Fascinating claimed intercepted call from Russian officer near Mykolaiv to superiors in Russia. He says:
- This is worse than Chechnya
- 50% of troops have frostbite
- They can’t evacuate the dead
- Don’t have enough tents
- RU plane dropped a bomb on their own position 🧵
- One column was hit with Grad rockets. Can’t even figure out if it was friendly fire
- Medics only have bandages. Can’t help with frostbite
- No hot stove
- Digging trenched to sleep in
- Commander of 49th CAA told troops on 4th day that war will be over in hours
- Troops don’t have body armor. When one complained to commander was told “son, be strong”
- This special operation is a “madhouse”
- Being told not to destroy buildings - it’s insanity. Unless we destroy everything and turn into dirt along with the civilians, nothing can happen
- TV says we are moving forward. But we just drive through without clearing up villages. And now we have to defend from all sides because they are attacking everywhere
- They thought this would be like a parade ride
- Our task was to get to Mykolaiv. And we are sitting here
How long it would take Iran to build a nuke and put it on a delivery vehicle (which is also a far different timeline from when it could just do a demonstration test of a bomb) obviously depends on whether or not they accelerate the pace and decide to run to the finish line
Assessments of timelines are based on current (and partly covert) effort pace, which may not hold in the future.
They are also not including possibilities that Iran requests & receives assistance from other nations, like North Korea and Pakistan, known past nuclear proliferators
Fascinating interview with a private drone designer for the RU military. His knowledge of UKR & Western drones is limited and should be taken with some skepticism but he still presents a quite candid picture into the current state of unmanned warfare:🧵
Russian military was very slow to adapt to drone warfare even though Ukrainian forces have been experimenting with drones on a limited basis in the Donbas well before 2022. Russians dismissed it at the time as mere expensive toys
FPV tactics:
Humvees can be destroyed with a single FPV hit. Russians have learned to hit M1 Abrams tanks in the rear turret compartment that stores ammunition to have it go up in flames consistently. Hitting it in the turbine also disables it completely
Refining of rare earth minerals is NOT a complex issue to solve. In fact, we have partially solved it already!
Story time. Last year I visited the Mountain Pass mine in CA owned by @MPMaterials, the only operating RE mine in North America 🧵
The unique thing about this mine is not just that it is producing ~15% of the world’s RE oxide BUT @MPMaterials is also refining them onsite in an extremely clean way with NO harmful byproducts or pollution.
I wish I could share photos but you could eat off the floor there!
So why is @MPMaterials not refining everything that’s coming out of the mine but ships a lot of it to China today? Chinese dumping!
He Weidong, Vice Chair of the Central Military Commission, one of Xi’s loyalists and old time colleagues, rumored to have been purged recently has not attended a voluntarily tree planting ceremony in Beijing, the first time in over a decade that someone in that role skipped it 🧵
If He is indeed purged by Xi, as is starting to look increasingly likely, it would have significant implications for better understanding Xi’s nature.
It would put his “anti-corruption”purging drive in a very different light
He was part of the Fujian clique, benefiting greatly from close association with Xi during the latter’s rise through party leadership in Fujian. He was also the commander of the PLA’s Eastern Theater Command responsible for any Taiwan operations
Zelensky initially approved the plan, according to one officer who participated and three people familiar with it. But later, when the CIA learned of it and asked the Ukrainian president to pull the plug, he ordered a halt.
Zaluzhniy, who was leading the effort, nonetheless forged ahead.
“An attack of this scale is a sufficient reason to trigger the collective defense clause of NATO, but our critical infrastructure was blown up by a country that we support with massive weapons shipments and billions in cash,” said a senior German official familiar with the probe.
In May of 2022, a handful of senior Ukrainian military officers and businessmen had gathered to toast their country’s remarkable success in halting the Russian invasion. Buoyed by alcohol and patriotic fervor, somebody suggested a radical next step: destroying Nord Stream.