Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 27, 2022 13 tweets 5 min read Read on X
This thread🧵will lay out the reasons I think the Russians blew the technological development necessary to deal with drone threats in Ukraine & elsewhere.

Like all really important problems, it starts with how badly you treat people...in this case, Russian engineers.👇
1/
Ukrainian media sources have noted a massive emigration of Russian STEM workers for at least 5-years.

There is a reason for this. Putin issued a decree stating that STEM workers were a "National Resource." AKA they could be taken as a state slave.

They took the hint.
2/
The bill for this came due in 2018.

In January 2018 there were DIY armed drone attacks on the Russian Khmeimim airbase & the Tartus, Syria naval base.

The drones drew on existing radio controlled aircraft technology. They had diesel engines,
3/ Image
...wood, plastic and Styrofoam construction, global positioning system guidance & aerometer altitude sensors.

The larger of the two DIY drones carried up to ten bomblets and had an estimated range of 100 KM.

Drone bomblets made using mortar fuses, 3D printed fins
4/ Image
and fuse mounting bodies with lots of plastic tape in between to hold it all together!

It wasn't like this was a surprise.

Armed DIY drones were literally a in the air reality for a couple of years at that time thanks to ISIS.

5/
defensenews.com/digital-show-d…
Yet this 'surprise' cost Russia oh so much more than the pin pricks ISIS was inflicting on US Forces.

The pictured Russian Su-24 pictured cost an estimated $50 million. It had to be returned by freighter to Russia to be rebuilt.

6/ Image
Media sources at the time placed the total damage at anywhere between three strike fighters to seven strike fighters & a Hind gunship.

Hinds were death on rotary wings in Syria.

medium.com/war-is-boring/…
7/
Drones costing maybe $100,000 put between $50 million to $400 million in high tech aircraft out of action for months. There are a -lot- of implications in those numbers.

I wrote a blog post on that attack and 23 others between Jan & Aug 2018 here:

chicagoboyz.net/archives/57931…
8/
Low slow aircraft with precision munitions have been a b--ch of an air defense problem for decades.

The loss of the battleship Bismarck was due in part because the ship's AA fire controls couldn't engage a 100 kt aerial target.

9/
And while Russia is in a nasty situation regards up to date IC ships. The real issue with the TOR and Pantshir-1 isn't chips. It is the software processing it's radar returns.

10/
Soviet era electrical engineers wrote really tight tight code that maxed out their systems performance compared to Western code practices.

They had no choice and were well rewarded when they did.
An electronically scanned radar has the ability to track a small, slow drone's doppler shift returns with the right software code using older IC chips, _IF_ you have the right engineering talent.
That talent left Putin's Russia.

Whatever Russia's corrupt military procurement system did in that time with the Pantshir-1 radar software.

It didn't involved anyone competent, assuming anything was done, other than someone stealing the money.

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More from @TrentTelenko

Dec 21
The following is evaluation is based on a number of professional discussions:

This CRPA found in a shot down jet Shaheed is reported to be Russian built. This is highly doubtful as the design and construction style looks far too professional for Russian industry.

1/
Bluntly - Russians tend towards cheapskate up-front capital manufacturing solutions.

The upshot is injection molded and die cast components are not a common feature in Russian designs as tooling for manufacturing designs is expensive up front,

2/
...even if the mass production unit costs are lower.

In addition, Western style SMA RF connectors are not a feature of the Soviet technology base.

Nor is the RF coax with a transparent jacket.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Dec 19
Let us be clear what has happened here.

Ukraine has a drone armed merchant raider lose in the Mediterranean hunting Russian shadow tankers.

Upshot: There will be more elsewhere on the world's oceans in the near future effecting maritime trade.

2025 Merchant Armed Raider 🧵
1/
@grok answered the following questions for me:

" Please summarize the pre-World War 1 to 1942 career of merchant armed raiders and compare that data to Ukraine's recent drone attack in the Mediterranean with a drone armed commercial vessel."

2/ Image
Image
Image
This is @grok's final summary:

"In essence, Ukraine's approach modernizes the raider concept—swapping guns for drones and merchant disguises for stealthy launches— but lacks the historical volume due to the conflict's constraints.

3/
Read 11 tweets
Dec 11
US Ground force flag ranks deny this 2025 reality 🤡⬇️

"The Ukraine war has exposed a large and increasing gap between Western reconnaissance doctrine and modern conventional battlefield reality.
1/3
In Donetsk, reconnaissance operators face constant drone surveillance, electromagnetic degradation, and hyper-local combat conditions that invalidate long-held assumptions about stealth and standoff intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR).

2/3
This article contends that NATO must, with urgency, reform its reconnaissance doctrine, training, and force structure to survive and efficiently operate in a drone-saturated battlefield."

Upton Sinclair reports:
3/3 Image
Read 4 tweets
Dec 9
I said this about the US Navy in 2023 (⬇️)

....and the institutional failures on display in the USS Truman CVBG Red Sea deployment proved me correct in 2025.

1/2
Every competent USN surface officer knows in their gut an anti-aircraft cruiser should not be operating with downed identification friend or foe (IFF) and Link-16 data link with no E-2 Hawkeye AEW support.

2/
news.usni.org/2025/12/04/inv…
Those officers know in their guts that radar skin paints alone from their ship's SPY-1 will be borderline for high tempo engagements...

...but this is not the first time this kind of problem occurred:

3/
twz.com/air/how-uss-ge…
Read 6 tweets
Nov 16
Just...listen...to this video clip with your eyes closed.

The predominant sound isn't artillery.
It isn't assault rifles.

It is the scream of drone rotors coming close, punctuated with the explosion of the drone upon impact.

1/3
That sound drama isn't World War One or any "medium intensity" conflict since 1918.

It is the sound of how 21st century Peer-to-Peer conflict is fought.

A conflict Western ground militaries are obsolescent in equipment to face.

2/3
That Russo-Ukraine War video is a soundscape US Army National Training Centers are too obsolete/incapable of replicating, because US Army flag ranks are allergic to training with high densities of small/cheap/many FPV drones.

3/3 Image
Read 4 tweets
Nov 10
WW2 is calling again with Ukraine developing Drone version of SHORAN.

_SH_ort
_RA_nge
_N_avigation

1/
SHORAN was a WW2 blind bombing system using two radio stations and an electromechanical computer.

In 1938 an RCA engineer named Stuart William Seeley, while attempting to remove "ghost" signals from an experimental television system, discovered he could measure distances
2/ Image
...by time differences in radio reception.

Instead of building a radar unit with this discovery, he proposed using this technique for precision ground-based radio beacon navigation bombing aid.

3/ Image
Read 12 tweets

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