Thread by @bow_trix

A (long) thread of my opinions (as the greatest predictor in history) on two main possible outcomes for the recent "hack" of the Ronin Bridge. #AxieInfinity #Rugpull @Jihoz_Axie

(1) 75% chance - Inside Job/Rug Pull:

In this case, one or more of the Axie team members planned out this attack and executed it like this on purpose.

This one objectively makes the most sense because there were 4 compromised private keys, which are virtually impossible to "hack" unless you have physical access to them. Additionally, the Axie team ignored confrontation about the hack and took all of 6 days to make any response.

Logically in this instance, they will pretend to search for the people responsible, but either nothing turns up or they find a way to pin the blame on someone else to keep the pyramid scheme going longer.

There could be a tiny partial return of funds, just to make the people think they are "getting somewhere". The bridge will likely remain down to prevent anyone from removing their money, which no longer belongs to them.

All the things which were "planned" for Axie, like land play and battles V3 will just keep getting "delayed" since they aren't being developed at all.

The team will never give a final "yeah it's over, we rugged" because then everyone would sell and they would stop earning a lot of money from fees and being able to dump their AXS and RON tokens systematically as they unlock.

They will let it die slowly, and one by one people will realize Axie is dead. The Axie team walks away with several billion dollars in profit.

If they do not procure a scapegoat, law enforcers will eventually get involved, and there is a good chance there will be some form of legal punishment for the Axie team. Perhaps they will be ordered to return the funds of their investors, and they might also face time in jail.

However, true justice will almost definitely not ever be served because history shows us time and time again that the rich are above the law. Billionaires don't play by the same rules we do.

(2) 25% chance - Hacked by an outside party:

In this case, someone who is not part of the inner circle of Axie Infinity did the hack.

This one is hard to believe because the hacker would need to be both extremely stupid to have performed KYC on several exchanges linked directly to the wallet and have also failed to use Tornado Cash or another method to conceal the funds quickly after stealing them...

AND extremely smart to be able to pull off the second-biggest heist in crypto history. Someone being both extremely smart and extremely stupid, managing to pull off this brilliant scheme and somehow not thinking two steps right ahead of themself, doesn't seem likely.

If this is really what happened, some/all of the funds will likely end up being returned. The hacker might feel inclined to give back a large chunk of the funds in exchange for being permitted to keep part of them, or maybe even join the Axie team as the head of security.

Beyond this, there is a nonzero chance that the hacker was stupid enough to perform KYC using their OWN identity on at least one of the several exchanges their wallet has interacted with, which would expose who they are and probably lead to the funds being returned as well.

Thanks for reading friends. Feel free to comment on your own thoughts and predictions.