The #UkraineWar is getting interesting again. 🧵 Back on June 8, I predicted that HIMARS would be a great tool for hitting depots and that the effect would be to push the depots further back, stressing supply trucks, etc.

https://twitter.com/Operation_Ryan/status/1534580068369956864

2/7 These predictions have been borne out in practice over the last month, as discussed by @TrentTelenko, who does a very good job in this thread about explaining why stretching out supply lines has an even bigger impact in a low-automation supply chain.

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1544472420484091905

@ELuttwak's book “Strategy: The Logic of War and Peace” is about the paradoxical logic dominates war. “If you want peace, prepare for war” or “A buildup of defense weapons can have an offensive purpose” Deterrence, etc. A #Ukraine 🧵
amazon.com/Strategy-Logic… One example is the "culminating point" of an offensive. When on the offense, doing too well can start creating its own problems. Overextended supply, the enemy has shorter interior GLOC, etc. Economists know this as a form of diminishing returns. bit.ly/3M3rzUa

2/11

A 🧵 about #ThinkTank stuff:

Think tanks are sometimes described as universities without students. Specialists and subject-matter experts sit around, do research, write papers, and think big thoughts about the world without having any of those pesky students around. Usually people are often way too busy doing their job (i.e., purely functional stuff) to get any real work done (i.e., figuring out how to be smarter about stuff). Think tanks attempt to address this by paying people to figure out how to be smarter about stuff. 2/16

A 🧵 on the upcoming May 9 Victory Day
 
There seems to be a widely held sense that one way or the other, the Ukraine war will enter a new phase starting May 9, the anniversary of the Soviet defeat of Nazi Germany in WW II. 2/10 Rumors and speculation abound, nobody is quite sure what the next phase of the conflict will look like. The only certainty is that May 9 will create not only an opportunity, but even a requirement for Putin to make dramatic announcements about the war.

Cause for cautious "optimism" in #WarInUkraine? First, Russia announced completion of first stage of war, now the focus on main goal in Donbas. (1/8) The military realizes that their reach exceeds their grasp and are trying to pull back from their losing battle around Kiev to shift forces east. Also, may be trying to buy time for forces NW of Kiev to avoid encirclement. (2/8)