The Government’s new Health and Disability Green Paper will deliver tiny income gains for up to four million households, at a cost of major income losses for those who are too ill to work or no longer qualify for disability benefit support. 🧵⤵️ The gains? A boost Universal Credit (UC) support for up to four million families without any health conditions or disability by around £3 a week.

But these are overshadowed by reforms that risk causing major income losses for those too ill to work, or no longer qualify for disability benefits.

There are rumours that the Government is looking to cut the benefits bill as it tries to reduce public spending.

But has there been a huge rise in welfare spending in recent years? A quick thread👇 Social security spending rose by around 1% of GDP from the eve of the financial crash to last year, driven by rising spending on the State Pension and non-pensioner health-related benefits.

A rise yes, but hardly ‘huge’. So, is the problem rising welfare spending in the future?

Earlier today the justice secretary pointed to a “huge rise in the welfare budget” as justification for benefit cuts to reduce public spending. So, how big has the rise in welfare spending been? 🧵 Social security spending rose by around 1% of GDP from the eve of the financial crash to last year, driven by rising spending on the State Pension and non-pensioner health-related benefits.
A rise yes, but hardly ‘huge’. So, is the problem rising welfare spending in the future?

Since 1997 earnings have doubled, while house prices have increased *4.5 times*.

Our Research Director Lindsay Judge spoke to @BBCr4today this morning about the state of British housing 🏡🧵 Our current housing crisis is decades in the making.

The UK is not alone in considering itself in the midst of a crisis, but our cramped and ageing housing offers the worst value for money of any advanced economy.

Back for more? - the Resolution Foundation overnight analysis of the 2024 Spring Budget is out now!



To whet your appetite ahead of reading the full report, here's a six-chart thread with a few of the key highlights....
⬇️⬇️⬇️resolutionfoundation.org/publications/b… 1) Filling out the tax sandwich.

A net tax cut of £9 billion is taking effect in the election year. But this is dwarfed by the estimated £27 billion of tax rises that came into effect last year (2023-24) and the £19 billion that are coming in after the election (2025-27).

Kicking off our event @_louisemurphy says that Britain has a youth mental health crisis. One-in-three 18-24-year-olds report having a common mental disorder, rising two-in-five young women. This is having real-world impacts.

On health, more than half a million 18-24-year-olds were prescribed anti-depressants in 2021-22.

The chancellor has gone for broke on pre-election giveaways. Meanwhile, households are broke, after getting £1,900 poorer over the course of this parliament.

🚨 Full RF analysis of yesterday’s #AutumnStatement is out now. A thread… 🧵⤵️ resolutionfoundation.org/publications/a…
Key takeaways to remember ⤵️

💸 Pre-election tax-cuts today rest on implausible spending cuts tomorrow

💼Well-targeted policies to address tax system bias were welcome

✋As are steps to encourage business investment (but undercut by deeper cuts to public investment)

Speaking at our event, Mary Starks of @FlintGlobal highlights the centrality of moderning our power and water infrastructure for our net zero transition. Regulators will play a key role in driving these changes (and will inevitably be unpopular for doing it!) Mary highlights a key challenge - we know we need to invest a LOT to modernise our infrastructure. But we don't know what investments will actuallly pay off. That's a key challenge for both investors and policy makers...

Today’s migration statistics confirm that post-Brexit migration change has been big – but some of the change is different to what many of us expected... summary 🧵 from RF's @charliejmccurdy ⬇️ The latest migration data for the year ending December 2022 showed that overall net migration rose to 606,000 – driven primarily by non-EU migration (662,000).

Speaking at our event @DAcemogluMIT says history tells us that there is nothing automatic about technological progress leading to rising shared prosperity. Other forces are need to shape the change we want to see. resolutionfoundation.org/events/shaping… @DAcemogluMIT We (@DrDaronAcemoglu & @baselinescene ) don't have the answers to how we can shape the AI revolution (and don't believe anyone who says they do). But we do know that workers need a voice in shaping the revolution if its to deliver shared prosperity....

Today's @ONS inflation data shows CPI inflation for April falling 1.4 percentage points to 8.7%, the largest fall in more than 30 years. But this was a smaller fall than the market and @bankofengland expected, due to rising core inflation and continued high food inflation. 🧵 The 1.4ppt drop in CPI inflation on the month was driven by a huge (and expected) fall in energy prices as the big rise a year ago drops out of the annual calculation. This is six times the average absolute change in CPI inflation.

What lies in store for next week's Budget? When it comes to the economic outlook, our analysis finds good & bad news for Jeremy Hunt. The good news? Lower wholesale energy prices & higher GDP. A recession is still forecast but is likely to be the shallowest one since the 1950s🧵 However, despite the good news on energy costs, typical household working-age household disposable incomes are still on track to fall by 2% in 2022-23 and 4% n 2022-23 - a simply huge living standards squeeze...

Kicking off our event @TorstenBell notes that the mood music is very much a 'back to normal' Budget with no crises (external or self-inflicted) to respond to. But the economy is far from 'back to normal' for the public, as their pay packets and incomes are still falling.... @TorstenBell Kicking off her presentation @carapacitti starts with the good news - lower wholesale energy prices & higher GDP. A recession in 2023 is still forecast, but it's likely to be the shallowest one since the 1950s....

Economic inactivity among all adults has risen by 830,000 since the start of the pandemic, with more than three-quarters of this rise among people aged 50 and above. But is this really the right group to focus on when it comes to tackling economic inactivity? 🧵 The cohort of older workers who have left the labour market since the start of the pandemic have disproportionately come from high-paying, professional industries; many of these adults will be living comfortably, and government policy is unlikely to prompt them to ‘un-retire’.

Evening thread: Five key takeaways from our new report, which explores labour force participation in the UK... Takeaway #1 - there was a big rise in inactivity during the pandemic - and it was people aged 50 and above who were the most affected.. #2 - Focusing on inactivity among older workers probably isn't the best plan (even if the Government seems keen to pursue this line). Our report finds older workers are unlikely to want to ‘unretire’, especially if they are financially secure.

THREAD: Here are five key takeaways from our new report, which explores labour force participation in the UK. Takeaway #1 - there was a big rise in inactivity during the pandemic - and it was people aged 50 and above who were the most affected... resolutionfoundation.org/publications/p… #2 - Focusing on inactivity among older workers probably isn't the best plan (even if the Government seems keen to pursue this line). Our report finds older workers are unlikely to want to ‘unretire’, especially if they are financially secure.

Rising economic inactivity has dominated headlines in recent months and policies to address this are set to play a part in next month’s Budget. Today’s report looks beneath these headlines, to understand the nature of the problem and outline key areas of focus for policy makers🧵 It’s understandable that policy makers are focused on rising economic inactivity, since this comes off the back of a decade of fast-rising labour force participation, with the participation rate among adults aged 16-64 rising from 76.6 per cent in 2010 to 79.2 per cent in 2019.

Presenting the highlights from our new research out today, @_louisemurphy says that much of the recent focus in Westminster has been on 'unretiring' the recent Covid cohort of older workers. This is understandable, but this approach is wrong-headed... @_louisemurphy This focus is understandable given the big rise in economic inactivity among those aged 50 and over - who account for three-quarters of the rise since 2019.

Across the years, different Governments have introduced schemes to help people to save. But our new report finds little evidence these policies have encouraged more people to save. Instead, evidence suggests that rich individuals have gained the lion’s share of support 🧵 For example, 41% of the £1.3 billion of foregone tax revenue from savings allowances goes to the richest tenth of households, reflecting their far higher levels of saving.

Out today: our new report, in partnership with @finan_fairness, takes a look at the scale and distribution of savings across the UK. We find that, if you look at typical savings levels across the income distribution, many low-income families have little or no savings.🧵 Households in the bottom half of the income distribution typically have savings of just £3,000 per adult, while around 750,000 lower-income families have no savings at all.

On to the Q&A, @jackhleslie says that while low income is clearly the obvious barrier to Universal Credit claimants using Help to Save more, the fact that 92% of deposits are at the £50 monthly limit suggests a willingness to save more. This is why the limit should be doubled. @jackhleslie How you would reform savings policy? @paullewismoney says that Help to Save has to be exempted from the capital rules in Universal Credit - two policies working in opposite directions... He says that raising the £50 monthly savings limit might not be popular with some MPs though.