Short summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 29):
- 🇷🇺 forces are advancing in Donbas & in Mariupol
- 🇷🇺 operations remain stalled on all other fronts
- 🇷🇺 is deploying reinforcements around Kyiv
- 🇺🇦 successfully counterattacked in North (Irpin)
map: @War_Mapper
- 🇷🇺 forces are advancing in Donbas & in Mariupol
- 🇷🇺 operations remain stalled on all other fronts
- 🇷🇺 is deploying reinforcements around Kyiv
- 🇺🇦 successfully counterattacked in North (Irpin)
map: @War_Mapper
Frontlines across the country are solidifying:
-🇺🇦 forces are launching counterattacks to disrupt 🇷🇺 forces regrouping/digging in.
- the 2 most critical spots for 🇺🇦 forces remain the cities of Izium in east & Mariupol in southeast.
maps: @Militarylandnet
-🇺🇦 forces are launching counterattacks to disrupt 🇷🇺 forces regrouping/digging in.
- the 2 most critical spots for 🇺🇦 forces remain the cities of Izium in east & Mariupol in southeast.
maps: @Militarylandnet
Donbas:
- heavy fighting reported in past 24hrs
- 🇷🇺 forces are still trying to take Popasna, Rubizhne
Severodonetsk, and Krasnohorivka.
-🇷🇺 are making slow progress in those objectives amidst regrouping (some reports of reinforcements)
- Don't expect any rapid 🇷🇺 advances.
- heavy fighting reported in past 24hrs
- 🇷🇺 forces are still trying to take Popasna, Rubizhne
Severodonetsk, and Krasnohorivka.
-🇷🇺 are making slow progress in those objectives amidst regrouping (some reports of reinforcements)
- Don't expect any rapid 🇷🇺 advances.
North:
- 🇺🇦 forces reportedly pushed back 🇷🇺 forces in northwest (Irpin)/northeast (Rudnytske)
-🇷🇺 forces have dug/assumed defensive positions with reinforcements arriving.
- unclear when/whether 🇺🇦 forces will be able to take Bucha & Hostomel in coming days
map: @JominiW
- 🇺🇦 forces reportedly pushed back 🇷🇺 forces in northwest (Irpin)/northeast (Rudnytske)
-🇷🇺 forces have dug/assumed defensive positions with reinforcements arriving.
- unclear when/whether 🇺🇦 forces will be able to take Bucha & Hostomel in coming days
map: @JominiW
North:
- forward-deployed 🇷🇺units are pulling back to defensive lines
- 🇺🇦 forces are trying to disrupt 🇷🇺 forces regrouping/withdrawing
- unclear whether 🇷🇺 intends to continue encirclement of Kyiv (unlikely) or merely fix 🇺🇦 Ukrainian forces there
- forward-deployed 🇷🇺units are pulling back to defensive lines
- 🇺🇦 forces are trying to disrupt 🇷🇺 forces regrouping/withdrawing
- unclear whether 🇷🇺 intends to continue encirclement of Kyiv (unlikely) or merely fix 🇺🇦 Ukrainian forces there
As 🇷🇺 forces are assuming defensive positions, expect more use of heavy fires across the board in this phase of the war.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1508490645538807812?s=20&t=4vJFdGnL6MtHldIGOzeVcw
- 🇷🇺 forces around Chernihiv are focusing on establishing defensive positions/continue to shell the city; no major 🇷🇺offensive operations around Sumy (there are reports of units being withdrawn and redeployed to other areas)
https://twitter.com/niktwick/status/1508490884794441728?s=20&t=4vJFdGnL6MtHldIGOzeVcw
This by @DefenceHQ sums up the broad situation quite well AFAIK.
2 more points:
- tempo of 🇷🇺 operations has slowed down except in Donbas and inside Mariupol.
-this could be an indication for a new military buildup & another large-scale offensive in middle/end of April
2 more points:
- tempo of 🇷🇺 operations has slowed down except in Donbas and inside Mariupol.
-this could be an indication for a new military buildup & another large-scale offensive in middle/end of April
Estimates 👇
🇷🇺 major equipment losses: - 2019, of which: destroyed: 1004, damaged: 38, abandoned: 232, captured: 745
🇺🇦 major equipment losses: - 574, of which: destroyed: 225, damaged: 16, abandoned: 37, captured: 296
oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack…
🇷🇺 major equipment losses: - 2019, of which: destroyed: 1004, damaged: 38, abandoned: 232, captured: 745
🇺🇦 major equipment losses: - 574, of which: destroyed: 225, damaged: 16, abandoned: 37, captured: 296
oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack…
General observations:
-I think we may have to adjust some of our estimates of combat effectiveness on both sides of this conflict at this stage.
- Neither 🇷🇺 nor 🇺🇦 forces appear on the brink of collapse or victory.
-Neither side appears proficient in combined arms ops.
-I think we may have to adjust some of our estimates of combat effectiveness on both sides of this conflict at this stage.
- Neither 🇷🇺 nor 🇺🇦 forces appear on the brink of collapse or victory.
-Neither side appears proficient in combined arms ops.
-🇺🇦 ops largely consisted of small-scale raids/counterattacks and fairly static defensive actions (especially at outset of conflict).
-the fact that 🇺🇦 forces are only making small advances if at all when meeting stiff Russian resistance is perhaps indicative that forces...
-the fact that 🇺🇦 forces are only making small advances if at all when meeting stiff Russian resistance is perhaps indicative that forces...
...are more evenly matched than media portrayals make it out to be.
- Indeed, 🇷🇺 have been quite successful when on the defense in recent days.
-Question is whether some 🇺🇦 successes (def. not all) in recent days have more to do with 🇷🇺 forces consolidating their gains...
- Indeed, 🇷🇺 have been quite successful when on the defense in recent days.
-Question is whether some 🇺🇦 successes (def. not all) in recent days have more to do with 🇷🇺 forces consolidating their gains...
...and tactical withdrawals than 🇺🇦 tactical finesse (certainly true in some aspects including operations at night)
- The fog of war still applies of course.
Bottom line:
- All of this points to a prolonged war of attrition (unless a political settlement can be reached.)
- The fog of war still applies of course.
Bottom line:
- All of this points to a prolonged war of attrition (unless a political settlement can be reached.)
Addendum I: tactical withdrawals or major change in 🇷🇺force posture in 🇺🇦? Let's wait and see.
For what it's worth, 🇷🇺needs to keep some presence up North to fix Ukrainian forces and prevent them from getting redeployed South and East.
For what it's worth, 🇷🇺needs to keep some presence up North to fix Ukrainian forces and prevent them from getting redeployed South and East.
https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1508787161021227012?s=20&t=-C_Sb4iql2ivDfKLso7zVg
Addendum II: 🇷🇺 forces have been conducting tactical withdrawals in Sumy Oblast. Good video reportage by @derspiegel (in German) 👇
https://twitter.com/mathieuvonrohr/status/1508772092153679882?s=20&t=-xMXw7K5rVr_HpcUuC4QyQ
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