Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 27, 2022 13 tweets 5 min read Read on X
This thread🧵will lay out the reasons I think the Russians blew the technological development necessary to deal with drone threats in Ukraine & elsewhere.

Like all really important problems, it starts with how badly you treat people...in this case, Russian engineers.👇
1/
Ukrainian media sources have noted a massive emigration of Russian STEM workers for at least 5-years.

There is a reason for this. Putin issued a decree stating that STEM workers were a "National Resource." AKA they could be taken as a state slave.

They took the hint.
2/
The bill for this came due in 2018.

In January 2018 there were DIY armed drone attacks on the Russian Khmeimim airbase & the Tartus, Syria naval base.

The drones drew on existing radio controlled aircraft technology. They had diesel engines,
3/ Image
...wood, plastic and Styrofoam construction, global positioning system guidance & aerometer altitude sensors.

The larger of the two DIY drones carried up to ten bomblets and had an estimated range of 100 KM.

Drone bomblets made using mortar fuses, 3D printed fins
4/ Image
and fuse mounting bodies with lots of plastic tape in between to hold it all together!

It wasn't like this was a surprise.

Armed DIY drones were literally a in the air reality for a couple of years at that time thanks to ISIS.

5/
defensenews.com/digital-show-d…
Yet this 'surprise' cost Russia oh so much more than the pin pricks ISIS was inflicting on US Forces.

The pictured Russian Su-24 pictured cost an estimated $50 million. It had to be returned by freighter to Russia to be rebuilt.

6/ Image
Media sources at the time placed the total damage at anywhere between three strike fighters to seven strike fighters & a Hind gunship.

Hinds were death on rotary wings in Syria.

medium.com/war-is-boring/…
7/
Drones costing maybe $100,000 put between $50 million to $400 million in high tech aircraft out of action for months. There are a -lot- of implications in those numbers.

I wrote a blog post on that attack and 23 others between Jan & Aug 2018 here:

chicagoboyz.net/archives/57931…
8/
Low slow aircraft with precision munitions have been a b--ch of an air defense problem for decades.

The loss of the battleship Bismarck was due in part because the ship's AA fire controls couldn't engage a 100 kt aerial target.

9/
And while Russia is in a nasty situation regards up to date IC ships. The real issue with the TOR and Pantshir-1 isn't chips. It is the software processing it's radar returns.

10/
Soviet era electrical engineers wrote really tight tight code that maxed out their systems performance compared to Western code practices.

They had no choice and were well rewarded when they did.
An electronically scanned radar has the ability to track a small, slow drone's doppler shift returns with the right software code using older IC chips, _IF_ you have the right engineering talent.
That talent left Putin's Russia.

Whatever Russia's corrupt military procurement system did in that time with the Pantshir-1 radar software.

It didn't involved anyone competent, assuming anything was done, other than someone stealing the money.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Trent Telenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @TrentTelenko

Mar 5
Very, Very, few people understand the implications of this Israeli hack combined with its deep penetration of Iran's Regime means for the US-Israeli campaign to exterminate the Mullah's Regime Security Forces.

Let's talk about Gorgon's Stare & Post GWOT smart bombs🧵
1/ Image
Gorgon's Stare and its peer systems like ARGUS, Vigilant Stare, Constant Hawk and Agile Condor are Wide Area Aerial Surveillance (WAAS) systems, the all-seeing eye in the sky.

They are increasingly sophisticated mergers of multi-spectral cameras, computer data bases and more recently A.I.

2/
WAAS has had a rocky and politically charged history (See 2011 text below) but the data fusion technology has gotten to the point that more and more cameras can be networked together over larger areas with the data saved for later analysis.

Analysis which is improving via AI
3/ Image
Read 14 tweets
Mar 2
The crash of the Tanker maritime insurance market will force Gulf tanker escort operations.

Crashing maritime insurance was why 1988's "Operation Praying Mantis" happened.

The problem for China & the EU in 2026 is Gulf Oil no longer flows to the USA.

1/3 Image
The USA is an energy exporting nation now and it doesn't need Gulf oil.

The idea that a huge price spike with the US Economy is actually something Pres. Trump can affect via EXPORT Tariffs.

If domestic suppliers can't make money selling abroad...they won't.

2/3
This will spike oil prices outside the USA, but forcing China to pay the world rate for oil is in the USA's interests.

A 2026's "Operation Praying Mantis" will require Chinese and European Navy's doing the escort duties without the US fleet.

3/3.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 28
I don't doubt that Ukraine cyber hacked in Russian digital terrain elevation maps that the Russians compiled for themselves. Up to date digital terrain elevation maps are a good thing to have.

Plus NASA also had a huge archive of digital terrain elevation data.

1/
But the art of planning munition trajectories to use them is a separate and uniquely military skills set.

Ukraine has had four years of combat experience doing the task of planning munition trajectories.

2/
Which is why I called them out as replicating SMAC's capabilities.

Combat experience is 10 times the best simulations.

The Flamingo flies lower and much faster than most of the other deep strike assets the Ukrainians use, but it is also larger.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Feb 28
War with Iran has kicked off and both the Trump Adm. and Israel have gone for Iranian Regime change with oil export, leadership decapitation, air defense & Iranian missile site strikes.

Mullah Regime Change 🧵
1/
Reportedly:

"The U.S. strikes are focused on Iran’s missile program and missile launchers. The Israeli strikes are focused on eliminating senior Iranian officials and on the missile program"

2/
Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, Al-Salem Base in Kuwait, Al-Dhafra Air Base in the Emirates, and the US Fifth Fleet base in Bahrain were all reportedly hit by IRGC Ballistic missiles.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Feb 27
I was calling this out in 2023⬇️

"Preliminary reports suggest the UAV was likely launched from an Iranian naval vessel — a move that would significantly extend its operational range and time over target."

1/3
The threat of Iranian ISO container, or sea vessel, launched drones was plain three years ago

I got publicly hooted at by US Navy leadership aligned accounts on X for pointing out this "politically incorrect" reality.

2/3 Image
Image
Iran will be the gust front of the drone threat the US Navy faces.

China will empty the South China Sea of US naval vessels with drones in the first week of a war over Taiwan.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Feb 17
Drones are both a compliment and supplement all existing ground force combined arms weapons systems and do so at a lower cost.

For the last year to 18 months - and sources vary - three out of every four Ukrainian and Russian casualties are from drones.

Paradigm Shift 🧵

1/5
Artillery plus EVERY_OTHER_ weapons system on the Ukrainian battlefield does 1/4 of 2025-2026 drone casualties.

Such is the BLUF of the drone battlefield paradigm shift in terms of human blood.

2/5
This means the world has changed so radically that any US Army officer higher than Captain is negative value added on a drone battlefield because their professional military education is as obsolete 1930's US Horse cavalrymen Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures were in 1944.

3/5 Image
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(