According to a recent survey by the Levada Center, Russia's leading/only independent pollster, Vladimir Putin's approval rating has reached 83%, an increase of 12 points over the past month.

This is Putin's highest figure since the start of his fourth term back in 2018.
Incidentally, I recently wrote an article for @ggreenwald where I interviewed Denis Volkov, director of the Levada Center, about potential impact of the #UkraineConflict and Western sanctions on Russian public opinion.

Here is what Volkov told me about why a majority of ordinary Russians appear to support the Kremlin's actions in Ukraine despite the economic pain of Western sanctions.
And an important caveat about polling in Russia at this time:

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More from @DimitriASimes

Mar 30
#Breaking: South Ossetia, a breakaway region of Georgia, announced that it plans on becoming part of Russia in the near future.

Back in 2008, Russia went to war against Georgia after the latter tried to reassert its control over South Ossetia. Image
Here is the statement from the leader of South Ossetia: I believe that unification with Russia is our strategic goal...The Republic of South Ossetia will be part of its historical homeland - Russia."

er.ru/activity/news/…
South Ossetia's announcement comes shortly after the two self-proclaimed Donbass republics indicated that they plan on holding referendums to become part of Russia.

I don't think this is purely a coincidence.

Read 5 tweets
Mar 28
On this week of bad takes on Russian history: David Frum tries his hand at 20th century Russian military history.

This is obvious nonsense, but for educational purposes, let’s take a closer look at David’s claims point by point. 🧵
First stop is Russo-Japanese War of 1904-05. This is a pretty fascinating example since even though Russia lost nearly every battle, it ended up getting a pretty favorable peace deal.
Despite its success on the battlefield, the Japan was financially exhausted by the war. Most historians agree that despite Russia’s problems (and they were many), Japan couldn’t have kept fighting for much longer. Especially if Russia managed to send its reserves.
Read 15 tweets
Mar 27
Russia's Pivot to Asia 2.0 will likely be not just a political & economic shift, but also a cultural one to some extent. I expect to see more Indian + Chinese films in Russian movie theaters over next several years. Same goes for Russian art museums.
Despite Russia's geographic location, I don't think Russians will ever view themselves as culturally closer to Asia than Europe. But I do think that Russians will become much more familiar with different Asian cultures, and therefore view them as less distant/alien.
From my perch in Moscow, I'm already starting to see this. One of my friends, a young liberal/leftist Muscovite who studied in Europe, recently told me that China will become "Russia's window to the outside world." Other acquaintances have made similar comments
Read 4 tweets
Mar 12
I try to stay away from editorializing on here, but I will make an exception for this New Yorker interview with Princeton historian Stephen Kotkin.

Kotkin makes some bizarre claims about Russian history which should be addressed. Let's begin 🧵

newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/s…
Some background first: Editor David Remnick asks Kotkin about the role of NATO expansion in causing the #UkraineConflict.

Kotkin goes on a weird essentialist rant in which he claims that Russia has always been an aggressive, autocratic power that hostile to the West.
Let's begin with the "suspicion" of Westerners part.

That claim doesn't really hold up scrutiny for the Russian Empire, which was modeled by Peter I on European absolute monarchies. Post-Peter, Russian monarchs spoke numerous European languages and had European relatives.
Read 26 tweets
Mar 12
The problem with this piece is that it basically goes from Ivan IV to Putin, and draw a completely straight line through 500+ years of Russian history.

Totally ignoring the legions of nuances or trying to do any comparisons with other European societies of the time.
I mean for example, Tudor England also had political centralization, state-backed violence against its subjects, and a subordination of the church to the regime.

So…not all that different from Russia under Ivan IV. Maybe the 1500s are not the point of divergence after all?
In fact, Russia’s political development for most of its history has been very closely aligned with that of Europe. The Russian Empire was explicitly modelled after European absolute monarchies by Peter I. Centralization and absolutism were continent wide trends
Read 8 tweets
Mar 8
CNN reports: "Chinese retail investors are snapping up stocks with even the slightest link to trade with Russia, as they bet on closer economic ties between the two countries following unprecedented Western sanctions on Moscow."

cnn.com/2022/03/08/inv…
Shares in Jinzhou Port, China's most northern seaport with direct shipping routes to Russia, has shot up 94% on the Shanghai Stock Exchange since Feb. 24, the beginning of Moscow's military operation in Ukraine.
Xinjiang Tianshun Supply Chain — a logistics company for bulky goods in far northwestern Xinjiang, which directly shares a 60-mile border with Russia — has also jumped 95% on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange over the past seven sessions.
Read 5 tweets

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