March was a decent month for stocks but my portfolio lost some ground due to my portfolio hedges, big drawdowns in some of my stocks and losses on my index short positions.
Nevertheless, my portfolio managed to close out the month with a 0.22% YTD gain...
4)...versus (-)7.53% for the $ACWI and (-)5.73% for $SPX.
March was a relatively quiet month for me, I didn't make any changes to my portfolio stocks. Instead, I covered my index shorts and hedges and after getting the signal, went long #ES_F.
5)...position is a longer-term trading position with a pre-determined stop set just below a key moving average, so if the market turns south, it will be closed with a small loss.
In terms of my stocks, I didn't do any buying or selling in March and as long as these companies...
6)...continue to execute, plan to remain a shareholder of these wonderful businesses.
In terms of the market outlook, am fairly confident that most high growth stocks have hit their lows and are now likely to build bases before resuming their northbound journey.
There will...
7)...be volatility (due to Fed policy and geopolitics) but am of the view that most high growth stocks have already discounted the worst.
In terms of the indices, am unsure whether we've seen the lows or not. The market breadth has been very strong off the recent lows but...
8)...valuations are still stretched, so another leg down cannot be ruled out. The next few weeks will reveal whether we've seen the low or not.
No guarantees, but of the view that the dominant ecommerce, fintech/payments, software businesses will reward shareholders.
THE END.
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Once we get there and the FED pivots, fortunes will be made on the other side. Most high growth stocks have been crushed + they are now undervalued, so investors should capture entire biz growth.
Those who have been scaling into the high growth stocks on a weekly basis over the past several weeks must surely be "under water" right now.
However, IMHO another couple of weeks of DCA will be good enough. Highly probable these positions will produce decent long-term IRR.
For the sake of accountability, I got most things right with this downturn; warned about the carnage, turned bearish last autumn, suggested indices would drop 20%+
However, my weekly DCA into the high growth stocks turned out to be premature. My timing could've been better.
Lot of chatter that the bombed out leaders of this bull-market will "never come back", they will remain "dead money" for years!
It might take several years for some of them to get back to their ATHs *but* the great high growth businesses will be multi-baggers over time.
With so many high quality businesses down 70-80% from their ATHs, just getting back to their old ATHs will make them multi-baggers for those who scale in around these levels.
Over time, these businesses with strong growth will leave the "cheap/mature" companies in the dust.
Remember, the high quality companies which are mission critical are not broken businesses, they are simply temporarily broken stocks (due to tightening liquidity).
When the rate of inflation peaks and Fed backs off, these loathed stocks will recover.
A number of anonymous haters have circulated my fake bio on Twitter, so I wish to set the record straight -
In 2001, I co-founded an SFC-regulated investment management firm in Hong Kong and was its Director + Responsible Officer.
In 2005, I resigned from that firm, sold my...
...shares and founded my boutique SFC-regulated investment management in Hong Kong, which I ran as Director/Responsible Officer for 11 years.
In 2016, I retired from the investment business and my company was acquired by a Hong Kong based listed asset management firm...
From 2001-2016, I was a regular guest on BBC, Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN and RTHK Radio and also wrote monthly investment columns for the South China Morning Post (Sunday Money), Hong Kong Business Magazine, Hong Kong Economic Times and Hong Kong Economic Journal....
Got trolled for being cautious in late 2021 and recently, got trolled for suggesting that growth stocks might show relative strength and bottom before the indices!
Not sure whether growth stocks have bottomed or not but they are showing relative strength.
Weekly DCA way to go!
As the economy slows down in H1 2022, the recurring revenue companies with durable growth are likely to shine again...
When the near-term prospects of most businesses become murky, investors should flock to the safety and predictability of the recurring revenue compounders.