This thread🧵will lay out the reasons I think the Russians blew the technological development necessary to deal with drone threats in Ukraine & elsewhere.
Like all really important problems, it starts with how badly you treat people...in this case, Russian engineers.👇 1/
Drones costing maybe $100,000 put between $50 million to $400 million in high tech aircraft out of action for months. There are a -lot- of implications in those numbers.
I wrote a blog post on that attack and 23 others between Jan & Aug 2018 here:
And while Russia is in a nasty situation regards up to date IC ships. The real issue with the TOR and Pantshir-1 isn't chips. It is the software processing it's radar returns.
Soviet era electrical engineers wrote really tight tight code that maxed out their systems performance compared to Western code practices.
They had no choice and were well rewarded when they did.
An electronically scanned radar has the ability to track a small, slow drone's doppler shift returns with the right software code using older IC chips, _IF_ you have the right engineering talent.
That talent left Putin's Russia.
Whatever Russia's corrupt military procurement system did in that time with the Pantshir-1 radar software.
It didn't involved anyone competent, assuming anything was done, other than someone stealing the money.
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It has been clear for about 18 months that the Ukrainian military has put in the time to master and digest the materials in the US Strategic Bombing Surveys for lessons on how to take down an industrial economy.
The latest rail ferry strike is just the latest example.
USSBS🧵 1/
This was the "Biden vs Trump Debate moment" for USSS Director Cheatle.
In a situation as "1st shot at Fort Sumter" volatile as this, Cheatle needed to "Come to Jesus," be 100% truthful & offer a full mea culpa admitting to her follies.
Worse, both she and her superior DHS Secretary Mayorkas were very publicly caught out as lying on the most important facts regarding the lack of protection for former President Trump.
While I utterly despise @JDVance1 public statements on Ukraine...
...the collapse of the @JoeBiden candidacy reinforces his "Hillbilly Elegy" candidate brand at the expense of Democratic Party's negative campaigning with non-Democrats, and the working class generally.
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And @JDVance1 statements that the USA doesn't make the munitions or have a ship building infrastructure for a multi-front war...
Nor are there any plans to have such a mobilization supporting that logistical capability
The rate of increase of Russian ground force casualties tracks a collapse of skills from the attrition of competent Russian officers without a Russian training establishment capable of replacing them.
The "Next 100k" of Russian casualties always happens faster.
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It also tracks the collapse of the Russian army motor transport that is preventing both medical system casualty evacuation (CASEVAC) and the resupply of forward positions with food, water and medical supplies.
I've really happy with the AFU's increasingly effective drone counter-air efforts and the drone swarm strike Millerovo air base near Rostov-on-Don underlines this improvement.
ISO container fuel tanks can be shipped in via Iran and fix this damage in weeks.
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The ability to build fuel storage like lego bricks has been around since 1969, when the UK firm Andrews of Aintree Ltd fielded the concept through international transportation regulations.