Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

These stories have been coming in all morning. Would be surprising if Ukraine had the heavy forces available there to attack the Russian army to the northeast of Kyiv. But if they continue pressing, the Ukrainians could wreak havoc on Russian communications and supply

https://twitter.com/andersostlund/status/1505887385850159112

Ukrainian Army is now publicly claiming that they have liberated Makariv, which is the southerly of the two town in that map. So there seems to be something happening in this area.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1506110975711363074?s=20&t=FoCLu6ygBWr7UJwlpPQXEA

Two big ifs. IF Kyiv is still the number 1 priority for the Russians and IF the below story is true, then this is by far the most important military development on the ground during the last few days. That inert Russian force to the northeast of Kyiv could be in big trouble

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1506256037443219461

Here are the stories from the last few days saying that surrounding and attacking Kyiv remained the highest Russian priority.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1505896275522244611

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/status/1506283008407523342

You can see the vulnerability of Russian supply lines to the northeast and northwest.

Interesting update from US DoD. Ukrainians ‘able and willing’ to start taking back territory. Fits in with above narrative, and so far the DoD briefings have been very cautious on this sort of thing.

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1506288701076291589

Sounds like a pretty realistic update.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1506339924231995394?s=20&t=2AVZHoQUfJqPeiYBz6GzCg

A lot of different guesses happening. Who knows. However we can say that if the Russian supply lines heading to the northwest of Kyiv are cut, that large Russian force would have to move hell and earth to reopen them or it’s doomed.

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1506358344973488133

First reported this morning (see earlier in thread) but now confirmed. Pretty sure the Ukrainians see this as a battle worth committing to. The next few days will reveal a lot.

https://twitter.com/jake_hanrahan/status/1506353838319579137

Now this is interesting, shows that there was a pretty big battle in Makariv last recently, engagements throughout the town. With Ukrainian statements that they have taken the town this is significant. The two armies battled for a strategic town, and Ukraine won

https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1506360515282489359

And would make sense. What the Ukrainians could be doing is road by road, any way into the large pocket of Russian troops around Hostomel. Assume the plan is soon to limit the Russians to only the one major road system heading due north. Markariv is red marked

If the Ukrainians take Borodianka as well (and stories this morning implied that they mignt) then the Russians only have the one road system to use.

First claim I’ve seen of total encirclement of Russian forces northwest of Kyiv. Can anyone confirm? If true easily the most important military development in the war.

https://twitter.com/lapatina_/status/1506602728860094465

Probably doesn’t need to be said, but if true the Russians will have to move heaven and earth to break the encirclement and reestablish supply. Can’t see supplying such a large force by air. And who knows what they can fly in and out of Hostomel anyway.

https://twitter.com/jenniestevenson/status/1506609975518539786

https://twitter.com/iaponomarenko/status/1506594877999656963

More signs of a push from the south from the Ukrainians. Has there been any news of what’s happening to the north?

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1506632128557113353

Update on this, U.K. MOD saying encirclement is a possible Ukrainian objective

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1506770781140885512

Well, Ukrainians pushing hard at the bottom of the northwest Russian pocket. If the Russians are having the logistics problems that seem possible, their lines can only hold out so long.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1506999614783823875?s=20&t=Vm4EPoxz-FvxI4mDMjxEYg

We should really start paying attention to the map as the more the Ukrainians push the Russians back from Kyiv, the more they change the political dynamic of the war. Why? Because they severely limit the ability of the Russians to damage Kyiv by artillery.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1507068901649178629?s=20&t=mIGusDcBGiv_zIzlfAeZiQ

Russian units are oversupplied by artillery and rockets in comparison to NATO units, and they have a longer range in many instance. However to use their full force they need to be within 20-25 kilometres of their target.

After 40 kilometres they have no ability to hit anything, and at that point, the Russians would have to rely on air supplied munitions (missiles, bombs) to do damage. For the full artillery report see here. finabel.org/long-live-the-…

So the Russians being pushed back will start seriously degrading the ability of their artillery to hit Kyiv, allowing the Ukrainian capital to rest and restore. It deprives the Russians of one of their most common weapons in this war--terror.

Yes, they can still lob missiles and bombs, but that is very different than a sustained, heavy artillery bombardment. It also means that Russia has to deplete their declining stores of cruise missiles or expose more valuable aircraft.

So the Ukrainians pushing the Russians away from Kyiv weakens Russian war options in a number of important ways.