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Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
@PhillipsPOBrien
Mar 21, 2022 • 26 tweets • 7 min read • Read on X
These stories have been coming in all morning. Would be surprising if Ukraine had the heavy forces available there to attack the Russian army to the northeast of Kyiv. But if they continue pressing, the Ukrainians could wreak havoc on Russian communications and supply
Ukrainian Army is now publicly claiming that they have liberated Makariv, which is the southerly of the two town in that map. So there seems to be something happening in this area.
Two big ifs. IF Kyiv is still the number 1 priority for the Russians and IF the below story is true, then this is by far the most important military development on the ground during the last few days. That inert Russian force to the northeast of Kyiv could be in big trouble
Here are the stories from the last few days saying that surrounding and attacking Kyiv remained the highest Russian priority.
You can see the vulnerability of Russian supply lines to the northeast and northwest. Image
Interesting update from US DoD. Ukrainians ‘able and willing’ to start taking back territory. Fits in with above narrative, and so far the DoD briefings have been very cautious on this sort of thing.
Sounds like a pretty realistic update.
A lot of different guesses happening. Who knows. However we can say that if the Russian supply lines heading to the northwest of Kyiv are cut, that large Russian force would have to move hell and earth to reopen them or it’s doomed.
First reported this morning (see earlier in thread) but now confirmed. Pretty sure the Ukrainians see this as a battle worth committing to. The next few days will reveal a lot.
Now this is interesting, shows that there was a pretty big battle in Makariv last recently, engagements throughout the town. With Ukrainian statements that they have taken the town this is significant. The two armies battled for a strategic town, and Ukraine won
And would make sense. What the Ukrainians could be doing is road by road, any way into the large pocket of Russian troops around Hostomel. Assume the plan is soon to limit the Russians to only the one major road system heading due north. Markariv is red marked Image
If the Ukrainians take Borodianka as well (and stories this morning implied that they mignt) then the Russians only have the one road system to use.
First claim I’ve seen of total encirclement of Russian forces northwest of Kyiv. Can anyone confirm? If true easily the most important military development in the war.
Probably doesn’t need to be said, but if true the Russians will have to move heaven and earth to break the encirclement and reestablish supply. Can’t see supplying such a large force by air. And who knows what they can fly in and out of Hostomel anyway.
More signs of a push from the south from the Ukrainians. Has there been any news of what’s happening to the north?
Update on this, U.K. MOD saying encirclement is a possible Ukrainian objective
Well, Ukrainians pushing hard at the bottom of the northwest Russian pocket. If the Russians are having the logistics problems that seem possible, their lines can only hold out so long.
We should really start paying attention to the map as the more the Ukrainians push the Russians back from Kyiv, the more they change the political dynamic of the war. Why? Because they severely limit the ability of the Russians to damage Kyiv by artillery.
Russian units are oversupplied by artillery and rockets in comparison to NATO units, and they have a longer range in many instance. However to use their full force they need to be within 20-25 kilometres of their target. Image
After 40 kilometres they have no ability to hit anything, and at that point, the Russians would have to rely on air supplied munitions (missiles, bombs) to do damage. For the full artillery report see here. finabel.org/long-live-the-…
So the Russians being pushed back will start seriously degrading the ability of their artillery to hit Kyiv, allowing the Ukrainian capital to rest and restore. It deprives the Russians of one of their most common weapons in this war--terror.
Yes, they can still lob missiles and bombs, but that is very different than a sustained, heavy artillery bombardment. It also means that Russia has to deplete their declining stores of cruise missiles or expose more valuable aircraft.
So the Ukrainians pushing the Russians away from Kyiv weakens Russian war options in a number of important ways.

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
May 5
The @CSIS Interpret China resource has assembled a number of very interesting sources on how the Chinese state is thinking about and reacting to the Russo-Ukraine War. It is a really helpful one-stop shop that anyone interested in the subject should examine.interpret.csis.org
One report. by a leading Chinese scholar, talks about how Russia is trying to recalibrate its global relationships, and how the Chinese-Russian alliance, while strong, is no longer the "limitless" partnerships that was proclaimed before the invasion. interpret.csis.org/translations/t…
Another really interesting Chinese analysis looks at 2024, and argues that after the US election, there might be a push for a peace deal. Also tries to think about the future development of warfare, and how China can adjust to a battlefield full of masses of cheap UAVs interpret.csis.org/translations/a…
Read 5 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
May 4
And the battle lines have (at least temporarily) stabilized after all the doom and gloom of the last few weeks. No great Russian breakthroughs and exploitations, some small, incremental advances at very high cost. With Ukraine getting more ammunition, Russian losses might even rise.
UK Intelligence estimates 465000 Russian casualties so far--an staggering figure. The Russians are generating soldiers, but losing them at an astounding clip. The disregard of the Russian leadership for their own people is one reason Ukraine must win.
Actually, UK intelligence estimates OVER 465,000 Russian casualties--fighting just Ukraine. This is one of the most futile military campaigns in modern history.
Read 5 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Apr 16
Hi All, just sent out this piece on the brutally simple lesson that we have seen in the last few days, one that Europe must learn from and prepare for immediately if the continent is not to be the plaything of nuclear powers. Image
Non-nuclear Ukraine has been made to suffer at the hands of a nuclear power. Let’s hope it doesn’t happen to the continent as a whole.
People talking about relying on the U.K. and France’s nuclear forces don’t get it. That will be an inevitable short term reality, but it’s not a long term plan. Both are national and both governments could be unreliable in the future. What happens if the National Front takes power in France? Nigel Farage and Dominic Cummings have been likewise Russian sympathisers in the U.K.
Read 6 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 8
The Polish government now saying that they can conceive of NATO forces in Ukraine. War is a dynamic process and can lead to dramatic changes--its amazing that so many people cannot see that such a development is becoming more and more possible.
Also important to see @sikorskiradek challenge Russian reflexive control. This is about European states saying to Russia that we dont accept the security paradigm you are trying to impose. Make Russia worry more. This is exactly what I said 4 days ago.
In the end, breaking the chains that Russia has wrapped around the security discussion of this war might be the key step to helping Ukraine win it.
Read 5 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Feb 29
Just sent out an update on the chance of European intervention for Ukraine, motivated by the deliberate statements of @EmmanuelMacron People who discount European intervention for Ukraine do not understand war. The longer they go on, the bloodier they become... Image
the more state's contemplate actions that previously they never thought possible. As Russia slaughters hundreds of thousands and the war drags on, it is increasing the chances of intervention. Only a fool would deny that--and Macron is no fool Image
An example of what is being contemplated. The Baltics, for one, have to take any abandonment of Ukraine by the USA as a huge threat to themselves.
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Feb 11
Trump’s admission yesterday that he would be happy to encourage Putin to attack Europe should and all hopes that somehow the Republican Party is salvageable. As such I wrote a piece that the Dems should take 2 bold steps now to reach out to sane Repubs. substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_…
Image
Like FDR in 1940, in the Face of isolationists who were sympathetic to Hitler, the Dems should name two internationalist Republicans to the Cabinet. Second, they need to consider a unity ticket in 2024. Think Michelle Obama and Adam Kinzinger.
In case you missed it, here is an article about what Trump said. cnn.com/2024/02/10/pol…
Read 7 tweets

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