Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #ES_F

Most recents (20)

Today I will share something I learned after 12 years as a creature of markets. Plz share this with others so they don’t waste years realizing this.

Day traders have v low chance of making consistent money. Those who trade with charts & indicator have zero chance. Read on why 1/
Making money in markets is not a function of oscillators or charts.

This is only for short term day trading.

I view weekly/monthly charts for my IRA and it’s very useful. This post is referencing only those who trade intraday , short term.

Profit depends on 2 things ONLY 2/
ONLY 2 factors decide if you make money & how much you make when you do:

1. Volatility
2. Liquidity

Volatility is a function of liquidity.

Too much volatility & no liquidity , you won’t get fills/ get out.

Too much liquidity will mean no volatility

There is a sweet spot /3
Read 6 tweets
Have you ever experienced long winning streaks followed by a short losing streak that wipes your winning streak out? Do you trade multiple markets? Equities? Futures? One thing I found in my own journey is this, trading is a deep relationship between yourself and the market
You trade. I trade the #es_f, and only the #es_f most successful traders I know only trade a single market. For me personally, I look at the market the same as marriage or dating. You have to have a intimate relationship with both. You have to be able to tell your partner is
Having a off day, not feeling well, what makes the happy, sad, what gets them excited, when to hug, laugh, cry, where to touch, rub, kiss. For me I approach the market exactly the same way. I don’t look at other markets with lust or envy. I have a intimate relationship
Read 5 tweets
#es_f open is 2841.50 high 41.75 low 29360. Wide OR. Be patient.
Use the high of OR and low as trade locations.
Cut size trades in both markets
This is a good day to do nothing. Or very little. I am short small.
Read 3 tweets
Sorry I’m late. #es_f open is 2928.75 high 2929.25 low 28.50.
We are short at 28 in discord.
We paid for our trades at 2924 and now the next target is 2914-16
My bids are in at 2915 for the 2/3 of my shorts.
Read 3 tweets
#es_f open is 2915.25 high 15.50 low 13.50
Short ES 13.25.
Out of shorts at 14 long 15.50
Read 7 tweets
#es_f open is 2900 high 2901 low 99.75.
Short at 99.75
Stops are eyeballing a bid above 01. I will pay for me shorts at 95.75. First target is 90
Read 3 tweets
Its a rage to talk buybacks=RAMP BUT:

1. buyback securities have underperformed
2. epic buybacks didnt hold mkt up in Oct/Dec

BUYBACKS are NOT imo whats driven this episode - INTERVENTION via order matching is: THROTTLING

THIS IS OUR THREAD RE THE NEW OFFICIAL INTERVENTION /1
this is going to be an in-depth discussion & a long thread which we will update throughout evening

so come back to check it as it will take an hour or 2 before we’re done with all the posts explaining the conditions/character/repercussions of this new intervention mechanism /2
lets talk abt the types of intervention thatve regularly been used

1. Direct Asset Purchases &/or QE
2. Short Vol (Fed’s favorite technique up till recently)
3. Self-help exchange interruptions

The new one: THROTTLING has huge advantages for the idiot yet intellectual class /3
Read 21 tweets
New line in the sand on the day is 2684 which was a top 9 percentile X-Tick buyer capitulation. This is now support and will be defended...below it represents a demerit for buyers and would target prev seller exhaustion #ticktools
its no small achievement what buyers have accomplished here breaking over the 2684 X-Tick and it remains a bullish signal short-term #ticktools
for sellers would like to see #ES_F below this 2684 level...normally fed days are not straight up and the first reaction which in this case was positive is reversed...but today...is not following that as of yet - we’ll see
Read 3 tweets
Out of these shorts for 1 point profit - action is weird
not feeling well today and this action is miserable...#ES_F needs below 2641.5 for sellers and popped back above it...if it drops below there imo bears get the ball and would likely attempt to run with it #ticktools
FWIW remain in our swing shorts BTW
Read 4 tweets
Just want to reiterate we are very comfortable with building our positions and also the stratgey positions - we consistently mentioned the two targets on #geometrics today and also that we knew we could be early...but imo this is how one gets these trades. /1
Sometimes markets turn fast (early in the cycle and sometimes later [as with this move]) but if you are not willing to build positions early but at decent prices one misses big opportunities. /2
The action in markets right now is not surprising though it was not preferred...however note that what was pivotal was that #geometrics stress level overshoot at 2581.75 #ES_F that held its retest today and ramped straight from there. IMO buyers here are in for serious pain /3
Read 4 tweets
Let’s get this #mcm_chartstorm going

1/

Let’s start with the $INDU
2/

And $SPY $SPX have the same pattern & perfect symmetry BTW imo
3/

$SPHBI High Beta index made a perfect kiss of resistance
$SPX
Read 61 tweets
Execution Sentiment Index is STILL NEGATIVE even after a 30 point #ES_F ramp - that’s unprecedented #ticktools
The other thing that is astounding is that after a 30 point run straight up DollarFlow index is only $1.3 billion in inflow #ticktools
Implication seem that this ramp is being sold into because there seems to be little conviction on buying it imo #ticktools
Read 3 tweets
1/

VOL CONTROL/VOL TARGETING

What that got to do with the markets right now?

Well, inverted $VIX has been lagging the #equity index’s and that is a big deal. The reason it is a big deal is because the of VOL TARGETING
2/

Volatility targeting/control strategies aim to control risk by BUYING $VIX as $SPX drops and liquidating $SPX as $VIX rises.

When $SPX makes new lows but $VIX does not the implication is these insurance products continue to buy #ES_F futures while sell $VIX
3/

So what so we have here? We have an entire sector that has built a model where a divergent $VIX = increased $SPX buying via #ES_F futures.

This strategy is roughly $1 tillion in notional and like $SKEW is showing, hopelessly underhedged vs a downside break
Read 10 tweets
...capito perché non se ne uscirà mai..?!?!
Dollar Shortage #FED
...le due chart "chiave"
Seguire #Fed fund rate futures e Eurodollar Futures oltre al libor è l'unica cosa che conta davvero e che impatta l'economia globale e la natura dei mercato aldilà degli algos telecomandati...
Libor up by 0.35 bps
Libor at 2.61813%
SPOT LOIS at 28.513
Read 135 tweets
This may shock most of you

1. From my observation in cross-assets analysis, this plunge from high to low 2940 to 2710 (230 pts) is nothing more than a stop run

2. I have notices some huge put selling in #ES_F in July, Aug and Sep during the relentless ramp of $SPX crushing $VIX
3. These put selling was around #ES_F 2700 strike.
4. For three months in a row, they worth around billions of dollars put premiums.
5. Th Options MMs engineered this Plunge was just to attack that $ES_F 2700 level or lower, making that put sellers capitulating.
6. But, not yet
7. If that put seller does not capitulate in the coming days, the volatility would persist until somebody folds
8. Not only that put seller sis not fold, they also added more puts at around 2500,2400, expecting the $SPX would not drop below 2500
9. It's Options market stop run.
Read 8 tweets
Tria non potrebbe mai lavorare con @POTUS 😂😂😂
#TriaExit #Mef cosa?
Sta diventando stucchevole..tanto 1,6/2/2,5 la sostanza non cambia...se arriva la contrazione economica seria come preambolo di recessione...vi travolge ...senza se e senza ma...
PUPAZZI 👺💩👏

#ITALY'S LEAGUE ECONOMICS ADVISOR SAYS ANY TALK OF THE COUNTRY'S EURO EXIT IS OUT OF DISCUSSION
Read 347 tweets
OK #ES_F people its story time. This is my goto time frame for this security-when I see specific colors print I immediately pay attention. back in July those Pinks printed and I commented on here look out its going much higher (its on this stream somewhere)
What has ALL my interest on this one now is this Yellow Bar. historically when this Prints very significant move & trends tend to follow. What is bothering me the SP has gone through a bear cycle and gone SIDEWAYS
This has extreme bullish implications, why? Next cycle is Sept 27 (ish) and that cycle is NOT bearish. I have a few in October but a very significant one early November (I know a few cycle guys have the same Nov as me)
Read 9 tweets
riprendiamo questo discorso...
la "comica" corsa delle HFT firms ad avvicinarsi quanto più possibile ai server del CME (futures exchange)...
datacenterknowledge.com/cyrusone/cyrus…
...se parlate di mercati, cari i miei governanti, almeno cercate di conoscerne la struttura...ancora con il "floor"
6 maggio del 2010...la Grecia è al centro dell'attenzione mediatica mondiale e da li a poco la #ECB inizierà a comprare debito greco via SMP... ma quel giorno verrà ricordato come la massima espressione dei "fake markets" moderni, dominati dagli algos HFT
cnbc.com/video/30003772…
Read 120 tweets
Arbitraggio di "latenza" e frammentazione della struttura del mercato US sono i concetti (da approfondire) su cui si basa la manipolazione del mercato americano, grazie al ruolo svolto da #HFT e Quants
per iniziare un video che rappresenta un "must"
#ES_F
Ogni rettangolo colorato nel video è un exchange,ce ne sono 13 che tradano equities US ma controllati da 3 gruppi,Nasdaq/Nyse/Cboe quest'ultimo domina su opzioni e futures con CME. Ma ogni giorno il 40% del volume di scambi avviene nell'oscurità delle dark pool (oggi 2,15 mld $!)
Qui incominciamo a vedere i vari livelli che intercorrono prima di arrivare ad un "buy" per un "comune mortale"...
Read 51 tweets
pokernews.com/strategy/5-key…

How does it relate to markets? #ES_F ...
1. Maximize Your Winnings on the Good Days...
"some days you are going to have to take some losses, so winning as much as possible on the good days is absolutely key"
2. Minimize Your Losses on the Bad Days...
our judgment and decision-making is clouded by emotions. You are likely to play a looser game and more aggressively, and as a result you'll be more apt to make bad calls and other poor decisions
Read 6 tweets

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