Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

First Battle of Kyiv looks to be truly over. That is actually momentous. Whatever happens now we are talking about a limited war time and geography-wise--unless we think Russia has the will and resources to conscript, train and arm an entirely new army.

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1508787161021227012?s=20&t=y1BRy8-OmtNeGjJm1ziCTA

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1508530506694078473

If the Russians are pulling back from Kyiv (which looks likely), coming back will be very very hard without basically societal mobilization. They will probably divert all remaining combat worthy forces to try and consolidate Donbass and East.

Worth noting that this also means Russia is dropping its plan for Odessa--unless something remarkable happens.

The Donbass concentration means one fundamental thing--this war will be ended by a negotiation, and the Ukrainian government is in a very strong position. Russia cant dictate.

If Russia tries to simply hold on and illegally seize more Ukrainian territory, Ukraine can continue the war. And then what for Russia? What fresh forces they had will be burnt out trying to take and hold the Donbass. Ukraine will be very well-armed and in good morale.

The Russians could very well be facing organized resistance in their occupied territories. Its a big mess. What they cannot do, unless they are far more resilient than they seem, is somehow prepare a large army and go back to Kyiv.

So the First Battle of Kyiv looks to be the last, and its a Ukrainian victory that indicates (battles dont cause) just why Ukraine is now is such a strong position.

A quick addendum. Some are saying that they dont trust the Russians, this is to rest troops and regroup, etc. All that is true. Im not trusting Putin, Im looking at the reality of him withdrawing his BTGs from around Kyiv.

I think people might be underestimating the difficulty of operations (as they did before the war when they had the Russians march on Kyiv in a few days). The Russian Army around Kyiv is worn out. Its not like it can rest a little while and then fight its way back down,

It looks like what combat worthy formations they have will head to Donbass. So it will take an entirely new army to go back to Kyiv--one of the most heavily and well defended cities on earth,

War is really really hard--lets not start making the same easy assumptions about the abilities of the Russians to fight such a difficult campaign now as were made at the start of the war.

Last thing the Ukrainians would want to do is give the Russians a ceasefire to pull back from Kyiv. The Russians are still attacking across the south and east and through missiles. Don’t give them a cease fire in the one place they want it.

https://twitter.com/iuliiamendel/status/1508819014579015682

Some visual signs of withdrawing forces from the Kyiv front. If they are going onto flatbed railway cars they are going to another area, not resting to head back to Kyiv.

https://twitter.com/tadeuszgiczan/status/1508793606261420036

The Ukrainians are not going to let the RUssians withdawal easily from around Kyiv, unless there is an agreed ceasefire everywhere--would imagine.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1508799907439820806?s=20&t=GN3ogCKJFqylddgD6NHLeA

Some more reports that the Russians are indeed pulling troops out of the Kyiv area.

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1508882419147055106?s=20&t=GN3ogCKJFqylddgD6NHLeA

An interesting choice of phrase from the Pentagon. Russia not retreating from Kyiv but repositioning forces to fight somewhere else (Donbass?). Probably true, but it will take time to shift all the heavy equipment and those troops will need to rest.

https://twitter.com/glubold/status/1508883327482277892?s=20&t=GN3ogCKJFqylddgD6NHLeA