Thread by @paulwaugh

The row over @BorisJohnson's remarks about Ukraine and Brexit lays bare just how keen he is to win back lost Leave voters.

'No regrets' one No.10 source tells me.

Tonight's #WaughOnPolitics is in your inbox
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Here's why the PM wants to go back to talking about Brexit:
📉the Tory Leave vote has DROPPED by 21% since 2019
📈Labour's Leave vote has gone UP by 10%.

(Figures via @UKandEU and Prof John Curtice)

Also, 'Remain' and 'Leave' identities are still amazingly strong nearly SIX years on.
Among referendum voters, the figures are even more stark: 69% held a Brexit identity at the end of 2021.

People identify more strongly as 'Remain'/'Leave' than they do as Lab/Tory voters

There's another factor which may help Johnson. As this @SavantaComRes /Lord Hayward chart today shows, @BorisJohnson personal ratings are much more volatile than his 'best PM' ratings.

More relevant stats:
60% of Leavers and 67% of Remainers said that their identity was very or extremely important to
them.
Only 34% of Conservatives, and 41% of Labour identifiers, think their party identity is very or extremely important to them
ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…

One voter in East End of London recently told a Tory canvasser: “Boris is a liar, a cheat and a serial c***. But I’m still going to vote for him."

Others may not be so sanguine if #Partygate reignites with police fines before the local elxns

inews.co.uk/opinion/compar…