Russia’s ‘repositioning’ is 💯💩. They flat-out lost the #BattleofKiev and the bulk of their most elite VDV & SpetNaz units destroyed near Irpin (& Hostumel). They retreat in ruin leaving bodies & gear behind.
Let’s not allow FSB spin to diminish Ukraine’s vital victory.
🧵
Let’s not allow FSB spin to diminish Ukraine’s vital victory.
🧵
Especially NW of Kiev where RUS deployed their most elite units, the UAF defense was extraordinary. Also the interdiction and destruction of that eastern thrust (the ‘column’). Holding Sumy & Chernaiv. All this after late repositioning when RUS used Belorussian territory.
The RUS goal from the start was to decapitate and replace Ukraines govt, then encircle Kiev to compel surrender. Both gambits have failed utterly due to the bravery of Ukrainian arms (& support from abroad). This is not a repositioning. This is a historic military victory.
Those RUS troops being withdrawn will take weeks/months to make any difference in the south if ever. Their vehicles, kit, morale & unit cohesion is a shambles. Maybe thrown in piecemeal to reinforce other units (like USA’s WW2 ‘repo depots’) but otherwise a complete loss.
As they pull back, while publicly stating they are ‘deescalating’ the RUS will steal or destroy anything of value & leave behind piles of smoking rubble sewn with land mines cowardly spread by long range artillery.
For generations, people will lose legs in their gardens.
For generations, people will lose legs in their gardens.
They also may be pulling out so as to use chemical weapons on Kiev. Putin is reportedly hunkered in the Urals. Take all that with a grain or two of salt, BUT nothing has proven below this despicable pile of human excrement. Poisoning negotiators is just the latest example.
And the fight is not over. Significant RUS forces are dug in north of Kiev, Sumy, Chernaiv etc and need to be rooted out and sent running back to their master. And all this while #Mariupol is still starving, Kharkiv being leveled & #Mikolayiv holds the line.
The big strategic question is whether or not Ukraine’s gallant armed forces and citizens can turn a heroic defense into an effective counterattack. Can an army based largely on light, rocket armed infantry take offensive action in a modern battlefield.
Most military analysts believe that offense in modern war needs a full array of combined arms: armor, helicopters, planes, drones, EW and infantry. Does Ukraine have enough of this kit and training to go on the offensive to relieve Mariupol? To retake Crimea?
Or will this be a Pyrrhic victory that leaves both countries in ruin. & as @walterlekh and his brilliant cohorts point out in nightly discussions: the Russian army is by most standards destroyed, for decades.
Due to sanctions, Russia will not be able to replace destroyed equipment. Their officer corps was shaky before the war & is a shambles now. Their base of manpower in a mostly geriatric country is dwindling. Not to mention whatever political repercussions emanate from sanctions.
Russia has lost terribly. But their buildings, factories, parks, schools, hospitals etc still stand. Much of Ukraine is leveled. So this is the definition of a Pyrrhic victory.
That said. It’s a victory and for just this once. Just today. Can we GIVE them their victory?
That said. It’s a victory and for just this once. Just today. Can we GIVE them their victory?
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