Some fiscal charts on today's #SpringStatement 🧵- The Chancellor benefitted from a significant improvement in the underlying fiscal outlook, with the OBR expecting cumulative borrowing over the forecast to be over £42bn lower (in today's prices) than expected back in October.
In line with the fall in borrowing, government debt is also forecast to be lower throughout the forecast, with it now expected to fall below 80 per cent of GDP by 2026-27.
The Chancellor has decided to 'spend' only a minority of the improvement in the fiscal outlook on tax cuts. In 2026-27, the OBR project underlying borrowing to be £15bn lower than previously forecast, while new policies add just £3bn to borrowing.
Despite cuts to income tax rates and rise in NICs threshold taxes are still projected to rise as a share of the economy. Government receipts are projected to hit 40% by 2026-27, the highest since 1982 – equating to additional revenue of over £3,000 per household compared to 2019
The Chancellor has left himself significant headroom against his fiscal rules – debt is projected to fall by 1% of GDP in 2024-25. This should allow the government to loosen fiscal policy if the economy deteriorates further.
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The Government’s new Health and Disability Green Paper will deliver tiny income gains for up to four million households, at a cost of major income losses for those who are too ill to work or no longer qualify for disability benefit support. 🧵⤵️
The gains? A boost Universal Credit (UC) support for up to four million families without any health conditions or disability by around £3 a week.
But these are overshadowed by reforms that risk causing major income losses for those too ill to work, or no longer qualify for disability benefits.
The Government plans to save £5 billion through restricting PIP by making it harder to qualify for the ‘daily living’ component.
PIP is a benefit paid regardless of whether someone is in work, to compensate for the additional costs of being disabled.
There are rumours that the Government is looking to cut the benefits bill as it tries to reduce public spending.
But has there been a huge rise in welfare spending in recent years? A quick thread👇
Social security spending rose by around 1% of GDP from the eve of the financial crash to last year, driven by rising spending on the State Pension and non-pensioner health-related benefits.
A rise yes, but hardly ‘huge’. So, is the problem rising welfare spending in the future?
The @DWP forecast is in fact for welfare spending to stay flat as a proportion of GDP from now until 2029-30, with forecast rises in spending on health-related benefits offset by the rollout of around £3bn of planned cuts to other non-pensioner benefits.
Earlier today the justice secretary pointed to a “huge rise in the welfare budget” as justification for benefit cuts to reduce public spending. So, how big has the rise in welfare spending been? 🧵
Social security spending rose by around 1% of GDP from the eve of the financial crash to last year, driven by rising spending on the State Pension and non-pensioner health-related benefits.
A rise yes, but hardly ‘huge’. So, is the problem rising welfare spending in the future?
The @DWP forecast is in fact for welfare spending to stay flat as a proportion of GDP from now until 2029-30, with forecast rises in spending on health-related benefits offset by the rollout of around £3bn of planned cuts to other non-pensioner benefits.
Since 1997 earnings have doubled, while house prices have increased *4.5 times*.
Our Research Director Lindsay Judge spoke to @BBCr4today this morning about the state of British housing 🏡🧵
Our current housing crisis is decades in the making.
The UK is not alone in considering itself in the midst of a crisis, but our cramped and ageing housing offers the worst value for money of any advanced economy.
Looking at 'imputed rents' of homeowners as well as actual rents, we spend more on housing than almost every other rich country.
Back for more? - the Resolution Foundation overnight analysis of the 2024 Spring Budget is out now!
To whet your appetite ahead of reading the full report, here's a six-chart thread with a few of the key highlights....
⬇️⬇️⬇️resolutionfoundation.org/publications/b…
1) Filling out the tax sandwich.
A net tax cut of £9 billion is taking effect in the election year. But this is dwarfed by the estimated £27 billion of tax rises that came into effect last year (2023-24) and the £19 billion that are coming in after the election (2025-27).
2) Shifting state support from the rich to the poor.
RF analysis of all major tax and benefit policies announced in this parliament show finds that typical households are set to gain £420 a year on average, while the poorest fifth gain £840 and the richest fifth lose £1,500.
Kicking off our event @_louisemurphy says that Britain has a youth mental health crisis. One-in-three 18-24-year-olds report having a common mental disorder, rising two-in-five young women.
This is having real-world impacts.
On health, more than half a million 18-24-year-olds were prescribed anti-depressants in 2021-22.
And on the labour market, people in their early 20s are now more likely to be economically inactive due to ill-health than those in their early 40s. This is a big shift over the past 25 years...