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Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
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Mar 27 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
If Russia is really deploying more forces around Kyiv, and planning on restarting offensive operations, it would be a sign that they really dont have a solid grasp of the strategic situation. Kyiv now would be one of the best defended cities on the earth.
The Russians would need a massive build up to attempt to take Kyiv.
If, otoh, Russia is pulling troops from Sumy and Kharkiv, as reports indicate, to push in two separate directions (down from Kharkiv towards Donbas and also back towards Kyiv), they are not concentrating on an Eastern Strategy.

Leaves the Ukrainians on interior lines and the Russians back to the separate unsupported drives with little coordination.
If the Ukrainians are pushing the Russians back around Irpin, the idea that the Russians are preparing to restart their assault on Kyiv seems ridiculous. Wondering now if this is simply a distraction to try and keep the Ukrainians from sending forces east?
Finally. That the Russians are about to restart efforts to take Kyiv made no sense. Their armies are being pushed back; will be exhausted and still having supply issues. They will be lucky to hold their positions.
Maybe Moscow was barking orders for them to advance, but the reality would have to be otherwise
This actually makes some sense too. Im always wary about saying that Russian strategy is accepting of the reality of the situation, but fighting in such a way that they can increase their negotiating leverage would be for them the best option.
Russia has supposedly pulled 2 BTGs away from Kyiv. If true, no assault can/will be attempted on Kyiv in the near future. Assumption is that these BTGs will need rest and then maybe head to Donbas. First Battle of Kyiv is over. Lets hope its the last.
If true, the Russian force to the west of Kyiv has an increasingly dangerous position. If troops are being pulled out or at best no new ones are coming in, and the Ukrainians are pressing in from both sides, that Russian force should be in serious trouble.

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 29
This might be counter-intuitive, but the mediocre (to be kind) performance of the Russian military in Kyiv means that Europe and the USA do not need to rush out and spend billions more right away on their militaries. It means they have a window to plan for the future.
They should do this properly. Learn the lessons of this conflict, not waste money on systems that could be of questionable value (tanks?), and take advantage of the significant security window Russia is giving them.
There are a number of fundamental questions that need to be analyzed before we rush off to spend billions and billions. Even before looking at the war we need to start with these two:
Read 6 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 29
First Battle of Kyiv looks to be truly over. That is actually momentous. Whatever happens now we are talking about a limited war time and geography-wise--unless we think Russia has the will and resources to conscript, train and arm an entirely new army.
If the Russians are pulling back from Kyiv (which looks likely), coming back will be very very hard without basically societal mobilization. They will probably divert all remaining combat worthy forces to try and consolidate Donbass and East.
Worth noting that this also means Russia is dropping its plan for Odessa--unless something remarkable happens.
Read 16 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 29
New stories that Russia will have to accept Ukraine in the EU if Ukraine stays out of NATO. I hope people understand that if this happens, its a major victory for Ukraine.
There are alot of people saying--but the EU wont let Ukraine in right away. In a pre-Feb 24 world Im sure they are right. However, I wonder if we are underestimating the impact of Feb 24 on Europe. The EU always hedged on Ukraine because they safely knew Russia objected
If the EU turns around now, after what the Ukrainians have sacrificed for the right to join the EU and says no to membership--it will seem extraordinarily petty and a rejection of everything that the EU should stand for.
Read 9 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 29
A thought thread on the most remarkable thing of the war--here we are more than a month in this, and the Ukrainians are openly transporting equipment on major roads under clear blue skies. This represents an almost total failure of Russian airpower.
And as this is a captured Russian piece of equipment, it would have to be relatively close to the place of capture, so we are talking near the war zone.
This cuts both ways, there are pictures of Russian columns operating in the open in clear skies--yes they can get attacked but they can also operate much of the time.
Read 10 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 28
Weirdest story of the day. Which makes most sense.
1) someone in Abramovich's entourage poisoned everyone and got his boss (by accident?)
2) Abramovich tried to poison the Ukrainians and got himself too.
3) Russian intelligence poisoned their own delegation to get the Ukrainians.
Has Abramovich been back in Russia since then? Maybe it was an attempt on him. I remember he flew to Istanbul a while ago. What a strange, strange story.
Reuters reporting it was environmental factors, so the great mystery is maybe not so mysterious.
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 28
This is all true, but you could write the same story for almost every major European country and the USA.
You have USA (Trump administration), UK (money laundering extraordinaire plus funding of governing party), Italy (huge support for populist movement-Salvini) France (NF, far left), to go along with Germany
Whats weird is that many people seem to delight in pointing out people doing Putin's work in other countries, but they dont spend nearly as much time honestly evaluating their own systems.
Read 4 tweets

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