Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #ES_F

Most recents (24)

Thread 🧵about the market.

1/n Family, friends and some followers ask me where I think the market is heading. Some are bulls, others are bears. It's a good question. Here is my answer. I have no freaking idea. $SPX $SPY $NDX $QQQ #ES_F #NQ_F
2/n Maybe I'm not as smart as some gurus who predict a rebound to new highs, or some others who think this is going way lower. Or, I have learned my lessons. This is what I mean.
3/n During the dot com bear market, after a 20% drop I thought the market was going to rebound. I didn't lose much from trading, I lost from my stock portfolio. Because after it dropped 30%, I sold in panic and took the loss. I didn't add when the market bottomed in 2003.
Read 11 tweets
Mid-month portfolio snapshot -

$ADYEY $CFLT $DDOG $DLO $GLBE $GTLB $LILM $MNDY $NU $OKTA $PLTR $QS $S $SHOP $SNOW $SOFI $TWLO $U $UPST $ZI #ES_F
New buys - $NU $QS $UPST

Sold $MELI $SE $TOST as competition ramping up and significant growth slowdown expected post '23.
$NU - analysts forecasting strong growth -

Key investors -

Berkshire Hathaway, Sequoia, Tencent, Founders Fund, Tiger Global, Whale Rock Capital + Baillie Gifford.

Disclosure - I'm long $NU
Read 3 tweets
1)Portfolio Mar-end -

$ADYEY $CFLT $DDOG $DLO $GLBE $GTLB $LILM $MELI $MNDY $OKTA $PLTR $S $SE $SHOP $SOFI $SNOW $TOST $TWLO $U $ZI #ES_F

Return since 1 Sept '16 -

Portfolio +692.91% (44.93%pa)
$ACWI +72.78% (10.30%pa)
$SPX +108.70% (14.09%pa)

Contd...
2) YTD return (2022)-

Portfolio +0.22%
$ACWI (-)7.53%
$SPX (-)5.73%

Biggest positions -

1) $MELI 2) $PLTR 3) $SNOW 4) $ZI 5) $DDOG

Contd....
3) Commentary -

March was a decent month for stocks but my portfolio lost some ground due to my portfolio hedges, big drawdowns in some of my stocks and losses on my index short positions.

Nevertheless, my portfolio managed to close out the month with a 0.22% YTD gain...
Read 8 tweets
My friend @AnthonyCrudele says, “trading is a journey of oneself” One of the ways I interpret that is that along this journey, you have to arrive at the approach to markets that fits you. This means if you are developing you will need…...
to be exposed to a number of ways to approach markets. This means learning from different practitioners. I understand this is a challenge. However, let’s say you want to gain skill expressing skill in intraday directional trades in the #ES_F….
I can certainly get you started w/a solid foundation, but let's say you want to hone focus on the open. Then, you should spend some time w/@paxtrader777.
Read 13 tweets
Contest!
Draw the 1 hour broadening formation on #ES_F!
The FIRST person to replicate what I have drawn will get a free coffee mug courtesy of @tradingview
@tradingview Okay, tons of beautiful broadening formations. Timing out the contest to see who the winner is! Great job everyone!
Here is what I had drawn.
Read 4 tweets
🧵-I was interested to see when is #es_f most likely to put in high of day (HOD) or low of day (LOD) so I looked into some data. I had previously looked at how often 30m Opening Range puts in HOD or LOD, but now I am interested in how often which trading period put in HOD or LOD.
Each ‘period’ represents a 30 minute candle. The periods are labeled with letters, starting with A for the RTH open, and M for last 30 minutes of RTH close. Google TPO/Market Profile for more info. I used 276 trading days, first day was 1/4/21. Last Trading day, 2/11/22.
Here is the bar graph for periods where we put in HOD, pretty interesting to see that A and M period put in HOD over 50% of the time, while only being 15% (2/13) of the RTH time. Image
Read 7 tweets
Clean technicals for #ES_F with selling after the loss of the core 4610 trendline. Rare victories here for bears: A multi-month trendline caved & 50dma also

1st target remains 4560-65 & enroute. Relief bounce shot there with 4525 below. Bears in control until >4615 recaptures
Update: Nice move here and coming into 4565 target zone in #ES_F! Bulls looking for a relief bounce (only that for now) going to need to bounce it here, otherwise next strong support zone not until 4525-30ish. For those following on Substack, just sent out a lunchtime update
Evening update: #ES_F put in a bounce off 4565 support but coming back down to retest now and looking quite heavy in the overnight session. 4525-30 next target down and wouldn't be surprised to see it clipped overnight or tomorrow
Read 4 tweets
Thread 1/5: After seeing such a clean rejection off of the 30m OR (opening range) for #NQ_F on Friday, I thought of @Michigandolf, who loves the 30m OR. I then wondered how often we close below or above the 30m OR. I decided to do the math so you don’t have to.
Although #ES_F did not reject the 30m OR like NQ on Friday, it did reject the open. You can see the highlighted area around open is the 30 second OR, popularized by @paxtrader777 and shared by a few others. My favorite opening range on my chart.
I was surprised, I would have guessed we closed outside of the 30m OR ~50% of the time or less, but actually we close outside of the 30m OR 73% of the time. NQ even closes outside of the 60m OR more times than it closes inside.
Read 5 tweets
If you traded 1 contract per 100K, futures on average fluctuate 20-30 points per day, that’s 1% move on equity. #ES_F
If 1% is your stop loss acct equity per trade, how much of a buffer do you need for entries after a multi session move down. #ES_F or volatility in general will kick off most stop losses for most accts.
The session starts at Euro open 2am NYC time not 9:30 .. #ES_F
Read 17 tweets
What have you changed in your trading since Mar'20? We saw majority of vol sellers setting a higher bar to enter a trade. But during this period we also found some edge: Despite equity vol finding equilibrium at elevated levels, $SPX autocorrelation averaged < 0. $VIX #ES_F ImageImage
This means that the gamma portion of index options took out the trend. So you had dealers' hedging requirements selling the upticks and buying the dips.
Never in the past had we shorted 1week $SPX variance with such regularity. Image
What can end this melt-up in stocks? Mkt ecosystem depends on a Fed put + liquidity. Fed has solved the liquidity issue but not solvency issues. Credit may prove cause of future shocks. And $VIX might follow the credit cycle. We gauge mkt fragility via VIX futures over $SPX IV. Image
Read 3 tweets
[THREAD] Since we're at ATHi's in #ES_F, and $VIX has come in over the past month (as expected, tapping highs), below are some charts and analyses that might be of interest...

First, VIX over time incl. mean-reversion (though the mean has changed) along with descriptive stats...
Second, it's anecdotally known that VIX—and implied volatility in general—tends to exhibit a negative correlation with price (-0.7) and a positive one w/volume. This attribute is why the media is fond of calling VIX "the fear index," despite vol being a non-directional measure...
Yet, the level of vol actually displays MORE predictive properties than returns (direction) because statistically it "clusters"—high vol is followed by high vol, vice versa. We can examine this using an autocorrelation test (i.e., is a given time series correlated w/itself?) ...
Read 6 tweets
Why do you keep losing?

A new post that fleshes out an approach to trading from first principles... [thread]
tendex.substack.com/p/firstprincip…
Key highlights of the piece include a focus on six core planks that reside under the rubric of two overarching categories: quantitative (mathematical) factors & qualitative (psychological) factors. These planks are intimately related and support one another interchangeably...
The quantitative (or mathematical) planks:

1) R-factor (reward-to-risk ratio or payout structure)
2) Win rate (or the frequency of loss)
3) Edge (the positive expectancy of a process over time)
Read 4 tweets
Traders often post successful trades on social media, but I rarely see losing trades. Losers can be a valuable learning tool. Here's one that happened to me this AM. #Wyckoff #learntotrade #tradingcourse #daytrader #trading #daytrading #SP500 #ES_F
Coming in, we had a Spring set up during the European session. This is on the 240-min chart. After penetrating a swing low, price reverses and closes above that swing low. That's a Spring. They are especially good in uptrends. And this one had pretty much everything going for it
Although the daily was showing supply, this spring seemed to test the big acceleration up on 8/27 & was holding atop old resistance/now support. We call this a Jump Across the Creek (JAC) & anticipate a pullback for potential trade entry. A Spring in this situation is ideal.
Read 7 tweets
#Trading review 🧵 #CL_F : lessons to take from this trade, which is the identical breakout strategy I use in #ES_F or $SPY swing trades

In crude🛢️last week, I was watching a 'ledge', which I define as support/resistance on the 4H or daily

On #marketprofile, it's a balance area
1) See pic - 8 straight closes within this balance area

The last 3 of those days prior to breakout resulted in a weak high, or weak positioning

We know this favors a revisit + that shorts likely placed stops just above

In the 3 days prior to break, value developed lower Image
2) On the daily + 4H charts, we had this level also acting as resistance (easy to see)

Rather than an extended term resistance line, the short-term nature of this further supported my theory of weak positioning rather than strong resistance

Read on for the strategy.... ImageImage
Read 6 tweets
Is gamma-hedging overhyped?

Personally, I think the consequences on price action is widely misunderstood and broadly misused... [thread]

bit.ly/2UW7xGJ
At the very least, we should take into consideration a few limiting factors when trying to use estimates of gamma-hedging to predict or explain price action:

1) Implications of gamma-hedging are model estimates, rife w/assumptions; Precision needs to be treated w/skepticism.
2) Not all option expiration periods are of equal or even material significance.

3) Without knowing the holders, intent, or how participants manage their option risks, we are left somewhat in the dark.

4) Concentrated aggregate risk is often more significant than mere exposure.
Read 4 tweets
Updated portfolio -

$ADYEY $AGC $CRWD $DLO $DOCU $GLBE $LSPD
$MELI $MTTR $OKTA $PATH $PLTR $QELL $SE $SHOP $SNOW $TWLO $U $UPST $ZI #ES_F

Top 5 --> 1) $MELI 2) $SE 3) $PLTR 4) $U 5) $GLBE
Changes -

This month, I've further removed the lower conviction stocks from my portfolio, re-invested in Unity, Upstart and increased positions in D-Local, Lightspeed, Okta, Palantir and Snowflake.

If my companies keep executing, intend to own shares for the long haul.
Sold -

$AFTPY -> Acquired by Square
$FVRR -> LinkedIn marketplace launch threat
$ROKU -> Intensifying competition, int'l is tough
$SNAP -> Doubts about s. media's moat

These companies may end up doing very well, but I just don't like doubt/uncertainty. Prefer simple stories.
Read 3 tweets
Look at the size of these rotations in #ES_F since RTH open. There's clearly a battle of size on BOTH sides after gap open lower; but the magnitude of declines is still a bit greater than advances. Be cautious as this structural area (280-300) is showing signs of indecisive chop. Image
In reference to the #ES_F balance described (280-300), it continues to fill out w/wide rotational chop, volume +130% of normal (with larger size running a bit higher than that). Watch for change relative to these levels for continuation trades w/solid R. Be careful in the middle. Image
Here's the #ES_F long entry developing in real-time right now against IBHi that I described in the prior tweet. entries against 301-300 Century make sense for gap closure to 320 yLo IMO. Would be wrong below 298s. Image
Read 3 tweets
Ok, now that funds are safe with >100 pts gain on #ES_F and circa 75 pts gain on #NQ this week on 3/4 trades I'll say what I think and atm equities does not look good

They don't look good fundamentally speaking since some weeks, that's why I waited >4240 to start shorting
as fundamentals matter but we need some technicals to gain a good spot and don't take too much heat.
For now, I can be wrong, I am still not willing in buying bottoms but honestly I don't want to influence anybody with macro mid term views here, so do your own analysis first
btw for now, I won't. When I will, I'll tell, I prefer missing out than entering in fomo in this scenario. As I traded some hard markets in the last few years the only thing I want to "suggest" is to be careful always, not every year is easy as last 12 months used to be.
Read 5 tweets
Interesting divergence forming in #ES_F delta when separated by size. We have total delta red (-1743), held down by smaller size sellers, meanwhile the largest of size (>100ct) is actually lifting to highs of the session on above avg volume (+28%) vs just below avg (-7%) overall.
So one looks at the time stamps, the developing low today was carved out around 11:20ET and that's when u see size begin to step in to lift offers aggressively. If one has access to the historical tape/FP, u can see several large stop runs in the move, particularly back above yLo
In addition to the #ES_F large size delta I pointed out a bit ago, we have active participation right now at the turn into last hour of cash by aggressive size buyers attempting to again surmount yHi & pWkHi 30-1s. Sell supply is heavy, but I think ONHi-to-ATH 37/8s is feasible.
Read 3 tweets
Haven't seen an Everything Rally like this in a longgg time
starting this week at the highs of last week for #NQ_F #ES_F. Seems like bullish sentiment might be building on the notion that stocks survived crypto wipeout and that is now another risk point removed.
probably want to watch the dollar #DX_F $DXY today for any sign a.m. Everything Trade doesn't hold up. It's been oscillating around 90, the low from Feb & a busy trading level. Related, yields in middle of 3-month range but right at top from 7yr auction spaz
Read 6 tweets
Consistent large #ES_F seller(s) stepping in on every test of VWAP. So far downtrend secure. Important to watch for any squeeze above VWAP now, holding from above. If that happens then a move back to 57s ONLO & VWAP(f) area [~10pts] seems quite likely to me. Otherwise stay short.
And again, just now testing #ES_F VWAP at 41s and another +1200 block of sell size coming in right on top of it to hit bids (we also have some simultaneous partial covering in that). Prior tweet about watching VWAP for any potential directional change still holds.
And the same #ES_F phenomenon again, +1200 lot and then immediate coverage of ~40% at about +1.50pts. Interesting action and seems algorithmic to take advantage of VWAP using size, so doesn't look sustainable to me to hold 41s here (ie. it's NOT long term money selling).
Read 3 tweets
Excellent strength this morning following the breakout of a clean multi-week triangle pattern in #ES_F and my 3936 1st target for the day just hit

3950 above here if this can clear, where ideally we get the next cool-off/consolidation period before tackling the old ATH. $SPX
Looks to be pushing through 3936! 3950 next up, if it can't consolidate there we squeeze direct to 4020 upper target
3950 target hit. Incredible move today. Old all time high then 4020 above here.
Read 3 tweets
Conviction is a firmly held belief/opinion.

Decision-making is rooted in conviction, which helps to:

- get comfortable w uncertainty
- ease doubt
- increase confidence
- manage risk

Investors + traders establish conviction in diff ways...👇

#es_f $spy $spx
1) Conviction is created.

Short term traders make decisions - sometimes several times a day - relatively quickly, synthesizing many data points to execute a trade in short order.

Long term investors follow a due diligence process; they update their thesis regularly w new info.
2) Conviction is confidence.

We inform our decisions based on what we hypothesize is most likely to happen, knowing full well we may be wrong.

We live w the results.

Your conviction contributes to your risk, your ability to hold through drawdowns, + ultimately your results.
Read 7 tweets
#es_f profile structure in RT below told us most of what we needed to know coming into today, and it's played out nicely.

Once poor high was revisited, market tried back towards yest. + o/n range in B + C periods (pic).

Volume provided confirmation on this move.

$spy $spx Image
Here are some other notes:

With the strong excess from 2/2, I wanted confirmation yesterday (2/3) that move up was accepted, this came in the form of the value area location...

...It was mostly overlapping; POC matched too.
This morning, the move up in A period was pretty strong, but I mentioned caution about going too early; for me, it's all about taking high conviction trades.

(There's a lot in the context, so I don't ever pre-determine that I'm going long or short at certain locations).
Read 5 tweets

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