This marks the beginning of a deluge of CYA as the 3-letter agencies in Wash. DC attempt to absolve themselves of the guilt for a fubar of epic proportions that left Pres. Biden dangling in the breeze politically and likely enabled this war.
1/
edition.cnn.com/europe/live-ne…
Ukraine has been an intelligence screw up of Pearl Harbor or 9/11/2001 class, and not just for Ukraine & Russia.

One of the things I've pounded upon is how per blind Western intelligence has been to extremely important labor productivity tools used in NATO militaries and

2/
that were utterly unknown in the Russian.

Pallets, containers, forklifts, cranes and the entire infrastructural suite that goes with them on vehicles and buildings just passed by three generations of western intelligence analysts.

3/
Since 1943 literally no one asked,

"How many forklifts and other material handling equipment are in a Soviet/Russian artillery unit TO&E."

That is a <bleeping> important question to ask if you are looking at an artillery heavy army.

Yet, nada, for 80 odd years.👀👀👀

4/
It looks like the Soviets never used these labor saving tools in WW2 and never had to move large tonnages of artillery in their own operations since then to require it.

It was all, "There are plenty more conscripts where that came from, comrade" with two to four man
5/
...loads of ammunition individually packed in wood boxes.

Both Korea & Vietnam were artillery heavy power projection wars for the USA so labor saving devices were adopted consistently.

And US intelligence never once actually compared how do the two armies differ in moving

6/
...ammo. It was mirror imaging all the way.

How many other critical cultural-institutional differences have Westerner placed a mirror-image onto its current & future enemies?

I'm looking at China -HARD- right now.

7/end

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More from @TrentTelenko

Mar 31
Alright, while there have been a large number of corporate media reports on this latest Russian Invasion of Ukraine. This thread🧵is a series of youtube content creator videos I've watched and found useful.
1/
This Task & Purpose video gives a history of Ukraine's military from the fall of the Soviet Union to recent times.

It is very wisea** & snarky, AKA about my speed.

2/
This is a Battle Order video taking a snap shot of Ukrainian ground forces just prior to this latest invasion of Ukraine.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Mar 31
Alright, this is the promised thread🧵explaining the "Irrational Regime Hypothesis."

This is a national/institutional behavior template.

Warning: once you see this template. You cannot unsee it.

1/
The basic concept is that for certain unstable regimes (or even stable ones with no effective means of resolving internal disputes peacefully, particularly the succession of power) domestic power games are far more important than anything foreign, and that foreigners are

2/
...only symbols to use in domestic factional fights.

The need to show ideological purity & resolve - "virtue signaling" in modern terms - as a means of achieving power inside the ruling in-group becomes more important than objective reality

Only the internal power matters

3/
Read 30 tweets
Mar 30
Short logistical-intelligence visual lesson🧵

This is a captured Russian artillery supply point.

Look at the artillery packaging.

Note what is missing.

1/
This is a US Army 155mm lightweight towed gun in Afghanistan I found with a internet search on the term "us Army 155mm artillery shoot."

What do you see here under the 155mm shells that you don't in the previous tweet?

2/ Image
This is a 1967 picture from Vietnam from the same internet search.

Each one of those shells is 100lb/45kg. So the stack was moved by a forklift or crane.

Mechanized logistics has a 'look' anyone who has watched or done manual labor knows.

3/ Image
Read 5 tweets
Mar 28
@All_Source_News @ColbyBadhwar @_log_scale_ @AnselLindner @gladstein @raw_avocado @Comm_Morino @zndtoshi @The_IntelHub @Osinttechnical @jon96179496 @air_intel @TheOsintBunker @sentdefender @TheOsintJournal @YAmzallagh @Felix_Nuno @RealCynicalFox @SpencerGuard @SP1AUTOINJECT @int_osic @OSINTEng @ohsendit @OSINT_Canada Cause & effect chains are not that hard.

They teach them to DoD quality inspectors & auditors to protect the public from defense contractor fraud, waste & abuse.

The idea is to know organizational behavior templates and their proxies.

1/
@All_Source_News @ColbyBadhwar @_log_scale_ @AnselLindner @gladstein @raw_avocado @Comm_Morino @zndtoshi @The_IntelHub @Osinttechnical @jon96179496 @air_intel @TheOsintBunker @sentdefender @TheOsintJournal @YAmzallagh @Felix_Nuno @RealCynicalFox @SpencerGuard @SP1AUTOINJECT @int_osic @OSINTEng @ohsendit @OSINT_Canada The most important behavior template is "corruption cannot be centralized."

AKA, If you see a corrupt practice. There will be more.

Proxies are harder to explain, but there is a public health inspection one that Marvin Zimler of ABC 13 Eyewitness News Houston made popular
2/
Read 4 tweets
Mar 27
This thread🧵will lay out the reasons I think the Russians blew the technological development necessary to deal with drone threats in Ukraine & elsewhere.

Like all really important problems, it starts with how badly you treat people...in this case, Russian engineers.👇
1/
Ukrainian media sources have noted a massive emigration of Russian STEM workers for at least 5-years.

There is a reason for this. Putin issued a decree stating that STEM workers were a "National Resource." AKA they could be taken as a state slave.

They took the hint.
2/
The bill for this came due in 2018.

In January 2018 there were DIY armed drone attacks on the Russian Khmeimim airbase & the Tartus, Syria naval base.

The drones drew on existing radio controlled aircraft technology. They had diesel engines,
3/ Image
Read 13 tweets
Mar 27
@robertgibbins14 >>Your logistics insights were extraordinary during this war.

It is less a matter of "being extraordinary" than simple experience.

The "common knowledge" of how military logistics really worked has faded with the end of draft armies in the West.

This 'null experience'
1/
@robertgibbins14 ...with how military logistics really works is why civilian intelligence analysts simply cannot get this stuff correct in this latest Russian Invasion of Ukraine.

As for Russian logistics, The Ukrainians have counter attacked and reached the Russian border at Trostianets.

2/
@robertgibbins14 That wouldn't have happened if Russian logistics were working.

The Ukrainians are doing slow, low casualty for them, counterattacks taking the maximum advantage of standoff munitions and drones to take back their territory

3/
Read 5 tweets

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