Oh dear. Confusion. Senior Defence officials tell #estimates the Defence Minister has announced that Australia will send up to four Bushmaster armoured vehicles to Ukraine after a request from President Zelenskyy. Then clarify a few minutes later there's been no announcement 1/
It turns out that officials were referring to the Defence Minister's interviews this morning where he flagged Australia *was* willing to help but could only send three or four Bushmasters to Ukraine (at a time) on military planes. No final decision made yet, apparently 2/
Here's the full quote from Dutton on @RNBreakfast - he's basically saying the government is happy to send Bushmasters but officials are trying to work out how we'd get large numbers to Ukraine quickly 3/
About half an hour later the PM seems to confirm that a final decision to send Bushmasters *has* been taken: "we will be sending our armoured vehicles, our Bushmasters, as well. And we will be flying them there on our C-17s to make sure they can be there" 4/
Perhaps I'm getting bogged down in semantics here. No formal announcement, but clearly Australia has made a decision that we *are* going to send Bushmasters: question is how many we send, and how we get them there. But it's all a bit messy 5/

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More from @stephendziedzic

Apr 1
Breaking- after more than a decade of protracted negotiations, Australia and India will sign an interim free trade deal on Saturday. It's a more comprehensive agreement than some anticipated + will be registered with the WTO like a full FTA. But some key sectors still excluded 1/
Headline figure: the government says tariffs will be eliminated on more than 85% of Australian goods exports to India, rising to almost 91% over 10 years 2/
This is lower than other FTAs struck by Australia. And Australia has not been able to convince India to tear down barriers to Australian goods in sensitive sectors including chickpeas, dairy- they're excluded. This will disappoint (but not surprise I suspect) those producers 3/
Read 12 tweets
Apr 1
It is 2.41 pm on a Friday afternoon, what better time to settle into a gruelling session of @dfat estimates. Foreign policy wonks and tragics, please follow along. I won't be offended if everyone else mutes me for the next few hours 1/
No surprise. @SenatorWong asks about the security agreement between Solomon Islands and China. Wong asks if @dfat has seen the (apparently) revised agreement which is now due to be signed. Officials say no, they have not 2/
Senior @dfat official Ewen McDonald points out that Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare told parliament this week that Solomon Islands has no intention of allowing China to build a naval base in his country. McDonald says: "we are taking that on face value" 3/
Read 22 tweets
Mar 31
Zelenskyy is about to address Australia's parliament. PM Scott Morrison opens by calling Zelenskyy a "lion of democracy" and announces another $25 million in military aid. Declares: "yes, you have our prayers but you also have our weapons!" 1/
Albanese also heaps praise on Zelenskyy: "you and the brave Ukrainian people are pushing back the tide of tyranny" 2/
Zelenskyy begins. He says "what is happening in our region has become a real threat to your country and your people as well. This is the nature of evil, it can instantly cross any distance, any barriers" 3/
Read 4 tweets
Mar 30
Thread on speech delivered this morning by the head of the UK intelligence agency @GCHQ Jeremy Fleming. This is the section where he says that Russian troops have refused orders, sabotaged their equipment and even accidentally shot down their own aircraft 1/
Fleming - "even though we believe Putin’s advisers are afraid to tell him the truth, what’s going on and the extent of these misjudgements must be crystal clear to the regime" 2/
Fleming says the "great irony" is that Putin "has brought upon himself exactly what he was trying to avoid" 3/
Read 6 tweets
Mar 29
Thread. The budget for foreign policy watchers. First commitment – not strictly FP, but significant - the Government has boosted the humanitarian program. It will provide an additional 16,500 places over four years for Afghans fleeing the country 1/
This seems to be a one-off commitment on top of the 13,750 humanitarian places offered every year. Govt says that figure remains a “ceiling” (and it’s still a baseline marker) but if you add the new Afghan intake Australia’s humanitarian intake will be 17,875 until 2025-26 2/
Big increase in spending for cyber, as flagged. Almost $10 billion over a decade in “new cyber and intelligence capabilities.” This means repeated infusions of cash into Australian Signals Directorate – 680 million in 22/23, and then an extra $1.2 billion in following years 3/
Read 11 tweets
Mar 29
Right. Thread on speech by Manasseh Sogavare on the China-Solomon Islands security agreement. The PM stresses leaked doc is just a draft. But he indicates an agreement close: "we've finalised it, the document is ready for signing." Ominous words if you're sitting in Canberra 1/
Why is the agreement necessary? Sogavare speaks at great length on this. But I think this was the most useful paragraph. He says Solomon Islands needs to guard infrastructure built by its "friends." The message here is pretty clear 2/
This is how I interpret it: Sogavare is essentially arguing that Australia is unwilling to provide the force/help necessary to guard Chinese built infrastructure. Therefore Solomon Islands needs to turn towards Beijing for the training (or muscle) it wants to guard this infra 3/
Read 9 tweets

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