Thread by @Kasparov63

Concern about Biden's statement about Putin not remaining in power is overblown. The real worry is his admin is not clear on what it hopes to achieve in supporting Ukraine. Without US leadership, the EU, NATO, and the rest will lose their nerve at the first opportunity. 1/13

Ambiguity is tactically useful, strategically disastrous. If a dictator is uncertain of your commitment and your goals, the chance of catastrophe rises. If you backtrack on simple statements, what else might you backtrack on? Sanctions? Treaty obligations? 2/13

Supporting Ukraine 100%, as Biden says he does, means giving them what they need and doing what needs to be done to enable Ukraine to win this war, not simply survive until Putin consolidates his occupation grip, commits more war crimes, & reloads for next time. 3/13

Putin cannot be confident he will win, but he assumes he can take a draw at any time, that the West will pressure Ukraine to accept his terms, as they have so many times before. They always want to talk. They always want his gas & oil, to offer sanctions relief. 4/13

Nations supporting Ukraine are giving comfort to Putin and conceding leverage by failing to state their aims. Is Ukraine to be free, intact & independent? So say sanctions are permanent and will increase as long as Ukrainian territory is occupied, including Crimea. 5/13

Is the West going to isolate war criminal Putin for bombing cities full of civilians into the ground, killing tens of thousands? Or is he still welcome at the table for the Iran deal, to sell energy, to negotiate for the country he has taken hostage? 6/13

Putin will see no reason to cease this destruction as long as his power in Russia is not threatened. He must feel that pressure to affect his decision-making. A decade of being diplomatic & failing to listen to Putin's own words is how we got to this tragic point. 7/13

It's not what Putin does when cornered that is worrying, it's what he does when he feels immune, when he is sure consequences can be avoided or weakened. It's a contagious feeling that runs down through his command structure in the military. Shake that confidence. 8/13

Dictators operate on fear. Putin has always appealed to the "everyone is afraid of us again" nostalgia element in Russia. Worse, he now believes it and the rest of the world has gone along instead of standing up to him. Shouldn't he be afraid instead? 9/13

Take away Putin's safety nets. He, his generals and commanders, his mafia, and ordinary Russians have to envision the end of Putin's rule. It should be clear to any admiral who fires WMD that they will die. His oligarchs must know they will never leave Russia. 10/13

Companies and nations still doing business with Putin's rogue state cannot have it both ways. That time is over, at long last. It is a time to pick a side. Those who do not renounce Putin & Russia are not diplomats, they are corrupt cowards. 11/13

This war will shape the world's direction for a generation and beyond, for good or ill. This is a fight for the values the free world supposedly holds dear. We need moral and strategic unity and clarity, not backtracking. 12/13

Ukraine needs weapons to win, not words of support and a partition stalemate. Ukraine deserves to know we are doing everything we can, not everything that Putin allows. Ukraine deserves to be whole, to be free, and to achieve victory. Glory to Ukraine. 13/13