Ahead of today's #SpringStatement, here are 3⃣ things to look out for:
🧵👇
Multi-year vs annual pledges.
The government often announces budget increases by adding up the increases over multiple years, not the annual change as you might expect. An example 👇
Inflation forecasts for 2022 range around 6-8%. That means any pledges to raise budgets by more than this are real-terms increases, while pledges to raise them by less than this amount to real-terms reductions.
And finally, it's worth clarifying that National Insurance is due to rise by 1.25 *percentage points* in April, not by 1.25% (as a number of newspapers have reported).
This might sound pedantic, but it does make quite a big difference to the figures 👉 fullfact.org/news/martin-le…
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On BBC Radio 2 today, a caller misled producers about his intentions in order to get on air, before spreading misinformation about the Covid vaccines.
Presenter @theJeremyVine strongly challenged the false claim, and we applaud him for doing so.
Thread 👇 [1/4]
The false claim the caller mentioned, which is popular online, is that 1500 people have died from the Covid vaccines.
These deaths were reported to have happened *after* vaccination, but not necessarily *because* of vaccination.
[2/4]
These are called Yellow Card reports.
The Yellow Card scheme is used by the medicines regulator to investigate possible links between vaccines and adverse effects, even if the reporter isn’t sure that it was caused by the vaccine.
The 73% figure describes growth since 1990, not since 2010. This means it covers a much longer period that also includes 13 years of Labour government.
Claim 2️⃣
Mr Johnson’s government has reintroduced a system in which all student nurses receive a non-repayable grant from the government, but it does not pay their tuition fees on their behalf, which was the system when the old bursary applied.
Telegraph columnist Allison Pearson claimed that, last week, Sir Patrick Vallance and Chris Whitty presented cherry-picked figures from hospitals on course to run out of beds, despite falling or stable numbers of Covid patients in hospital.
The problem? They didn’t.
[Thread]👇
At the daily briefing on 26 November Sir Patrick and Professor Whitty made no mention of bed capacity at individual hospital trusts.
Sir Patrick noted that, at a national level, the number of Covid-19 patients in hospitals had “flattened.” [2/6]
At no point during the last week have we found any mention from the two advisors of bed occupancy problems in specific hospitals. [3/6]
A Conservative Party Facebook ad seems to have altered the headline of a BBC News article so that it claims there will be a "£14 billion pound cash boost for schools". fullfact.org/news/conservat…
[1/4]
The ads make it appear that the BBC endorsed the £14bn figure, when in fact they criticised it. The BBC told us that the headline on the article has never changed and so has never referred to the £14 bn.
[2/4]
It’s inappropriate for political parties, or any public body, to misrepresent the work of independent journalists in this way.
[3/4]
A viral piece about the link between hedge funds, the Vote Leave campaign and Boris Johnson's leadership bid claims there was a large spike in "shorting" in the lead up to Boris Johnson becoming Conservative leader.
We think Byline Times looked only at the number of active short positions, not all of them.
Shorting is where a fund borrows shares, sells them and hopes the share price falls so they can buy them back at a lower price, return them to the lender, and make a profit.
[2/5]
Because short positions are typically only active for a short period of time, you'd expect the positions active at any given time to be clustered in the recent past.