody will make a huge mistake at some point.
It's also worth noting that some people are providing an analysis from the point of view of swaying popular opinion to support the side they think is the least bad option. Their "wrong" analysis is just being optimistic.
Some are actively generating propaganda for their side. Some are just new.

I've seen an incredibly experienced analyst make an eyebrow raising statement that was just an error.
Read 5 tweets

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