The 10y/2y curve is now less than 7 basis points away from inverting 
71% probability of a 50 bps hike in May
21% probability of a 75 bps hike in June (red bolded)
10 rate hikes in 2022
21% probability of a 75 bps hike in June (red bolded)
10 rate hikes in 2022
The Fed hiked 75 the Nov 14, 1994, FOMC meeting. It has precedent.
This cycle has worked in the following manner:
* The market first begins to price in a hike, but the odds remain below 50% – everyone laughs
* The odds of a hike rise to 50% – everyone forecasts it won’t happen
This cycle has worked in the following manner:
* The market first begins to price in a hike, but the odds remain below 50% – everyone laughs
* The odds of a hike rise to 50% – everyone forecasts it won’t happen
* The odds rise to somewhere around 66% – everyone starts to wonder
* The odds rise to 75% to 80% – Goldman forecasts it and everyone else on Wall Street follows suit
Are we at the “everyone laughs” phase of a 75-basis point hike? Will the rest of the cycle follow by June?
* The odds rise to 75% to 80% – Goldman forecasts it and everyone else on Wall Street follows suit
Are we at the “everyone laughs” phase of a 75-basis point hike? Will the rest of the cycle follow by June?
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