Thread by @Operation_Ryan

Cause for cautious "optimism" in #WarInUkraine? First, Russia announced completion of first stage of war, now the focus on main goal in Donbas. (1/8)

The military realizes that their reach exceeds their grasp and are trying to pull back from their losing battle around Kiev to shift forces east. Also, may be trying to buy time for forces NW of Kiev to avoid encirclement. (2/8)

Russia tacitly admitting that it cannot win a complete military victory in Ukraine and are redefining their position to something defensible, for the time being. (3/8)

reuters.com/world/europe/r…

Second, Russia is now signaling that they are not going to use nukes in Ukraine. Ofc still leaves open chem weapons in Ukraine and potential nuke response in bigger war, but is a de-escalation in one area the West has been most vulnerable to. (4/8)

msn.com/en-us/news/wor…

Third, Russia has indicated that “sooner or later” it will need to have some serious talks with the US about security, etc. This effectively delinks any requirement for explicit security guarantees from the US and negotiations with Ukraine. (5/8)

Now, it means there may need to be some no-kidding, serious talks later. But it’s a statement that Russia won’t require US promises as part of Ukraine agreement. (6/8)
reuters.com/world/kremlin-…

In USSR days, these events would be taken as a sign that “moderates in the Kremlin” are in control. Under Putin, old-style Kremlinology doesn’t quite work, b/c w/ Putin, power is more centralized than the old-school Politburo. (7/8)

The Occam’s Razor take though is that they may be starting to come out of sheer panic, hair-on-fire mode and are pivoting to more conventional damage control. (8/8)

@threadreaderapp unroll please

Synthesis: Russia is concerned that they're really facing disaster NW of Kiev and want to cool things down before that area collapses entirely. Also, in the event that it does, they want to already been on the "path to peace," instead of further embarrassment. (9/8)