Thread by @ColSanjayPande

#UkrainwRussiaWar A look at road network will give you an idea of how Russia has completely split Ukrainian Army. Ukraines is spread East to West more than North to South. Kiev lies to roughly in the centre hugging north boundary. To its south on Black Sea coast is Odessa.

Look at roads. Kiev to Odessa is a major Nortg-Soutg highway cutting across entire country. There are many laterals from East to West. Two easternmost provinces are pro Russian. To east of Kiev-Odessa north-south line lies over 60% of its border. Either this entire border is

Hostile or not defendable. So while Ukrainian Army can put 40% border west of Kiev-Odessa at low priority, but cannot vacate it, the 60% border must get 90% attention. Artillery-Infantry-Armoured are mainstay combat arms and must remain in contact with Russian Army hence

Will need to move up closest to 60% border as far ahead as possible. They have to deploy closer to roads and highways all of which are East-West aligned. This alignment is great for a defender and even greater for offensive forces. Can Ukrainian Army put equal amount of force

at each point of entry in Ukraine to stop Russia? Did they know where will Russia come from? How would they deploy in anticipation in Jan/Feb 2022? Did they know when will Russia attack? Did they even believe that Russia will attack? We’re they not convinced that NATO and US

will step in soon as Russia attacks? Can you imaging the mess in the minds of military leadership? In this foggy minds lay their dilemma. They could not hold back Army and wait. They could not deploy and commit. It was in this dilemma that their small army was deployed in Feb.

Artillery and Armoured cannot be lifted like toys and moved hundreds of kms. Infantry can but it is useless without Artillery and Armoured. What do they defend? Russia attacked the ENTIRE STRETCH of 60% border east of line Kiev to Odessa. It attacked Kiev, it attacked Odessa.

Ukraine had given up fighting conventional war within first few days of war. Russia opened so many fronts that the Artillery and Armoured had to be moved thereby exposing itself for precision destruction. Loss of Odessa makes Ukraine landlocked. Loss of Kiev and it loses war.

The Army dies what? Defend Kiev? Defend Odessa? Or defend 60% border? Army was not only split and disorganised but all larger formations of brigade and above ceased to exist. It came down to battalion level fighting from first week itself. The GHQ has become defunct. Army is

left with no choice but to fight a guerrilla type war based on man-pack anti air and anti tank missiles. Russia had a clear aim to make complete Ukraine Army defunct in seven days and at leisure destroy military targets and keep complete world attention focused to war while it

quietly went about it’s phase 2. Phase 2 was about breaking NATO and crushing US pride. While it’s Military kept world glued to TV, Russia dealt with each NATO country one-on-one. Each fell, were disciplined or threatened by second week.

Can you see through Russian military plan? It completely let western media hype take over and concentrate attention on war while it already had commenced phase 2. The west and NATO have been focusing on war from last 30 days while Russia has been selling its oil and gas, asking

For payments in Roubles, weakening dollar, creating new alliances, initiating change in world order and continuing with war on its own terms. I started this thread with the simple reference to Kiev-Odessa road. Can you see how geopolitics helps a country? Russian military is

very well trained in geopolitics is evident from the way their plan has unfolded. Most NATO military has been sent to gallery. Complete initiative is held by Russia since day 1 of war. I have studied this war very closely keeping geopolitics at the centre. Wars is fought by a

country as a ‘whole’ where military, bureaucrats, strategists and academia spend years ‘developing’ each other and not as it happens in India. We have a LOT TO LEARN. Jai Hind

#UkraineRussiaWar Understanding the war requires some simple logic to be put in place. This thread gives you power to analyse. Ukraine has 5600km of land border. Roughly 2060 km with Russia (38% plus), 975 km with Belarus (18% pro-Russia), 1200km (non-NATO) and 1400km with EU.

What does this mean? It simply means that it has online 1400km ‘friendly’ border which is 25% shared with Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. All Russia had to do as preparation for war was to deal one-on-one with these four countries. How much time did Russia have for it?

Russia had a decade plus. Moldova is one of the poorest countries and by constitution ‘neutral’. Does it have any interest in Ukraine? Another neighbour taken care of. That leaves Belarus. Russia is largest political & economic partner of Belarus. Another neighbour taken care of.

Now EU countries with 1400km border are on west. Who is left? Russia. 2063 km border with Ukraine geographically on opposite side to east. So? Count out any ground support from NATO. Land Forces are taken care of. Now read my previous tweets and for a moment become Zelensky.

Become Zelensky and read this thread. You don’t have to be from military or IFS or a strategist to understand state of Ukraine. This thread upto this tweet is nothing else but ‘geopolitics’. How much do you give Zelensky out of 10? Be honest.

If you were honest and you thought as Zelensky, what would you be thinking in Jan 2022? Feb 2022? Up to 23 Mar 2022? What were his Army Generals thinking? What was his Air Chief thinking? What was his (non-existent) Navy Chief thinking? Four top minds of Ukraine thinking of what?

Ukraine had lost the impending war even before it had started. It’s military formations were deployed over 2063 km of hostile border, 1000 km of likely hostile border and to defend the capital. The first bullet was yet to be fired. What was the activity going on in armed forces?

I will cover period from 01 Mar 2022 to 23 Mar 2022 inside Ukraine. You do not require spies to know it, common sense will do. The NATO & US propaganda was at best during these three weeks. Posturing was aggressive. Lot of military movement BUT all was restricted to own countries

Nothing crossed border and entered Ukraine. Nothing came from US to NATO countries. Entire military posturing was for visual effect. Do you think Russia was dumb not to know? With no foreign military movement within Ukraine, the Armed Forces had do react. Let us take one by one.

Ukraine Navy is practically non existent. So we stop discussing it. Ukraine Air Force with 80 odd mixed aircrafts were confined to their air bases, 100% under Russian surveillance. The network of radars would have been actively scanning skies 24X7. Granted. Anything else?

That brings us to Ukraine Army. 2063 km of hostile border to be guarded. An infantry battalion in defence can at best cover 4-5 km frontage. Leave same gap and another one is deployed. Say give 10 kms to a battalion, 2063 km? Assume it’s covered. 200 Battalions and zero reserve?

Everyone knows size of their army. Army is NOT only infantry. Artillery, Armoured, Air Defence, Signals, Engineers, Logistics and numerous headquarters. Imagine what would they have to defend. Peanuts. How many lines of defences could they have? Offensive formations? With each

word that I write, the army gets smaller while 2063 kms remains unchanged. Their army was spread, guarding likely thrust lines with weak or no reserves. Whether Russia will attack or not was still not known. First bullet was yet to be fired. Can you build an image in your mind?

You are capable to ‘read’ & ‘analyse’ the #UkraineRussiaWar In last 30-40 odd tweets is there anything motivated by western media? Russian feed? or Ukraine? What I have stated are sheer facts verifiable by all. With this basic information each one precisely knows state in Mar 22.

Understanding #UkraineRussiaWar Now recollect western propaganda, experts on TV, the Retired General Rommels of Indian Army who straightaway got in commenting on war, how Russia was loosing, one guy gave ‘Lessons Learnt’ on 10th day of war, another was busy selling manoeuvre war

attrition, pincer movements, recreating 2nd World War etc.. all I have done is simply putting facts in front of you and any person with normal intelligence and guidance knows what was Ukraines state in Mar 22 before war started. To recall, other than Ukraine radars nothing was

working. West was tracking Russian buildup but was keeping the actual figures hidden. Now let us ‘read’ Russian military minds. Trust me, right down to Bde and Div Commanders equivalent, every Commander knew Ukraine inside out, they knew Army deployment, air bases, radars, tank

concentrations, Artillery and air defence. Russia wasn’t twiddling thumbs while build up to war was taking place. Intelligence gathering from ground, sky and space would be at peak. With 100% information all that Russia needed was a date to commence operations.

Continuing… #UkraineRussiaWar All I have written so far is the state in Ukraine upto 23 Mar 2022 and no one in the world, except Putin, knew that they are launching offensive on 24 Mar 2022. Do you realise the state of preparedness of Russian Armed Forces? They were like a bow

fully stretched waiting to be released. NOW think about the Military Leadership of Ukraine and Russia. BOTH were completely consumed by ‘CONVENTIONAL WAR’. What is conventional war? If you don’t know what it is, how do you understand what is happening today?

We start with ‘WHAT’ is a ‘Conventional War’? In direct reference to #UkraineRussiaWar what did you think on 23 Feb 2022, a conventional war between Ukraine and Russia would be? What does a nation require to know if the war would be ‘conventional’? What would be the FIRST action?

The first action is to know enemy strength. Infantry Units, Armoured Regiments, Artillery, Aircrafts, Missiles, Electronic Warfare capability, Intelligence, Brigade level Formations, Divisional Level Formations, Tactics, Military War Games etc. This is collected over years.

So Ukraine and Russia would have known most details with extreme accuracy since years. Closer to Feb 2022, what other wants to know is ‘location’ of all active formations and reserves. HOWLER - Now think, will Russia or Ukraine ever part with information collected by them?

So who knows the exact strength? Who knows location? Will any journalist, expert, military veteran, media, newspaper or any one in public domain ever know? Not at all. How do you then trust the news flooding media or trust experts? Try this out, take random 10 independent

sources & make a table of the strength, equipment & formations of both armies and compare. Shouldn’t they be same? Why are they not? I read a tweet that claims Ukraine Army to be 6,00,000 and Russian Army 2,00,000 on Day-1 of war. Who told him? EVERYTHING depends on information.

The first premise of strength in itself must raise a serious question. Check background of person behind it. This is the ‘seed’ of bias. Whatever the narrative, play with numbers and write your ‘professional’ stuff. If an expert happens to be a retired General regardless of

nationality, he will try to impress his local audience only. Use excessive military jargon, write whatever will make him popular while basing complete logic on figures regarding strength that push narrative. Read western handles, European experts or even Indian retired Generals.

Can you trust anyone? Hence the best way is to learn basics and draw your conclusions. I will help you understand these wars. Be with me.