Once @THORChain has a high % of $rune tokens bonded in nodes, the deposits of non $rune assets in LPs will create a reflective cycle where the $rune value goes up in sync with the LP demand.
That creates unlimited cap space, the network is always overcollateralized.
7. Now let's do some maths.
We'll take the example of what would happen if BlockFI's deposits were deposited in @THORChain.
+- $40B in users deposits.
Offering up to 4% APR on $btc deposits.
Charging like 10% on the loans.
0 yield on collateral + liquidations possible
8.
Compare @THORChain :
- 36% APR on BTCB
- 0% interest
- No liquidations
- No counterparty risk
9.
$40B in users deposits would mean :
$20B non $rune assets * 3 = $60B minimum deterministic value.
If we take the lowest speculative multiplier ever (post 3rd hack) : 3.44, that would mean a $206B marketcap, or $556 per $rune under current circulating supply.
10.
This creates a very secure design free of any externalities and where NOs have no financial incentive to attack the network. They cannot rationally steal any liquidity, they have more to lose.
It is frankly quite capital inefficient and creates network limitations early on.
11.
This is offset by $rune having the highest value capture of any crypto asset.
As you will see in tomorrow's thread, it will enable ThorFI & other protocols to build the most capital efficient designs in crypto on top of it.
This is only possible through the 3x TVL security design and it creates an incredible MOAT for @THORChain.
12.
Synths will open up composability. It will allow other protocols to create value on top of the most capital efficient assets in DEFI.
13.if $gmx held yield bearing synths as collateral for it's perp exchange, it would yield an additional 20% to 80%.3
14.
The protocol itself generates revenues and captures value. It also currently has a high growth rate.
In crypto, P&Es ratio range from $12 ($gmx) to $15 000 ($ltc).
Theses are factors in the speculative multiplier.
15.
Every asset and corporation in the world has a speculative multiplier that varies depending on conditions. S&P historically trades at 12-14x earnings. It went to 45x.
While 3.4x was the lowest multiplier ever on @THORChain, I don't expect it to go lower than 4x.
16.
I would not be surprised if we saw a 10x+ speculative multiplier when we reach mainnet and institutions come in. That'd be $1390 $rune just from BlockFI deposits.
A higher speculative multiplier creates more cap space and creates higher yields for liquidity providers
17.
If you want to experiment with a deterministic value visualizer, you can on this one.
Don't forget that there will always be a speculative multiplier.
Subject : 3rd gen stables - Algorithmic stablecoins
This is pre-requisit knowledge for understanding the THORfi breakdown 🧵 ⬇️
2.
Contest :
I will give away TWO Brookr NFTs among everyone who retweets the first part of the thread.
@BrokkrFinance is having it's token launch event soon. Holders will get a $bro token airdrop.
3.
Defi summer of 2020 saw the explosive beginning of a parallel financial system. Complexity of smart contracts began to be explored with the interest of copying traditional finance functions and some novel ones.
This is pre-requisit knowledge for understanding the THORfi breakdown 🧵 ⬇️
2.
Contest :
I will give away TWO Brookr NFTs among everyone who retweets the first part of the thread.
@BrokkrFinance is having it's token launch event soon. Holders will get a $bro token airdrop.
2.
The first generation of stablecoins are backed by FIAT. $usdc and $usdt are part of this. They are centralized, they censor transactions and address centrally. They are subject to regulatory capture. Not the best asset to build DEFI on.
One of the biggest challenge for @THORChain will be to bond +- 200m $rune in nodes collateral to allow for cap free pools.
Nodes just voted for weighted rewards proportional to bond value through mimir governance.
This is good timing.
2.
We reached the temporary maximum node count while 13 nodes waiting to churn in. This would have created a situation where nodes with $400k $rune would have been excluded.
The weighted bond will allows operators who have 2 or more nodes to consolidate and free up spots.
3.
A new feature : Whitelisted bonding addresses.
While delegating capital to nodes is not 100% trustless, a few trusted parties can now bond together in a single node.
The main node operator should always have more skin in the game than bonders to keep this honest.
If @THORSwap keeps a 25% market share of volume and volumes 3x that would be the approximate buyback rate. This isn’t a very agressive proposition considering the roadmap.
The inflation is 100% distributed to stakers until the may unlock, so is irrelevant.
3.
@THORSwap will also aggregate every major chain / tokens that’s not supported natively by Thorchain. This will also add volume.
What P&E multiple would you give it?
6x would mean 300 circulating market cap. That’s 7.69x from now.