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Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
@PhillipsPOBrien
Mar 21, 2022 • 26 tweets • 7 min read • Read on X
These stories have been coming in all morning. Would be surprising if Ukraine had the heavy forces available there to attack the Russian army to the northeast of Kyiv. But if they continue pressing, the Ukrainians could wreak havoc on Russian communications and supply
Ukrainian Army is now publicly claiming that they have liberated Makariv, which is the southerly of the two town in that map. So there seems to be something happening in this area.
Two big ifs. IF Kyiv is still the number 1 priority for the Russians and IF the below story is true, then this is by far the most important military development on the ground during the last few days. That inert Russian force to the northeast of Kyiv could be in big trouble
Here are the stories from the last few days saying that surrounding and attacking Kyiv remained the highest Russian priority.
You can see the vulnerability of Russian supply lines to the northeast and northwest. Image
Interesting update from US DoD. Ukrainians ‘able and willing’ to start taking back territory. Fits in with above narrative, and so far the DoD briefings have been very cautious on this sort of thing.
Sounds like a pretty realistic update.
A lot of different guesses happening. Who knows. However we can say that if the Russian supply lines heading to the northwest of Kyiv are cut, that large Russian force would have to move hell and earth to reopen them or it’s doomed.
First reported this morning (see earlier in thread) but now confirmed. Pretty sure the Ukrainians see this as a battle worth committing to. The next few days will reveal a lot.
Now this is interesting, shows that there was a pretty big battle in Makariv last recently, engagements throughout the town. With Ukrainian statements that they have taken the town this is significant. The two armies battled for a strategic town, and Ukraine won
And would make sense. What the Ukrainians could be doing is road by road, any way into the large pocket of Russian troops around Hostomel. Assume the plan is soon to limit the Russians to only the one major road system heading due north. Markariv is red marked Image
If the Ukrainians take Borodianka as well (and stories this morning implied that they mignt) then the Russians only have the one road system to use.
First claim I’ve seen of total encirclement of Russian forces northwest of Kyiv. Can anyone confirm? If true easily the most important military development in the war.
Probably doesn’t need to be said, but if true the Russians will have to move heaven and earth to break the encirclement and reestablish supply. Can’t see supplying such a large force by air. And who knows what they can fly in and out of Hostomel anyway.
More signs of a push from the south from the Ukrainians. Has there been any news of what’s happening to the north?
Update on this, U.K. MOD saying encirclement is a possible Ukrainian objective
Well, Ukrainians pushing hard at the bottom of the northwest Russian pocket. If the Russians are having the logistics problems that seem possible, their lines can only hold out so long.
We should really start paying attention to the map as the more the Ukrainians push the Russians back from Kyiv, the more they change the political dynamic of the war. Why? Because they severely limit the ability of the Russians to damage Kyiv by artillery.
Russian units are oversupplied by artillery and rockets in comparison to NATO units, and they have a longer range in many instance. However to use their full force they need to be within 20-25 kilometres of their target. Image
After 40 kilometres they have no ability to hit anything, and at that point, the Russians would have to rely on air supplied munitions (missiles, bombs) to do damage. For the full artillery report see here. finabel.org/long-live-the-…
So the Russians being pushed back will start seriously degrading the ability of their artillery to hit Kyiv, allowing the Ukrainian capital to rest and restore. It deprives the Russians of one of their most common weapons in this war--terror.
Yes, they can still lob missiles and bombs, but that is very different than a sustained, heavy artillery bombardment. It also means that Russia has to deplete their declining stores of cruise missiles or expose more valuable aircraft.
So the Ukrainians pushing the Russians away from Kyiv weakens Russian war options in a number of important ways.

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
May 27
Trump is admitting two things here. The first is that he has been serving Russian interests by protecting Putin on numerous occasions. The second is that Trump is feeling pressure to be harder on Russia, which he really doesn’t want to do.
Response: keep up the pressure! Image
We now live in an era in which the President of the USA is publicly admitting to acting exactly as an agent of influence of Russia would be expected to act.
Republicans, do you feel proud to be supporting a President who openly admits to strongly and regularly defending the actions of a dictatorial war criminal who has invaded a democracy. Is this what you want the party to be?
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
May 25
Hi all, just sent out my free weekend update. This was the week where it was said many things changed, but actually relatively little did. Trump basically gave up pretending he was trying to negotiate in good faith and said if Putin doesn’t want a deal, that’s fine by him. Image
And at the same time, Trump is encouraging Putin not to have a deal as he continues to restrict new aid to Ukraine. Can we stop pretending that Trump cares about Ukrainian dead? He’s a narcissistic sociopath. This is just a continuation of his older policy in a new way.
I wrote about this in the update. The USA through Trump is now actively helping Russia kill Ukrainians by starving Ukraine of anti air facilities. The US is working with Russia. washingtonpost.com/world/2025/05/…
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Apr 23
OK, sent out this free piece on the details of the Trump "final" plan for Ukraine that has been seen by Axios. The 5 points have basically been dictated by Putin. They set up a process which would allow Russia to expand into all of its neighbors. Image
No one should be shocked by this. Its what Trump has been saying for years. The shocking thing is that people fooled themselves that we would not reach this point. The future of freedom and democracy in Europe is entirely in Europe's hands. I hope Europe does not blow it.
Btw, Putin saying right after this that he is now willing to freeze the war along the present front line and negotiate is almost certainly coordinated action with Trump to try and force this terrible deal down Ukraine’s and Europe’s throats
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Apr 4
Trump is out of his depth in this trade war. He clearly didnt expect this Chinese reaction--and is accusing them of panicking. Ahhh--Projection.... Image
The tragedy for the USA (self-inflicted) is that Trump seems to be going out of his way to strengthen China's international position. President Xi must be stunned as his good luck to be faced by such a fool--as I wrote in this piece today.
More Trump panic (a real-time meltdown is happening). Having put in place all the conditions for a major recession--he's now begging the Fed to cut interest rates and throw him a lifeline. Maybe he should ask the Chinese to stop panicking and help. Image
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 25
Pretty sure what we have seen today is Trump and Putin acting as allies to betray Ukraine and isolate Europe. What seems to have happened is this.
1) The US got Ukraine to agree a Black Sea ceasefire on the idea that if Rus broke it, the US would put more sanctions on Rus.
2) Trump then turn around and agreed sanctions relief with Russia as part of the Black Sea Ceasefire--which Ukraine would not have known (I imagine)

3) Ukraine is now in a box. If it rejects the US deal with Russia, the US can say Ukraine is the bad guy and end all sanctions.
4) If Ukraine keeps to the deal--Russia gets important relief and a significant advantage it did not have.

5) Only European states can help Ukraine now--but they need to be active and fast.
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 7
I do not think people realize how comprehensive the Trump Administration is being in its attempts to help Putin kill Ukrainians. I have it on an excellent source that Ukrainian UAV operations are 15% less effective because of the US intel cut off.
This should be a chilling warning for the rest of Europe. If the US can help Putin kill Ukrainians today, the US can help Putin kill lots of other Europeans tomorrow.
And the US is depriving the Ukrainians not only of weapons, but also medical supplies. The US is now making it more likely that wounded Ukrainians die.
Read 5 tweets

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