Have received a number of challenges and pushback to my equation of Putin's horrific Ukraine blunder with George W. Bush's Iraq one. Here’s my answer (forgive me: it’s a quiet morning) 1.
This isn’t a moral contest, which I wouldn’t begin to know how to measure. It’s not ethical math. One’s invasion is a narcissistic swing for history based on bad intel bullied out of nervous professionals. The other is what Putin is up to. 2
Both invasions were based on manipulated ignorance. Fwiw, Ukraine is next door to Russia. Iraq is halfway around the world from us. I emphasise geography because some still believe Bush was well intentioned while Putin is dark. I agree Putin is a war criminal.3
But if you consult a map, it should give you pause. Bush/Cheney got the system, including the media, to frame Iraq. My equivalence is about geopolitics. I don’t doubt Putin’s threat is existential & he must lose. If you’re a small country, you’ll feel Putin’s menace more keenly.4
If you’re informed person in a big country, you’ll agree. So why do I compare the two? Most of world isn’t imposing sanctions. Some of that’s pragmatic – China likes Russia as client state, India wants cheap energy & Russian mil supply, Latam doesn’t feel transatlantic tug 5
But a lot of it’s about west’s battered reputation. Iraq did immeasurable damage - worse than Vietnam. Took place at the peak of sympathy for post-9/11 US. World watched America squander that goodwill in a goose chase any 15-year-old Indian, African or European, knew was wild.6
The legacy of Iraq endures more virulently than most Americans know. Am regularly struck by how strongly it has imprinted itself around the world. Iraq denuded the west, including the UK, of something less easily replaceable than money or weapons – trust and credibility. 7
Same for other results of 9/11 (G’tmo, NSA, rendition etc) – am using Iraq as shorthand. Did US deliberately target civilians? No. Does Putin target hospitals? Yes. He’s more calculatedly brutal than anything west's done since colonialism (as an imperialist, it’s no coincidence)8
But he’s free of hypocrisy & owns being a killer. Doubt I’ll ever convince my less open-minded US & British friends the resentment others feel when we work ourselves into a moral lather & conveniently forget all the money we’ve made & blind eyes we’ve turned.9
Which is self-harming as it limits on our ability to bring others along when we need them to – when butchery is happening and everyone’s stability is in danger. On Ukraine, the US is in the right legal, political & moral position and Biden is a very good leader for this.10
But we can’t get too righteous with others for fence-sitting. The US has to make our case in continents that aren’t complying with sanctions because they’re cynical & fearful of western policy. We need to convince sceptics everywhere this time west’s logic can be trusted.11
A big chunk of distrust stems from Iraq – and related pathologies stemming from 9/11. The more America can see itself through the lens of other countries & cultures, the more it’ll be to bring them along at threatening existential moments like this. That’s diplomacy. 12
We rightly oppose Russia for its barbaric solipsism. Putin wasn’t even aware Ukrainians took pride in being Ukrainian! So he murders them. We should take the trouble to see how others see us. Since we need their support, it would be the minimally competent thing to do. End
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The more Rittenhouse sinks in, the more unhinged today's America seems. Leave aside the debate over race narrative. No other democratic system would let teenagers, or citizens of any age, go where they please with ultra-lethal weapons, discharge, then claim self-defence. Thread
There’s no parallel universe in which an adolescent with a military-designed assault weapon is making their own life safer, or anyone else’s. The fact that at least one of Rittenhouse’s victims was armed reinforces the point. People with guns attract and create violence.(2)
But what’s most nuts is that public safety isn’t America’s main concern here. Instead we have a meta-debate about biases of each side’s coverage – one making a hero out of an overgrown-child vigilante, the other fitting him into a white supremacist narrative. (3)
Worth emphasising the scale of the disaster Trump has wrought in the week since his call with Erdogan. 1. Revived Isis. 2. Cemented Assad’s grip on Syria. 3. Handed Russia yet another geopolitical windfall. 4. Betrayed the Kurds. 5. Immeasurably harmed US power. Thread 1.
Of these, the last is the worst. I grew up in a world where, for all its faults, America was the last line of defence against barbarism. It took a long time to build that reputation, and it was often breached (Vietnam etc). It was nevertheless real. Trump is destroying it. 2.
The Kurds lost thousands of people defeating Isis. Trump has driven the Kurds into Russia's arms. The Russians mocked them (at the UN last week) for ever having trusted America, even while the US and Russia voted together against Europe to prevent a humanitarian pause. 3.
Worth elaborating on the level of incompetence Trump showed today on Kashmir. Those unfamiliar with Indo-Pak situation may not realise that his offer to mediate on Kashmir dispute ranks among the most consequential mistakes he has made. But that's the least of it (1).
He lied in the most idiotic way possible - one that would e immediately refuted by a fellow leader. "I was with Modi two weeks ago and we talked about this subject. And he actually said, would you actually like to be a mediator or arbitrator? I said, where? He said Kashmir." (2)
Within an hour India declared that what Trump said was false: twitter.com/MEAIndia/statu The slightest knowledge of India would have told Trump that this is the kind of lie that would a) immediately be shut down and b) cause material harm to a critical US diplomatic relationship (3)
Those downplaying #Khashoggi's murder are practising serial whatabouttery: Why don't you care Saudi's bombing of Yemeni civilians? What about the hypocrisy of those who supported the Iraq war? Or Khashoggi's support for the Muslim Brotherhood? Here is why it matters. Thread 1.
2. Khashoggi’s murder is a key insight into the methods of a crown prince who wants to trigger a US war with Iran. The Iraq war was a disaster. An Iranian one could be worse. MBS’s support for Trump, Khushner et al was contingent in part on Trump pulling out of the Iran deal.
3. Khashoggi was a strong supporter of the Arab Spring. The House of Saud was already an enemy of free media, democracy and any kind of accountability. MBS is a visceral opponent. What MBS fears most is moderate Islamic democracy – something Khashoggi supported.