Thread by @thesheetztweetz

#SATShow next generation launchers panel, with:

United Launch Alliance CEO Tory Bruno
Rocket Lab SVP Lars Hoffman $RKLB
Arianespace CEO Stéphane Israël
Blue Origin SVP Jarrett Jones
SpaceX VP Tom Ochinero

@ulalaunch @torybruno @RocketLab @arianespaceceo @Arianespace @blueorigin @SpaceX Jones: "The last 12 months for Blue Origin have been absolutely amazing. We've made a lot of significant milestones," between first suborbital human spaceflights to opening up multiple new facilities including in Denver, Phoenix, and Reston.

@ulalaunch @torybruno @RocketLab @arianespaceceo @Arianespace @blueorigin @SpaceX Jones: New Glenn has "had amazing accomplishments over the last 12 months." Begun qualification of booster stages, fairing, and the structure.

Completed final design reviews and "transitioned into execution" and focused on building flight hardware.

@ulalaunch @torybruno @RocketLab @arianespaceceo @Arianespace @blueorigin @SpaceX Ochinero: SpaceX plan is to maintain a launch rate of 1 per week this year "and accelerate that," aiming for more than 50 launches in 2022.

@ulalaunch @torybruno @RocketLab @arianespaceceo @Arianespace @blueorigin @SpaceX Israel: Very confident that Ariane 6 "will be perfect" to supply launches for satellite mega-constellations.

@ulalaunch @torybruno @RocketLab @arianespaceceo @Arianespace @blueorigin @SpaceX Hoffman: Small launch market is "crowded with people that want to crack in on it," but $RKLB has "a significant lead" over others entering.

"The market is not signaling that it is going to blossom like some would hope, and so we're pacing the market" at 1 launch per month.

@ulalaunch @torybruno @RocketLab @arianespaceceo @Arianespace @blueorigin @SpaceX Jones: New Glenn's differentiator is its "size and performance to" low Earth orbit, and I think the rise of mega-constellation demand feels real.

@ulalaunch @torybruno @RocketLab @arianespaceceo @Arianespace @blueorigin @SpaceX Ochinero: Small satellite rideshare program has been gathering momentum and opening up new business cases "that couldn't close in the past."

@ulalaunch @torybruno @RocketLab @arianespaceceo @Arianespace @blueorigin @SpaceX Bruno: I think the market has room for at least 3 U.S. launch providers, a 4th partner in Europe, and 2 small launchers.

Israel: So now we have a very precise crystal ball.

@ulalaunch @torybruno @RocketLab @arianespaceceo @Arianespace @blueorigin @SpaceX Bruno: "Really the only significant overseas footprint" ULA had "was the Russian RD-180 engines, but we accelerated delivery of those last year and have them sitting in a warehouse, "so we're actually not going to be significantly impacted by this."

@ulalaunch @torybruno @RocketLab @arianespaceceo @Arianespace @blueorigin @SpaceX Ochinero: Elon has always emphasized SpaceX owning its critical hardware technology, so we're extremely vertically integrated and have not had major supply chain impacts.

@ulalaunch @torybruno @RocketLab @arianespaceceo @Arianespace @blueorigin @SpaceX Hoffman: $RKLB philosophy is to build in supply chain resilience, through vertical integration and diversity across the value chain (i.e., Electron, Neutron, space systems division, acquisitions).

@ulalaunch @torybruno @RocketLab @arianespaceceo @Arianespace @blueorigin @SpaceX Jones: Blue Origin was targeting end of 2022 for New Glenn's first launch, but that will not happen and don't have a new target yet.

@ulalaunch @torybruno @RocketLab @arianespaceceo @Arianespace @blueorigin @SpaceX Bruno: ULA expects to take delivery of the first flight-ready BE-4 engines in the middle of the year.

Blue Origin is "testing about three times a week" with BE-4 engines.

@ulalaunch @torybruno @RocketLab @arianespaceceo @Arianespace @blueorigin @SpaceX Bruno: Aerojet Rocketdyne is a great rocket engine company, but Vulcan is done being designed so ULA wouldn't switch from BE-4 engines to AR-1 engines.

BE-4 "is nearly complete, it's running beautifully."

@ulalaunch @torybruno @RocketLab @arianespaceceo @Arianespace @blueorigin @SpaceX Hoffman: First $RKLB Electron reuse by helicopter catch "is coming up very soon."

@ulalaunch @torybruno @RocketLab @arianespaceceo @Arianespace @blueorigin @SpaceX Ochinero: SpaceX has 5 Falcon Heavy launches planned for this year, with a "healthy mix" of government and commercial customers.

@ulalaunch @torybruno @RocketLab @arianespaceceo @Arianespace @blueorigin @SpaceX Bruno: ULA "will not make spacecraft. We are a launch company."

@ulalaunch @torybruno @RocketLab @arianespaceceo @Arianespace @blueorigin @SpaceX Hoffman: In contrast, $RKLB is "moving all the way across" from launch to spacecraft and "we're looking at data next."