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Ray Dalio

@RayDalio

Mar 30

There is now a lot of talk about how the world order is changing but not much perspective on why and how and not much measurement of its changes. (1/6)

I want to share that with you because I believe that how the world order is changing will be the biggest influence on our collective well-being in the years ahead. (2/6)

I’m doing that in my book, Principles for Dealing with The Changing World Order, amazon.com/Changing-World… (3/6)

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Ray Dalio

@RayDalio

Mar 26

Learning must come before deciding. Your brain stores different types of learning in your subconscious, your rote memory bank, and your habits. (1/7)

But no matter how you acquire your knowledge or where you store it, what’s most important is that what you know paints a true and rich picture of the realities that will affect your decision. (2/7)

That’s why it always pays to be radically open-minded and seek out believable others as you do your learning. Many people have emotional trouble doing this and block the learning that could help them make better decisions. (3/7)

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Ray Dalio

@RayDalio

Mar 25

I want to elaborate on the common tactics used when economic and capital tools are weaponized. They have been and still are:

1. Asset freezes/seizures: Preventing an enemy/rival from using or selling foreign assets they rely on. (1/8)

These measures can range from asset freezes for targeted groups in a country (e.g., the current US sanctions of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard or the initial US asset freeze against Japan in World War II) to more severe measures like unilateral debt repudiation or (2/8)

outright seizures of a country’s assets (e.g., some top US policy makers have been talking about not paying our debts to China). (3/8)

Read 8 tweets

Ray Dalio

@RayDalio

Mar 24

Seek the advice of the most believable people you can find. If you don't know how to judge who the most believable people are, seek the advice of others about how to do that, such as people who have already chosen such believable people. (1/6)

By questioning experts individually and encouraging them to have thoughtful disagreement with each other that I can listen to and ask questions about, I both raise my probability of being right and become much better educated. (2/6)

This is most true when the experts disagree with me or with each other. Smart people who can thoughtfully disagree are the greatest teachers, far better than a professor assigned to stand in front of a board and lecture at you. (3/6)

Read 6 tweets

Ray Dalio

@RayDalio

Mar 23

I often observe people making decisions if their odds of being right are greater than 50 percent. (1/5)

What they fail to see is how much better off they'd be if they raised their chances even more (you can almost always improve your odds of being right by doing things that will give you more information). (2/5)

The expected value gain from raising the probability of being right from 51 percent to 85 percent (i.e., by 34 percentage points) is seventeen times more than raising the odds of being right from 49 percent (which is probably wrong) (3/5)

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Ray Dalio

@RayDalio

Mar 17

These competitions or wars reward the winners and penalize the losers, which reinforce their strengthenings or their weakenings. They vary in severity from healthy competitions to all-out wars. (1/4)

The progression tends to be from the first one on the list (trade/economic wars) toward the last one on the list (military wars), with each growing in intensity. Then, when a military hot war begins, all four of the other types of wars are applied full-on and weaponized. (2/4)

For these reasons, by monitoring the progression and intensities of the conflicts one can pretty well anticipate what is likely to come next. (3/4)

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