Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

Returning to this peace deal thread as Pres Zelensky gave a very interesting interview to Russian media in which he touched explicitly or implicitly on all the key points (except reparations).

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1506957043365728256

Accepts some form of neutrality, though with security guarantees. So no NATO but (implicitly) no block on Ukraine joining EU.
Wants ceasefire and withdrawal to Feb 24 line.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1508342808435994630?s=20&t=U69MKI5nWymx6UGMU_wvBw

Big concession is that he is not demanding return of Crimea or Donetsk/Luhansk. He however would not accept any deal unless it was accepted by the Ukrainian legislature.

Does leave the notty question of reparations. How about something where the EU and US cover most of the costs, as part of bringing Ukraine into the EU?

Overall, this seems to me a pretty sensible deal that would end this war.

btw, there was nothing in Zelensky's interview discussing a Ukrainian acceptance of demilitarization, so that was (and should) be off the table for Ukraine. Ukrainian armed forces have shown themselves to be the greatest pillar of his bargaining position as it is.

Reparations issue causing some disagreement. Two things to consider. 1) Think of the EU/US doing something like the Marshall Plan for Ukraine. 2) If in paying, they set the stage for Ukraine to join the EU, thats a big win for stability which will pay large economic dividends

Some complaint also that this deal leaves Putin in power. If so, and Ukraine accepts it, that is a price that would have to be paid. Ukraine is the actor here and it will set its own terms. Non-combatants should accept that.

A take worth reading about why Russia needs to take the lead in De-Putinizing itself regardless. theguardian.com/commentisfree/…

Every time this is discussed, the same basic split emerges. One side says this peace is far too pro-Ukraine and Russia will never agree. The other says it makes far too many concessions to Russia and Ukraine should keep fighting.

The possible no to NATO yes to EU deal for Ukraine is getting more and more play. Know its not ideal but think its a very strong way forward for Ukraine and would provide some real security as well.

https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1508516408791076865?s=20&t=oUGc8npoloXomixQGEXEQw

Will add a little here about what I mean about security. If this kind of deal happens, a few things kick in. 1) if in the future Russia rebuilds its military and thinks about attacking Ukraine again, it will not be invading Ukraine, it will be invading the European Union.

That distinction matters (not only because the EU might have a greater security apparatus. The EU would either have to take extreme measures to defend Ukraine or the whole edifice falls apart. And the EU likes to save itself.

NATO can still work very closely to prepare the Ukrainian military--as it has only more so. Making any invasion even more difficult to consider.

Finally, Ukraine could have other, better security relationships with third party countries.