Before the invasion began, it looked like there were a couple possibilities for the Russians, strengthen claims to Donbas, Luhansk, Crimea or expand them westward possibly to Dnieper or go for all of Ukraine, take Kiev and decapitate the government.
They tried the last option, the big one, and are failing. Now there are rumblings they may fall back to the least ambitious option--after having devastated Ukraine and their own army. If they do, and it's a way out for Ukraine...well, that's up to Ukraine.
But, by any other metric it will have been a failure, a black eye for Russia, the economic consequences of sanctions and the war itself will take many years from which to recover and even if Ukraine cedes those territories, it can be a win for Kiev and Zelenskyy.
Even if there is an agreement that Ukraine won't join NATO, a different kind of security arrangement can be reached. For example, perhaps Ukraine could become part of the EU and instead of an influx of Western troops to protect Ukraine in future...
...an influx of Western aid workers, businesses and representatives of multilateral helping to rebuild the country (which will take years and cost hundreds of billions of dollars) would have the effect of making a future attack next to impossible.
We're a long way from this deal or any deal...but recent signs have made scenarios like this one worth contemplating. (Even as options for responding to possible escalation are as well.)
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