This marks the beginning of a deluge of CYA as the 3-letter agencies in Wash. DC attempt to absolve themselves of the guilt for a fubar of epic proportions that left Pres. Biden dangling in the breeze politically and likely enabled this war. 1/ edition.cnn.com/europe/live-ne…
Ukraine has been an intelligence screw up of Pearl Harbor or 9/11/2001 class, and not just for Ukraine & Russia.
One of the things I've pounded upon is how per blind Western intelligence has been to extremely important labor productivity tools used in NATO militaries and
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that were utterly unknown in the Russian.
Pallets, containers, forklifts, cranes and the entire infrastructural suite that goes with them on vehicles and buildings just passed by three generations of western intelligence analysts.
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Since 1943 literally no one asked,
"How many forklifts and other material handling equipment are in a Soviet/Russian artillery unit TO&E."
That is a <bleeping> important question to ask if you are looking at an artillery heavy army.
Yet, nada, for 80 odd years.👀👀👀
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It looks like the Soviets never used these labor saving tools in WW2 and never had to move large tonnages of artillery in their own operations since then to require it.
It was all, "There are plenty more conscripts where that came from, comrade" with two to four man
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...loads of ammunition individually packed in wood boxes.
Both Korea & Vietnam were artillery heavy power projection wars for the USA so labor saving devices were adopted consistently.
And US intelligence never once actually compared how do the two armies differ in moving
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...ammo. It was mirror imaging all the way.
How many other critical cultural-institutional differences have Westerner placed a mirror-image onto its current & future enemies?
I'm looking at China -HARD- right now.
7/end
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Alright, while there have been a large number of corporate media reports on this latest Russian Invasion of Ukraine. This thread🧵is a series of youtube content creator videos I've watched and found useful.
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This Task & Purpose video gives a history of Ukraine's military from the fall of the Soviet Union to recent times.
It is very wisea** & snarky, AKA about my speed.
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This is a Battle Order video taking a snap shot of Ukrainian ground forces just prior to this latest invasion of Ukraine.
Alright, this is the promised thread🧵explaining the "Irrational Regime Hypothesis."
This is a national/institutional behavior template.
Warning: once you see this template. You cannot unsee it.
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The basic concept is that for certain unstable regimes (or even stable ones with no effective means of resolving internal disputes peacefully, particularly the succession of power) domestic power games are far more important than anything foreign, and that foreigners are
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...only symbols to use in domestic factional fights.
The need to show ideological purity & resolve - "virtue signaling" in modern terms - as a means of achieving power inside the ruling in-group becomes more important than objective reality
This thread🧵will lay out the reasons I think the Russians blew the technological development necessary to deal with drone threats in Ukraine & elsewhere.
Like all really important problems, it starts with how badly you treat people...in this case, Russian engineers.👇 1/
@robertgibbins14 >>Your logistics insights were extraordinary during this war.
It is less a matter of "being extraordinary" than simple experience.
The "common knowledge" of how military logistics really worked has faded with the end of draft armies in the West.
This 'null experience'
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@robertgibbins14 ...with how military logistics really works is why civilian intelligence analysts simply cannot get this stuff correct in this latest Russian Invasion of Ukraine.
As for Russian logistics, The Ukrainians have counter attacked and reached the Russian border at Trostianets.
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@robertgibbins14 That wouldn't have happened if Russian logistics were working.
The Ukrainians are doing slow, low casualty for them, counterattacks taking the maximum advantage of standoff munitions and drones to take back their territory