It’s hard to overstate the scale of the cost of living crisis coming - but the Chancellor has prioritised burnishing his tax-cutting credentials over support for the low-to-middle income households hardest hit by this crisis - THREAD
Rising inflation is forecast to make the year ahead very difficult for family finances. Real household income per person is set to fall by 2.2 per cent in 2022-23, the largest financial year fall on record going back to 1956-57.
The current fall in real wages is not projected to end until late 2023, and will leave average wages no higher than in 2007.
The highest inflation in 40 years also means that real household disposable income per person – a key measure of living standards – is forecast to fall faster in 2022-23 than in any other financial year on record (back to 1956-57) even after measures announced in today.
Given this situation, the Chancellor has chosen to significantly expand his previously announced energy cost support measures, that now add up to a total of £19.4 billion.
However, this package of immediate support is poorly targeted at those most likely to struggle with the rising cost of living, with only £1 in every £3 announced today going to the bottom half of the income distribution.
Read our full reaction here - and keep an eye out for our full overnight analysis, which we'll be publishing first thing tomorrow - and presenting at our 9:00am event, which you can sign up to watch here: resolutionfoundation.org/events/waiting…
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The Government’s new Health and Disability Green Paper will deliver tiny income gains for up to four million households, at a cost of major income losses for those who are too ill to work or no longer qualify for disability benefit support. 🧵⤵️
The gains? A boost Universal Credit (UC) support for up to four million families without any health conditions or disability by around £3 a week.
But these are overshadowed by reforms that risk causing major income losses for those too ill to work, or no longer qualify for disability benefits.
The Government plans to save £5 billion through restricting PIP by making it harder to qualify for the ‘daily living’ component.
PIP is a benefit paid regardless of whether someone is in work, to compensate for the additional costs of being disabled.
There are rumours that the Government is looking to cut the benefits bill as it tries to reduce public spending.
But has there been a huge rise in welfare spending in recent years? A quick thread👇
Social security spending rose by around 1% of GDP from the eve of the financial crash to last year, driven by rising spending on the State Pension and non-pensioner health-related benefits.
A rise yes, but hardly ‘huge’. So, is the problem rising welfare spending in the future?
The @DWP forecast is in fact for welfare spending to stay flat as a proportion of GDP from now until 2029-30, with forecast rises in spending on health-related benefits offset by the rollout of around £3bn of planned cuts to other non-pensioner benefits.
Earlier today the justice secretary pointed to a “huge rise in the welfare budget” as justification for benefit cuts to reduce public spending. So, how big has the rise in welfare spending been? 🧵
Social security spending rose by around 1% of GDP from the eve of the financial crash to last year, driven by rising spending on the State Pension and non-pensioner health-related benefits.
A rise yes, but hardly ‘huge’. So, is the problem rising welfare spending in the future?
The @DWP forecast is in fact for welfare spending to stay flat as a proportion of GDP from now until 2029-30, with forecast rises in spending on health-related benefits offset by the rollout of around £3bn of planned cuts to other non-pensioner benefits.
Since 1997 earnings have doubled, while house prices have increased *4.5 times*.
Our Research Director Lindsay Judge spoke to @BBCr4today this morning about the state of British housing 🏡🧵
Our current housing crisis is decades in the making.
The UK is not alone in considering itself in the midst of a crisis, but our cramped and ageing housing offers the worst value for money of any advanced economy.
Looking at 'imputed rents' of homeowners as well as actual rents, we spend more on housing than almost every other rich country.
Back for more? - the Resolution Foundation overnight analysis of the 2024 Spring Budget is out now!
To whet your appetite ahead of reading the full report, here's a six-chart thread with a few of the key highlights....
⬇️⬇️⬇️resolutionfoundation.org/publications/b…
1) Filling out the tax sandwich.
A net tax cut of £9 billion is taking effect in the election year. But this is dwarfed by the estimated £27 billion of tax rises that came into effect last year (2023-24) and the £19 billion that are coming in after the election (2025-27).
2) Shifting state support from the rich to the poor.
RF analysis of all major tax and benefit policies announced in this parliament show finds that typical households are set to gain £420 a year on average, while the poorest fifth gain £840 and the richest fifth lose £1,500.
Kicking off our event @_louisemurphy says that Britain has a youth mental health crisis. One-in-three 18-24-year-olds report having a common mental disorder, rising two-in-five young women.
This is having real-world impacts.
On health, more than half a million 18-24-year-olds were prescribed anti-depressants in 2021-22.
And on the labour market, people in their early 20s are now more likely to be economically inactive due to ill-health than those in their early 40s. This is a big shift over the past 25 years...