Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 28 4 tweets 21 min read
@All_Source_News @ColbyBadhwar @_log_scale_ @AnselLindner @gladstein @raw_avocado @Comm_Morino @zndtoshi @The_IntelHub @Osinttechnical @jon96179496 @air_intel @TheOsintBunker @sentdefender @TheOsintJournal @YAmzallagh @Felix_Nuno @RealCynicalFox @SpencerGuard @SP1AUTOINJECT @int_osic @OSINTEng @ohsendit @OSINT_Canada Cause & effect chains are not that hard.

They teach them to DoD quality inspectors & auditors to protect the public from defense contractor fraud, waste & abuse.

The idea is to know organizational behavior templates and their proxies.

1/
@All_Source_News @ColbyBadhwar @_log_scale_ @AnselLindner @gladstein @raw_avocado @Comm_Morino @zndtoshi @The_IntelHub @Osinttechnical @jon96179496 @air_intel @TheOsintBunker @sentdefender @TheOsintJournal @YAmzallagh @Felix_Nuno @RealCynicalFox @SpencerGuard @SP1AUTOINJECT @int_osic @OSINTEng @ohsendit @OSINT_Canada The most important behavior template is "corruption cannot be centralized."

AKA, If you see a corrupt practice. There will be more.

Proxies are harder to explain, but there is a public health inspection one that Marvin Zimler of ABC 13 Eyewitness News Houston made popular
2/
@All_Source_News @ColbyBadhwar @_log_scale_ @AnselLindner @gladstein @raw_avocado @Comm_Morino @zndtoshi @The_IntelHub @Osinttechnical @jon96179496 @air_intel @TheOsintBunker @sentdefender @TheOsintJournal @YAmzallagh @Felix_Nuno @RealCynicalFox @SpencerGuard @SP1AUTOINJECT @int_osic @OSINTEng @ohsendit @OSINT_Canada The ripped apart truck tires on that $13 million dollar Russian Pantsir air defense platform was the "Slime in the ice machine" proxy for hollowed out maintenance on Russian truck tires.

4/End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Mar 30
This marks the beginning of a deluge of CYA as the 3-letter agencies in Wash. DC attempt to absolve themselves of the guilt for a fubar of epic proportions that left Pres. Biden dangling in the breeze politically and likely enabled this war.
1/
edition.cnn.com/europe/live-ne…
Ukraine has been an intelligence screw up of Pearl Harbor or 9/11/2001 class, and not just for Ukraine & Russia.

One of the things I've pounded upon is how per blind Western intelligence has been to extremely important labor productivity tools used in NATO militaries and

2/
that were utterly unknown in the Russian.

Pallets, containers, forklifts, cranes and the entire infrastructural suite that goes with them on vehicles and buildings just passed by three generations of western intelligence analysts.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Mar 27
This thread🧵will lay out the reasons I think the Russians blew the technological development necessary to deal with drone threats in Ukraine & elsewhere.

Like all really important problems, it starts with how badly you treat people...in this case, Russian engineers.👇
1/
Ukrainian media sources have noted a massive emigration of Russian STEM workers for at least 5-years.

There is a reason for this. Putin issued a decree stating that STEM workers were a "National Resource." AKA they could be taken as a state slave.

They took the hint.
2/
The bill for this came due in 2018.

In January 2018 there were DIY armed drone attacks on the Russian Khmeimim airbase & the Tartus, Syria naval base.

The drones drew on existing radio controlled aircraft technology. They had diesel engines,
3/
Read 13 tweets
Mar 27
@robertgibbins14 >>Your logistics insights were extraordinary during this war.

It is less a matter of "being extraordinary" than simple experience.

The "common knowledge" of how military logistics really worked has faded with the end of draft armies in the West.

This 'null experience'
1/
@robertgibbins14 ...with how military logistics really works is why civilian intelligence analysts simply cannot get this stuff correct in this latest Russian Invasion of Ukraine.

As for Russian logistics, The Ukrainians have counter attacked and reached the Russian border at Trostianets.

2/
@robertgibbins14 That wouldn't have happened if Russian logistics were working.

The Ukrainians are doing slow, low casualty for them, counterattacks taking the maximum advantage of standoff munitions and drones to take back their territory

3/
Read 5 tweets
Mar 27
These were the sorts of 'logistical things' I had expected to be seeing in some form from the Russians in Ukraine, & haven't.🧵

Pallet capable trucks are the Swiss Army knife/lego set of modern logistics.

China has pallet trucks in their economy & military logistics.
1/
We have seen such trucks help to build China's COVID-19 isolation hospitals.

It is this focus on modern industrial & logistical productivity by the CCP over the last 40 years which makes China the emerging superpower that it is today.

2/
This Western national security analytical failure to see the implications of this lack industrial & logistical productivity in Russia & its presence in China is one of the more troubling outcomes of the invasion of Ukraine.

3/
Read 4 tweets
Mar 26
If you want to understand why Russian missiles are not always able to kill Ukrainian drones, this map is a very good start in understanding why.🧵

If your radio energy direction finding gear locates an enemy radar accurately. Good digital terrain maps can predict where
1/
...the radar can see and where it cannot.

Then a drone or missile can be "evasively routed" through radar coverage to strike a target.

I've talked about this before on Twitter.

2/
The best people in the world at making evasive radar routing for drones and missiles in the world are the USAF officers and airmen at the Stand-off Munitions Activity Center (SMAC) at Barksdale AFB.

3/
8af.af.mil/Units/Standoff…
Read 11 tweets
Mar 24
@GRomePow 21 * 500= 10,500 missiles.

The US has only produced 45,000 Javelins since production began in the 1990's for all customers world wide.

It is 2022. The oldest stocks are over 20 years old and the US has a robust testing program randomly selecting missiles out of each production
@GRomePow lot.

Missile solid fuel engines age out at 10 years and require a careful depot level engine replacement plus electronics refresh.

The US does this as a matter of course, Congressional budget permitting, but most FMS customers do not.

2/
@GRomePow At most, 30,000 of that 45,000 are available somewhere in the world with about half being both in possession to the US military and available as warshot.

The US Army will not drain stocks from Indo-Pacific units, 18th Airborne Corps or the Stryker brigades.

That leaves the
3/
Read 4 tweets

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