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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Mar 21, 2022 • 11 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
This is a truck logistics history🧵that will point back to my "Russian truck fleet is junk in 6-to-8 weeks from operational attrition" startment.

These KamAZ trucks are the newest generation available to Russia.
kamazexport.com
1/
This is a ZIL-131HV truck.

Production of all versions of the ZIL military truck at the Moscow plant ended in 1990.

It is 2022. You are seeing a lot of these in Ukraine.👇
2/
 autoweekvirtualgreencarshow.com/the-best-sovie…
You see a couple of dead ZIL trucks with this dead Russian Object 640 Black Eagle tank prototype in these Ukrainian battle damage assessment photos.
3/
 reddit.com/r/TankPorn/com…
A 32-to-40 year old, 150 HP engined, Zil truck in a Russian military with no tradition of NCO preventive maintenance is a marginal "bookkeeping" asset at best.

4/
Every war or military conflict since trucks were invented has seen far more trucks go down to operational attrition than combat.

It is easy, one internet search away, real life facts like this that tell me those screaming for "Data" are trolls playing "denial games" w/history
5/
All a good preventive maintenance program with lots of spare parts can do in combat is slow this process down.

The WW2 Red Ball Express ended when the truck fleet fell apart.
6/
 historynet.com/red-ball-expre…
The 90 hp Studebaker, Dodge & Chevy trucks of the Red Ball Express had every spare part 1940's Detroit could make over 2-years sitting for them in England.

7/
The 150hp Zil & 300 hp KamAz Trucks in Ukraine simply don't.

The Zil's are just as overloaded as the Kamaz trucks with 1/2 the horsepower trying to keep up on bad Ukrainian roads.

They are redlined/overheated "Zombie Trucks driving."
8/
There is one other thing the Red Ball Express had that Russian trucks in ukraine do not...a supply of gravel to repair roads.

US Army Corps of Engineers dug gravel pits right off the Normandy beaches to provide the trucks of what became Red Ball Express road repair gravel
9/
... before it was needed.

It is the small details that a logistical staff officer, with a stubby pencil and ledger paper spent hours grinding out in the UK, that made the Red Ball Express' success happen.

And what the trucks of the Russian Army in Ukraine lack today.

10/end
Statement, not startment, darn it!!!

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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 2
Just...no. Russia HAS BEEN "Battle of the Cities" from the very beginning...targeting hospitals as a means of destroying ethnic minorities.

This has been Russian policy for DECADES.

Ukraine retaliating for atrocity is _RECIPROCITY_ per the Laws of War, not degeneracy.
1/2
I asked @grok to document this Russian policy of atrocity at the link, excerpt:

"February 24, 2022–present (Full-scale Russian invasion): The scale escalated dramatically. As of May 2026, the WHO had verified more than 3,000 attacks on healthcare via its Surveillance System for Attacks on Health Care (SSA). A coalition of organizations (including PHR, eyeWitness, Truth Hounds, etc.) documented ~3,095 attacks, with 1,632 damaging or destroying hospitals and clinics"

x.com/i/grok?convers…
2/
I'm afraid @cdrsalamander has gotten the moral vectors in the Russo-Ukrainian war wrong.

What is degenerate here isn't RECIPROCITY.

Degeneracy here is defined as using Woke NGO Elite definitions of morality, AKA claiming AFU RECIPROCITY per the laws of war as a war crime.
3/3 Image
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 30
When I've talked about the legacy of Soviet industrial gigantism (one big factory) making Putin era Russia far more vulnerable to a drone strategic bombing campaign.

This is a very good example. ⬇️

Strategic Drone Airpower🧵
1/3
I've talked about this vulnerability in a couple of previous threads. Here is a shorter one:



Putin's decades long "Russian exceptionalism" propaganda campaign, that says WW2 was won on the Eastern Front, has made Russians incapable of seeing this.

2/3
If strategic airpower was irrelevant then. So is damage from it now. 🤦‍♂️

Here is the larger in-depth thread detailing the vulnerabilities of ex-Soviet "One-Big Factory" infrastructure (AKA gigantism) Ukraine is exploiting.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 28
There is so much to object to here that I'm going to restate some basic design observations on the FP-5 to clarify how the Russian reflexive control data fed AI slop that is polluting public discussions of the FP-5.

FP-5 🧵
1/
1. The FP-5 Flamingo is about four times the launch weight of a BGM-109 Tomahawk (i.e. ~13,200 lb), and 2-3 times the range (i.e. ~1,620 nmi) while carrying twice the warhead mass (i.e. ~2,000 lb).

2/ Image
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2. The FP-5 design concept is modelled on the USAF MGM-13 Mace GLCM as Fire Point told Ukrainian military analysts - but designed with modern technology to be extremely cheap to make (claimed 1/6 the cost of a Tomahawk - likely not counting the engine cost).

3/ Image
Read 17 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 23
It's time to revisit how 992 Ukrainian drones and 10 small cruise missiles were used to saturate Russia's Moscow air defenses.

There was a lot of technology, technique & tactics involved.

Drone War 🧵
1/
The first thing that needs to be pointed out is that in 2026 Ukraine has not only replicated, but likely exceeded, the 2018 capabilities of the USAF's Stand-off Munitions Activity Center (SMAC) at at Barksdale AFB.

I've mentioned this before ⬇️
2/
In 2018 a Dallas chapter of the Association of Old Crows gave an award to SMAC & we got an open source brief of what they did to earn the award.

These guys do the evasive routing for integrated cross-service standoff munition attack profiles.

3/
Read 14 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 19
The BLUF of every missile based integrated air defense is the number of missiles and launcher reload times are known.

Winning a saturation attack against one is simple arithmetic, total all the defending missiles, then +10 more drones above that number.
1/2
Electronic warfare is always a "saving throw" with an expiration date for the defense.

Plus no one in the world, since 1989, has invested in enough mobile guns for robust AA-combined arms to screw up the simple arithmetic of a saturation drone/missile attacks.

2/
Russia burned out Ukraine's considerable stocks of 5V55 SAMs (~3,300 rounds), 9M83 SAMs (~1,000) and 9M38 SAMs (~800) by repeat saturation attacks.

Ukraine returns the favor. This is not that difficult to grasp.

Saturation attacks were central to legacy Soviet doctrine.
3/
Read 5 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 18
We have just seen over Moscow today - with Ukrainian drones - the Russo-Ukrainian War's version of the RAF’s first 1,000-bomber raid of World War II, codenamed Operation Millennium, which took place on the night of May 30–31, 1942.

1/3 Image
Operation Millennium, marked the first tactical deployment of the RAF "bomber stream".

That is, the tactic of flying a dense, tightly timed formation along a narrow corridor to overwhelm German radar networks and anti-aircraft defenses of the Kammhuber line.
2/3 Image
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When I look at the design of the air defense rings around Moscow.🧐⬇️

I can't help but think Ukraine used a 2026 "Drone Stream' to saturate one sector of these ring defenses like the RAF did to the Kammhuber line.

3/3
Read 4 tweets

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