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Alastair Thompson Profile picture
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Mar 23 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
#GeostrategicWeather #UkraineWar #UkraineThaw

The long term forecast for weather over Europe shows temperatures rising in Ukraine for the next 9 days through to April 1st. This animation shows midday temperatures each day from the @ECMWF model.
@ECMWF The cause of this clear weather is a fairly stable stationary high pressure system over Europe.
Here is the GFS model version of the same data - Europe wide. Ukraine is not the only beneficiary of this period of favourable weather across Europe.

At the end of this 16-day animation you can see the impact of an atmospheric river which will also bring rain to Ukraine.
This animation shows accumulating rain over Ukraine. It will be relatively dry till 31st March when this animation begins as the atmospheric river arrives.

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Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Mar 23
Putin is playing a game of Chicken with the EU over natural gas, which was always predictable.

I can't help thinking that arming Ukraine was a strategic mistake, had it not been able to defend itself so effectively this war would not have escalated so far so quickly.
Whilst doubtless an unpopular viewpoint now, if the Russian attempted occupation and war continues through the summer, with all its attendant death, mayhem and ensuing economic and global chaos, the alternative of having a short war and negotiations may grow more attractive.
Of course its too late now. And this request will likely be refused during the EU-US summit tomorrow, risking further escalation in the form of gas supplies to the EU being curtailed/halted.

On the positive side, like Covid, this might result in a fall in carbon emissions.
Read 26 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Mar 23
No sign of any hearings today on #HR6600 or #S3199 foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearings
foreign.senate.gov/hearings?mode=…

Borkena has a report that Envoy Satterfield is in Addis and not being granted meetings. borkena.com/2022/03/22/us-…
Also. What is this about?

Has AAA read the "Ethiopia Stabilization, Peace, and Democracy Act"?

The bill looks like it was drafted by TPLF misinformation operatives - the preamble is factually challenged and it is paternalistic/imperialist in extremis. amharaamerica.org/post/statement…
The bill was proposed by Senators @ChrisCoons and @SenatorRisch back on Nov 4th 2021, as TPLF was marching on Addis - and @StateDept was calling for Americans to leave.

Senate info on the bill is here >> congress.gov/bill/117th-con…
Read 13 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Mar 22
Right on schedule, @SamanthaJPower Power - on the eve of another attempt to undermine Ethiopian Sovereignty on Capitol Hill - tweets a piece of terrible, @StateDept funded faux-journalism by @declanwalsh and @MarksSimon in the @nytimes.
But what is perhaps most despicable about this latest @dnc Democratic Party led effort to destroy Ethiopian independence, is the cowardly manner in which it is being pushed through under the cover of the war in Ukraine.

The parallels and hypocrisy here are legion.
Imperialism by way of war is imperialism by way of war, whether it is practiced by Russia over a former territory of the Russian empire, or by the U.S. in support of a former proxy authoritarian govt in Africa.
Read 5 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Mar 22
#Equinox is also the moment when the incoming energy balance shifts from the Southern to the Northern Hemisphere, and it was marked this year with some extraordinary temperature anomalies in the Arctic and Antarctic. Both caused by atmospheric rivers.

#ClimateChangeNow thread... ImageImage
And this year the northern hemisphere #extremeweather season has a Herald, a designated tropical disturbance which the JTWC had thought might become a cyclone. Whilst early this morning a cyclone formation warning was cancelled, the storm appears to not be giving up so easily.
This @zoom_earth animation shows the last six hours of explosive convection which picked up quickly after the storm moved back over the sea in the Bay of Bengal.
Read 37 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Mar 22
Global model forecasts show rains are arriving in East Africa now. Forecasts show heavier rains arriving earlier than last year, with significant rains forecast for the next fortnight in the HoA + Uganda & Western Tanzania.

See 2021 rain thread below:
The forecast above is from 19th March as is this satellite animation which shows convection increasing over Ethiopia's highlands the source of the majority of flow in the Nile river.
This animation from today shows a very similar picture. Both show a period of 24 hours of cloud activity over the horn.
Read 9 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Mar 21
The bit about this IV that annoyed me was the usually polite @margbrennan constantly talking over the Ambassador, and missing the bit where he used the word “complicity”, expanding on that would have helped unravel what is really happening with China here.
Whilst Russia is the villain here, the efforts by the US to tar others with this conflict, China, Eritrea and the numerous African nations which did not vote on the UNGA resolution are tone-deaf at best, and just remind the world of US’s own destructive wars.
The U.S.’s consistent posture as savior/guardian/scolder in chief wrt a world order which it pays scant/inconsistent service to does little to endear it in many parts of the world.
Read 4 tweets

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