Thread by @stilgherrian

START OF BUDGET NIGHT THREAD. I’m not sure how much I’ll dig into this stuff tonight, but I will at least download good ol’ Budget Paper No. 2 and see what leaps out at me. I may also link to some analysis that speaks to my interests. Like the voices in my head. #Budget2022

Pro Tip: You don’t have to listen to Josh Frydenberg drone his way through the speech. You can just grab the text once all the papers go live at budget.gov.au at 1930 AEDT. Or skip the speech entirely and go straight to the documents. #Budget2022

And here we go. There’s the bullet points on the front page. budget.gov.au #Budget2022

Should you be keen, here’s the text of the speech. ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/josh… #Budget2022

I did tweet this earlier. I daresay I’ll find some more details (hah!) as I go through the papers. #Budget2022

https://twitter.com/stilgherrian/status/1508692008076189697

“Budget Paper No. 2” is where most of the detail\ lives. It’s a series of diffs, basically, presented as changes since the last statement, the MYEFO six months back or whenever it was. budget.gov.au/2022-23/conten… #Budget2022

It’s important to remember what strange technical terms like “NSW” and “QLD” mean lol. #Budget2022

I’ll mostly post about Budget items I’m familiar with, the stuff I generally write about, but if something piques my interest I’ll mention that too. #Budget2022

Here’s a new euphemism for a cut. “The Government will re-profile existing funding...” OK, it’s under $8 million in a $100 million projects, but they’re still numbers with a minus sign in front of them for the Indigenous Home Ownership Program Extension. #Budget2022

Here’s the detail on the 50% temporary reduction in fuel excise, which starts one minute past midnight tonight and goes for six months. #Budget2022

Here’s another great sentence. “This measure is estimated to result in an unquantifiable impact on receipts over the forward estimates period.” #Budget2022

“Modernisation of pay as you go (PAYG) instalment systems”? Direct link from accounting software to ATO to adjust PAYG rates automatically. #Budget2022

“Subject to advice from software provider... it is anticipated that systems will be in place by 31 December 2023.” Lol.

Small businesses (see conditions) can deduct 120% of the cost of digital transformation, if I may paraphrase. That’s estimated to cost about $1 billion in lost tax revenue all up. #Budget2022

I’ll skip the rest of the tax stuff because I don’t understand it. #Budget2022

Here is a title which I shall just leave here. #Budget2022

Office of the Australian Information Commissioner gets around $8 million a year extra for the next two years. Is that even enough to cover the new regulatory roles? I see no reduction in the backlog of Freedom of Information work. #Budget2022

Defence loses another $6.7 million to the investigation of war crimes. #Budget2022

There’s some stuff in there to cover the costs so fat this financial year of flood response from Defence and also support for Ukraine. Page 70, if you’re following along at home. #Budget2022

The $4.3 billion for “Large Vessel Infrastructure and Submarine Basing” announced with such fanfare the other day “will be met from within the existing resources of the Department of Defence”, so not new money. #Budget2022

AND HERE’S THE CYBER STUFF IT IS CALLED REDSPICE! #Budget2022

Reminder: $9.9 billion over 10 years is vapourware, because Budget papers only look ahead five years top and ten years is three election cycles.

But... but... REDSPICE!

That’s “$9.9 billion over 10 years to 2030-31 to the Australian Signals Directorate (ASD) to deliver a Resilience, Effects, Defence, Space, Intelligence, Cyber and Enablers package (REDSPICE).” #Budget2022

R E D S P I C E ! #Budget2022

There’s a bunch of detail on education, health, aged care, stuff like that which I’ll skip over because others will be looking at that in more detail. #Budget2022

“The Government will provide $69.0 million over 2 years from 2021-22 for the Japanese Encephalitis Virus National Plan.” #Budget2022

“Prioritising Mental Health,” it says here. $99 million in the coming financial year, or around $3.30 per Australian. quite a bit of detail starting on page 208. #Budget2022

“Rugby World Cup 2027 (men’s) and Rugby World Cup 2029 (women’s),” TBA. #Budget2022

An extra $136.7 million in 2022-23 for Operation Sovereign Borders. #Budget2022

Another $50 million for the Safer Communities Fund, the one that Peter Dutton enjoyed so much. #Budget2022

Various extra stuff for counterterrorism and investigating organised crime etc, which I’ll look at in more detail later. Starts page 119. #Budget2022

We have a Critical Minerals Strategy, apparently. #Budget2022

“Support for the Australian Space Industry,” which I’ll go though another time. #Budget2022

Reminder: These numbers are always what is in addition to what was in the Budget last time, and which wasn’t in the MYEFO. And “nfp” is “not for publications”.

“Civil Aviation Safety Authority – Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems,” which is to say, drones. #Budget2022

“Additional cost recovery for commercial and recreational RPAS has been deferred to 1 July 2023 to encourage further development and adoption of RPAS technology.”

“$1.3 billion over 6 years from 2021-22 to improve regional telecommunications” #Budget2022

Lots of priority infrastructure projects listed starting on page 135. You can go through them yourselves. #Budget2022

And... Parliament House will get “enhancements to the CCTV network, upgraded screening equipment and an expanded Parliamentary Security Operations Room”. #Budget2022

So that’s my initial skim through “Budget Paper No. 2” budget.gov.au/2022-23/conten… Obviously I left out a LOT of things that most of you care about but, as I say, other people do that. #Budget2022

Now a drink and then a look at what people in the lockup have written.

OK, I’m tweeting this one solely for the headline.

“The Tinkerbell budget: Clap if you believe it makes sense” by @PeterHartcherAO smh.com.au/politics/feder… #Budget2022

“Australia’s 2022 federal budget: what we found in the fine print” from the Graun. theguardian.com/australia-news… #Budget2022

GROWLERS! (That’s a thingy what holds 1.89 to 2 litres of beer. The first figure is 64 fluid ounces for The America.) #Budget2022

https://twitter.com/NickEvershed/status/1508744135087337478

“All the tech in the 2022 federal budget” by @justinrhendry itnews.com.au/news/all-the-t… #Budget2022

@justinrhendry Clearly Justin was in the lockup, so he’s got a bunch of stories. itnews.com.au/tag/budget2022 #Budget2022

An interesting observation. #Budget2022

https://twitter.com/TonyHWindsor/status/1508751561581015041

Arts was one of the areas I’d skipped over because I knew others would look. Nick has looked. #Budget2022

https://twitter.com/NickFeik/status/1508748641959559168

“Australian Budget 2022 delivers AU$9.9 billion for spicy cyber” by @campbell_kwan zdnet.com/article/austra… #Budget2022

Goodness me! (HT TechAU.) #Budget2022

“Federal budget 2022: six graphs that reveal the sugar-hit election strategy” by @GrogsGamut theguardian.com/australia-news… #Budget2022

This is my favourite, the perennial “Oh yeah wages will be rising” but they never do.

Big shoutout to the cybersecurity company who managed to send out a press release commenting on the $9.9 billion for cyber at 8.34pm with completely generic waffle about the need for strong passwords and “multiple lines of defence”. #Budget2022

CORRECTION: A “data flub” — that’s a technical term — in the graph I posted. Here’s the correct version. #Budget2022

https://twitter.com/GrogsGamut/status/1508757389612228608

Well spotted, Hugh. Though I’d phrase it as “The Budget hopes for” rather than as “Treasury forecasts”. #Budget2022

https://twitter.com/hughriminton/status/1508762911975436289

My attention has been drawn to the middle of the five icons. Is it just me, or...? #Budget2022

Earlier I said the place for the initial detail is “Budget Paper No. 2”. If you want to drill down further you need to go to the Portfolio Budget Statements, which in theory should all be online by now. budget.gov.au/2022-23/conten… #Budget2022

So, looking at this question of whether the extra finding for the Office of the Information Commissioner might sort of Freedom of Information appeals... let’s go to the relevant paper. ag.gov.au/system/files/2… (PDF) #Budget2022

https://twitter.com/jpwarren/status/1508751815952973833

The extra funding means they get a whole 9 new staff members to handle all of these functions. #Budget2022

But look at this. Performance targets are not being met, even these rather generous KPIs of resolving 80% of matters within a YEAR. #Budget2022

Now, some basic maths. If you want to NOT have a 12-month backlog, you need to do a full year’s worth of work on top of what you’re already doing to clear it. If you want to do that in one year, you need double the resources. But this is only a 6% increase... #Budget2022

A 6% increase in resources means that it would take at least 16 years to clear the backlog. That assumes no increase in workload coming in at the front end, but we already know that the OAIC is getting some new responsibilities. Plus the population is growing. #Budget2022

So, as usual, a few percentage points here and there is just faffing about at the edges. Same as with giving pensioners a couple of dollars a week. It’s a rounding error and basically makes no difference. Significant change requires significant investment. #Budget2022

Specifically, for OAIC and its FoI and privacy work, the message is clear: The government has no intention of improving things for at least a decade. But with a current budget of less than $30 million, doubling that is back of the couch money. #Budget2022

Putting it another way, and factoring in the need for recruitment and training, the government could clear the OAIC’s backlog of FoI and privacy cases and keep it cleared forever for under $2 per adult Australian per year. #Budget2022

On a related note, may I recommend “Morrison’s economic lies” by @rdns_tai. thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/… #Budget2022

I did a Budget thread last night. It starts here, and I’ve also compiled it at threadreaderapp.com/thread/1508715…. #Budget2022

https://twitter.com/stilgherrian/status/1508715415371128836

Enjoying @roweafr’s portrait of the Treasurer. And yes, I will add some more bits and pieces to this thread today as I discover things. But it won’t be my main focus. #Budget2022

Lol. #Budget2022

https://twitter.com/Rob_Stott/status/1508924991479631872

It’s going to be one of those days. #Budget2022

https://twitter.com/joshgnosis/status/1508930407110418434

“Australia may not be able to fill Coalition’s 1,900 proposed cyber jobs” by @campbell_kwan zdnet.com/article/austra… #Budget2022

“RMIT cybersecurity expert said Australia’s cyber skills shortage could lead to the cyber jobs announced in last night’s Budget being unfilled.”

IMPORTANT CORRECTION REGARDING THIS PART OF THE THREAD: Let me clarify how “Budget Paper No. 2” works. It’s a set of diffs, to use a programmer’s term. It’s the difference between what was said last time and the news plan. So... #Budget2022

https://twitter.com/stilgherrian/status/1508768695681970177

The Mid-Year Financial and Economic Outlook (MYEFO) in October had set in place a big REDUCTION in funding for the Office of the Australian Information Commissioners in coming years. innovationaus.com/privacy-office… #Budget2022

The excuse, sorry, reason was that there is meant to be a new Privacy Act coming and privacy stuff will be peeled off to separate thingy. But of course that Privacy Act review is still in progress because the government can’t walk and chew gum at the same time. #Budget2022

So when you see something like this in “Budget Paper No. 2”, a bump of about $8 million per year for two years, it actually means that the planned cut will be $8 million less than previously planned. Not that there’s a budget increase. #Budget2022

https://twitter.com/stilgherrian/status/1508769398861213697

Just think of it as chocolate rations and everything will make sense. #Budget2022

The Budget papers do include the full income and expenditure statements where this can be seen. “Budget Paper No. 2” is titled “Budget Measures” because it’s the things that are changing from the previous Budget or MYEFO. #Budget2022

None of this invalidates my analysis of the backlog of FoI and Privacy work. I just wanted to correct the impression I gave that OAIC is “getting more money” #Budget2022

https://twitter.com/stilgherrian/status/1508770505104687107

I should also mention that last night’s comments on this were a first-cut back of the envelope job. Obviously not all of OAIC’s work is complaints- or inquiry-based. But my main point is about major change requiring major changes. #Budget2022