It’s hard to overstate the scale of the cost of living crisis coming - but the Chancellor has prioritised burnishing his tax-cutting credentials over support for the low-to-middle income households hardest hit by this crisis - THREAD
Rising inflation is forecast to make the year ahead very difficult for family finances. Real household income per person is set to fall by 2.2 per cent in 2022-23, the largest financial year fall on record going back to 1956-57.
The current fall in real wages is not projected to end until late 2023, and will leave average wages no higher than in 2007.
The highest inflation in 40 years also means that real household disposable income per person – a key measure of living standards – is forecast to fall faster in 2022-23 than in any other financial year on record (back to 1956-57) even after measures announced in today.
Given this situation, the Chancellor has chosen to significantly expand his previously announced energy cost support measures, that now add up to a total of £19.4 billion.
However, this package of immediate support is poorly targeted at those most likely to struggle with the rising cost of living, with only £1 in every £3 announced today going to the bottom half of the income distribution.
Read our full reaction here - and keep an eye out for our full overnight analysis, which we'll be publishing first thing tomorrow - and presenting at our 9:00am event, which you can sign up to watch here: resolutionfoundation.org/events/waiting…
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Since 1997 earnings have doubled, while house prices have increased *4.5 times*.
Our Research Director Lindsay Judge spoke to @BBCr4today this morning about the state of British housing 🏡🧵
Our current housing crisis is decades in the making.
The UK is not alone in considering itself in the midst of a crisis, but our cramped and ageing housing offers the worst value for money of any advanced economy.
Looking at 'imputed rents' of homeowners as well as actual rents, we spend more on housing than almost every other rich country.
Back for more? - the Resolution Foundation overnight analysis of the 2024 Spring Budget is out now!
To whet your appetite ahead of reading the full report, here's a six-chart thread with a few of the key highlights....
⬇️⬇️⬇️resolutionfoundation.org/publications/b…
1) Filling out the tax sandwich.
A net tax cut of £9 billion is taking effect in the election year. But this is dwarfed by the estimated £27 billion of tax rises that came into effect last year (2023-24) and the £19 billion that are coming in after the election (2025-27).
2) Shifting state support from the rich to the poor.
RF analysis of all major tax and benefit policies announced in this parliament show finds that typical households are set to gain £420 a year on average, while the poorest fifth gain £840 and the richest fifth lose £1,500.
Kicking off our event @_louisemurphy says that Britain has a youth mental health crisis. One-in-three 18-24-year-olds report having a common mental disorder, rising two-in-five young women.
This is having real-world impacts.
On health, more than half a million 18-24-year-olds were prescribed anti-depressants in 2021-22.
And on the labour market, people in their early 20s are now more likely to be economically inactive due to ill-health than those in their early 40s. This is a big shift over the past 25 years...
The chancellor has gone for broke on pre-election giveaways. Meanwhile, households are broke, after getting £1,900 poorer over the course of this parliament.
💸 Pre-election tax-cuts today rest on implausible spending cuts tomorrow
💼Well-targeted policies to address tax system bias were welcome
✋As are steps to encourage business investment (but undercut by deeper cuts to public investment)
First up, some of the pain has been delayed.
The @OBR_UK shifted slow economic growth into the future.
The UK economy was more resilient than expected this year (growth revised ⬆️from -0.2% to 0.6%), but things look worse next year (growth revised ⬇️from 1.8% to 0.7%).
Speaking at our event, Mary Starks of @FlintGlobal highlights the centrality of moderning our power and water infrastructure for our net zero transition. Regulators will play a key role in driving these changes (and will inevitably be unpopular for doing it!)
Mary highlights a key challenge - we know we need to invest a LOT to modernise our infrastructure. But we don't know what investments will actuallly pay off. That's a key challenge for both investors and policy makers...
Another big infrastrucuture challenge - persuading investors that projects will pay off over a 30-50 year period, and won't be pushed off course by electoral cycles. This is a big task for regulators overseeing these projects, and is getting harder as the scale of need grows.
Today’s migration statistics confirm that post-Brexit migration change has been big – but some of the change is different to what many of us expected... summary 🧵 from RF's @charliejmccurdy ⬇️
The latest migration data for the year ending December 2022 showed that overall net migration rose to 606,000 – driven primarily by non-EU migration (662,000).
Among non-EU migrants, the most common reasons for coming to the UK were to study (39%) to work (25%) or for humanitarian reasons (19%). The recent rise has been driven by unique factors, such as the Ukraine war and the end of Covid-19 restrictions (more students arrived).