Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 27, 2022 13 tweets 5 min read Read on X
This thread🧵will lay out the reasons I think the Russians blew the technological development necessary to deal with drone threats in Ukraine & elsewhere.

Like all really important problems, it starts with how badly you treat people...in this case, Russian engineers.👇
1/
Ukrainian media sources have noted a massive emigration of Russian STEM workers for at least 5-years.

There is a reason for this. Putin issued a decree stating that STEM workers were a "National Resource." AKA they could be taken as a state slave.

They took the hint.
2/
The bill for this came due in 2018.

In January 2018 there were DIY armed drone attacks on the Russian Khmeimim airbase & the Tartus, Syria naval base.

The drones drew on existing radio controlled aircraft technology. They had diesel engines,
3/ Image
...wood, plastic and Styrofoam construction, global positioning system guidance & aerometer altitude sensors.

The larger of the two DIY drones carried up to ten bomblets and had an estimated range of 100 KM.

Drone bomblets made using mortar fuses, 3D printed fins
4/ Image
and fuse mounting bodies with lots of plastic tape in between to hold it all together!

It wasn't like this was a surprise.

Armed DIY drones were literally a in the air reality for a couple of years at that time thanks to ISIS.

5/
defensenews.com/digital-show-d…
Yet this 'surprise' cost Russia oh so much more than the pin pricks ISIS was inflicting on US Forces.

The pictured Russian Su-24 pictured cost an estimated $50 million. It had to be returned by freighter to Russia to be rebuilt.

6/ Image
Media sources at the time placed the total damage at anywhere between three strike fighters to seven strike fighters & a Hind gunship.

Hinds were death on rotary wings in Syria.

medium.com/war-is-boring/…
7/
Drones costing maybe $100,000 put between $50 million to $400 million in high tech aircraft out of action for months. There are a -lot- of implications in those numbers.

I wrote a blog post on that attack and 23 others between Jan & Aug 2018 here:

chicagoboyz.net/archives/57931…
8/
Low slow aircraft with precision munitions have been a b--ch of an air defense problem for decades.

The loss of the battleship Bismarck was due in part because the ship's AA fire controls couldn't engage a 100 kt aerial target.

9/
And while Russia is in a nasty situation regards up to date IC ships. The real issue with the TOR and Pantshir-1 isn't chips. It is the software processing it's radar returns.

10/
Soviet era electrical engineers wrote really tight tight code that maxed out their systems performance compared to Western code practices.

They had no choice and were well rewarded when they did.
An electronically scanned radar has the ability to track a small, slow drone's doppler shift returns with the right software code using older IC chips, _IF_ you have the right engineering talent.
That talent left Putin's Russia.

Whatever Russia's corrupt military procurement system did in that time with the Pantshir-1 radar software.

It didn't involved anyone competent, assuming anything was done, other than someone stealing the money.

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More from @TrentTelenko

Jan 8
A lot of people have been spouting off that the failure of Air Defense in Venezuela means Chinese air defense is 💩.

Just...no. S-300's arrived in the Fall of 2025.

That isn't enough time to train competent operators, be they Cuban, Venezuelan, Russian or Chinese.
1/
Job training for a PATRIOT fire control enhanced operator requires 10 weeks of Basic Combat Training and 20 weeks of Advanced Individual Training with on-the-job instruction.

Russian S-300 are far worse than Patriot in terms of human interface & "plug and play" maintenance.
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They were literally designed to be operated by drafted Ukrainian university educated STEM students.

The Maduro regime didn't trust anyone from the Venezuelan middle class to operate the oil industry, let alone Russian and Chinese air defense equipment.

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Read 7 tweets
Jan 6
P.M. Frederiksen of Denmark has a selective memory.

I remember Greece and Turkey fighting over Cyprus not destroying NATO.

Like Cyprus, non-Danish NATO members w/o nukes simply won't go to war with the USA over Greenland...

...nor will nuclear armed NATO states.

1/3
This @vtchakarova suggestion would be the best possible outcome for Denmark. **

** This assumes Denmark's political elites have the wit to go there.



2/3
If P.M. Frederiksen of Denmark thinks NATO will save Greenland for Denmark.

Then Greenland as the USA's "Northern Cyprus issue" with Denmark inside of NATO is the most likely Thucydides-Esque power politics outcome.

3/3 Image
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Read 4 tweets
Jan 5
We need to talk about this report by General Davila of non-nuclear electromagnetic pulse or high-powered microwave weapons being used on Venezuelan air defenses.

1/
x.com/GeneralDavila/… x.com/TrentTelenko/s…Image
Air Power Australia has a very good article titled:

The Electromagnetic Bomb
- a Weapon of Electrical Mass Destruction

...on these "E-Bombs" with some US bomb form factor figures (below).

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E-bombs are built around a technology called "Explosively Pumped Flux Compression Generators" (FCG) which explosively crush electrically charged coils to generate huge pulses of electromagnetic energy rivaling nuclear EMP at close ranges.

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Read 11 tweets
Jan 3
Pres. Trump Buys Venezuela from Maduro's friends from under the noses of China, Iran, Russia and the MSM.

Cuba, Canada, and Congressional war powers most affected.

1/
See this for Canada's broken geo-political position.



2/
Read 10 tweets
Jan 3
Watching the Trump haters and Maga isolationists heads collectively explode like the final scene from the Kingsman has been a hoot.

Short form:

Trump bought the Maduro snatch with a traditional 19th century US imperialist "Gold or lead" offer.

1/
IOW, "Take the US bribe or die."

The Trump "bribe a regime change" plan has been going on for months.

The lack of leaks for the plan happened in part because the Pentagon put in place the non-disclosure rules...

2/
pbs.org/newshour/polit…
...that cause the Pentagon reporter walk out in October 2025.

The other reason for no leaks for this operation is Pres. Trump didn't tell either on the Armed Services or Intelligence committees about the mass bribery until after the snatch was in progress.

3/
Read 9 tweets
Dec 21, 2025
The following is evaluation is based on a number of professional discussions:

This CRPA found in a shot down jet Shaheed is reported to be Russian built. This is highly doubtful as the design and construction style looks far too professional for Russian industry.

1/
Bluntly - Russians tend towards cheapskate up-front capital manufacturing solutions.

The upshot is injection molded and die cast components are not a common feature in Russian designs as tooling for manufacturing designs is expensive up front,

2/
...even if the mass production unit costs are lower.

In addition, Western style SMA RF connectors are not a feature of the Soviet technology base.

Nor is the RF coax with a transparent jacket.

3/
Read 5 tweets

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