(Let's briefly admire what that volcanism looks like.) 🤩 🌋
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So what does a double-volcano region 1000 km away have to do with a 50 million year old volcano? Mantle plumes are long-lived, & the one below Iceland is no exception. Here, you can see the slower velocity rock (i.e. hotter) below Iceland today. 4/
The volcanoes are long dead - last erupted 40-70 million yrs ago - but the mountains they left behind persist. Erosion is slow under water! These higher deeper halves remained undetected until the last century. 6/
At the base of the seamounts is 2 km deep seafloor in pure darkness. Life clusters around these highs (reaching 500-600 m depth), taking advantage of the relative proximity of light. This is the "twilight" zone of the ocean. 7/
Expeditions to one of the volcanoes - the Anton Dohrn seamount - found coral gardens, starfish, barnacles, sponges, lobsters and eels. This life is supported by the nutrient-rich water flowing up the steep sides of the seamount. 8/
So excess heat in the mantle caused eruptions tens of millions of years ago that created the conditions for a hidden garden of corals today far from the volcanic source.
And some weird bumps on the seafloor, mapped in Google Earth but invisible to people. 9/
It's almost hard to remember a time before Google Earth - the tools & data available for free for anyone curious about the Earth far outpace even the best data scientists could access 20 years ago.
Although the paper is framed around "earthquake forecasting," it's a prediction paper. They use the word prediction in both the paper and the supplement.
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This was reviewed through BSSA, and is being promoted by SSA.
Earthquake prediction, if it were proved, would be a BIG DEAL. The bar for passing review should be very high.
The 2002 Molise earthquakes occurred within ~1 day of each other (Oct 31 and Nov 1). The first quake collapsed a school, killing half the children inside (26 of 51). At the time, the area was considered to have no seismic hazard.
The school was built with reinforced concrete, but the second floor was added later, and it is possible that this made the building more susceptible to collapse.
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Several people have asked me recently about whether we should expect a large earthquake on the Afrin fault, south of the Feb 6 rupture.
First: no one can predict earthquakes, so if anyone has told you they can, they are wrong.
But let's take a look anyway.
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First, what is the Afrin fault? The AFEAD dataset has a small fault listed under this name, running through the city of Kilis, Turkey. An extension of this fault is mapped near the city of Afrin, Syria.
These faults are part of the northern end of the Dead Sea Fault.
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You can explore these faults yourself. The dataset describes the "Afrin fault" as having a slip rate of <1 mm/yr - i.e., not really detectable. But the extensions are a bit faster, maybe up to 5 mm/yr. The Dead Sea Fault slips ~5 mm/yr.
Why did a M5 earthquake occur HERE yesterday, in what is apparently the middle of the African Plate?
Answer: It's not the middle of the African Plate, it's the East African Rift: the continent is pulling apart at a rate of ~1-5 mm/yr.
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Yesterday's earthquake was just the latest in a long series of earthquakes - and not the largest, either; there was a M6 in 2020 to the south.
The "rift" isn't a single fault, but many.
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Volcanoes are scattered along the rift, too. As the crust thins, deeper areas experience lower stress, allowing "decompression melting" - hot rocks kept in a solid state by pressure will melt if that pressure is released.
A M6 earthquake occurred a few hours ago offshore Japan. Due to its magnitude & distance from shore, it was not damaging, but the setting is interesting to explore.
This is a subduction zone: the Pacific Plate is subducting below the Okhotsk Plate at a rate of ~9 cm/yr. The Okhotsk Plate used to be considered part of the North American Plate (even though it's in Japan!) but it actually moves slightly differently.
This is a very active place, seismically speaking. Today's earthquake occurred on the subduction interface fault (called a "megathrust" - i.e. a really big thrust fault). That megathrust has hosted many large earthquakes, including...
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