This war is Russia’s ultimate reality check. Before this war, the Russians had certain beliefs about their country, identity. Before starting this war, Putin had certain assumptions about the Ukrainians, their country, and their army. All turned out wrong. #StopWarInUkraine 1 /
Russian war planners assumed Ukraine would be brought to its knees in days; they are now confronted with the reality of Ukraine’s fierce resistance; the reality of their own inaptitude; corruption, of being organizationally and psychologically unprepared for this war 2 /
A system, in which all officials are only accountable to their superiors, not the people, produces multiple layers of window-dressing. Any signal is completely distorted by the time it reaches the top. When he started his war, Putin was fully blind and deaf to reality. 3 /
For example, Putin operated at cross purposes with his own MOD, Shoigu. Putin wanted a war-ready army capable of invading a country the size of Ukraine. Apparently, he forgot to tell Shoigu about it. 4 /
Shoigu assumed it was all mostly for show. He has been pursuing a massive self-aggrandizement project, building a bizarre military cathedral, lining his cronies’ pockets, doing some work on the military, too, but clearly not enough. 5 /
In general, the Kremlin is now confronted with the reality of its dysfunctional political system that prevents Moscow from achieving its own objectives. 6 /
The harsh truth of Western sanctions is beginning to sink in. Sanctions rarely succeed in squeezing regimes, but they do have long-term effects on nations and their ability to flourish economically and technologically; sanctions fuel brain drain, cloud societies’ future. 7/
Russians believed they had a powerful state, a great culture, a secure place in the community of nations, and an identity based on waging a just war (WWII). The realities of an unjust, criminal war are now pushing them out of their (our) moral comfort zone. 8/
Most Russians, both pro- and anti-Putin, thought they were the proud descendants of those who led their country to victory in WWII. The Russians are now facing the reality of isolation, being seen as fully or partly responsible for the savage war waged on their behalf. 9/
In this war, the Russian state’s crimes, past and present, are laid bare: the Soviet/Russian state’s terror, occupations, deportations, brutal war methods. Will society in Russia be able to comprehend this and respond appropriately? 10
This war raises the question of whether or not Russian society exists at all. As I see it, the only option for Russian society to (re)constitute itself politically is to prosecute its own state and current leaders, who have brought Ukraine and Russia into this war. 11/
There will be an international trial, but it is up to Russian society to discover its own agency, make its own judgements, and disobey criminal orders. If that is possible, there is a future for Russia. Ends
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