Thread by @noclador

A few days ago russia beseeched China to supply it with weapons, ammunition, food and war materiel.

Even if China agrees - it would take a month or more to deliver these supplies and they won't change the war's outcome.

Let me explain:

1/9

It is 5,500 km from the railway crossing at Manzhouli in China to belgorod, where russia operates its main railway hub for the invasion of Ukraine.

russian trains will take a week to cover this distance, but it will take China even longer to get materiel to Manzhouli.

2/9

China's People's Liberation Army has almost no russian equipment in service. China's most modern equipment is all made in China and russia can't use it.

China could give russia older stuff and ammunition, like i.e. BM-21 Grad copies and/or the rockets for it.

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If China decides to supply more complex systems to russia (tanks, IFVs, etc.), then China will have to take them out of its own units, remove classified Chinese tech (i.e. secure comms, targeting systems, etc.), load it onto trains and bring those trains to Manzhouli.

4/9

It will take the first trains 7-10 days to arrive at Manzhouli, where the trains have to be unloaded and then reloaded on russian trains as the Chinese railways uses a 1,435 mm gauge, while russia uses a 1,524 mm gauge.

5/9

After about 10+ days the first trains might cross into russia.

Then it's 7-8 days to Belgorod. Another 1-2 days to unload the trains and load the supplies on trucks.

Then those trucks have to enter Ukraine... and we all know what happens to russian supply trucks in Ukraine.
6/9

So even if China supplies ammo, food, and materiel it won't fix russia's logistic problems, as russian logistics suffer from a lack of trucks, drivers, spares, maintenance, and an astounding lack of convoy security.

And there is nothing China or russia can do to fix that.

7/9

And if China supplies more complex systems, then russia will have to re-install the tech China removed, and russia will have to give its troops at least a few days to acclimatize themselves with the new systems (where everything will be labeled in Mandarin).

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And if China should fly in materiel: a transport plane can fly in 0.25% of what a train can transport.

In short: even if China should supply russia with materiel, it will be too little, it will be too late, and it won't change the fact that russia is losing the war.

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