Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #estimates

Most recents (24)

After speaking to farmers in several states, experts and industry insiders, my sense is that a #wheat crisis is imminent for India in the next 4-5 months, or earlier
The agri ministry is estimating a crop size of record 111 million tonnes, but actual production is likely to be at least 10% lower due to the March heatwave and also shift in acreage from wheat to mustard
India is aspiring to feed the world but might end up with egg on its face when domestic consumer prices rise sharply in near future; retail prices are already on the rise
Read 8 tweets
Oh dear. Confusion. Senior Defence officials tell #estimates the Defence Minister has announced that Australia will send up to four Bushmaster armoured vehicles to Ukraine after a request from President Zelenskyy. Then clarify a few minutes later there's been no announcement 1/
It turns out that officials were referring to the Defence Minister's interviews this morning where he flagged Australia *was* willing to help but could only send three or four Bushmasters to Ukraine (at a time) on military planes. No final decision made yet, apparently 2/
Here's the full quote from Dutton on @RNBreakfast - he's basically saying the government is happy to send Bushmasters but officials are trying to work out how we'd get large numbers to Ukraine quickly 3/
Read 5 tweets
Right! I'll be live tweeting @dfat #estimates today. There is a Frances Adamson shaped absence in the room, which is quite strange. The new(ish) @dfat Secretary Kathryn Campbell is making her first appearance in the role. Will be interesting to see how she goes 1/
Payne gives an opening statement. First off she hails the new Australia-ASEAN comprehensive strategic partnership, which he calls a "significant milestone." Here's my story on this from earlier this morning 2/…
Wong is grilling officials about handling of the AUKUS / nuclear subs announcement. Why were the Indonesians briefed so late? She asks senior official Justin Hayhurst what DFAT's advice was. She says she wants to know if their advice was bad or whether it was ignored (ouch) 3/
Read 35 tweets
Starting a new thread for those following defence #estimates this afternoon. Wong asks how much Defence is spending on contractors? Officials say they spent $1.873 billion last financial year. That figure has shot up over last few years 1/
Wong raises this study by @ASPI_org which suggests that on average a Defence contractor is being paid a salary of $283,000 - around double the average Defence APS salary of $121,000 2/
Officials say the ASPI calculation is not wrong but it's not entirely fair because it's not a "like for like" comparison. Still they agree that on the whole contractors are more expensive. They give several explanations: for eg, they bring a specialist skillset (eg ICT) 3/
Read 8 tweets
Defence #estimates on this morning. When will get the first nuclear submarine delivered under AUKUS? By 2040 as the PM has indicated? The head of sub taskforce says that is the "right hand marker" which he wants to "drag left." He wants "at least one boat" in the water by 2040 1/
Are we looking at leasing out US or UK submarines to help fill the gap given the Collins Class subs are coming towards the end of their lives in the 2030s? The head of the Defence Dept Greg Moriarty seems pretty definitive- he says no 2/
Labor's Penny Wong says the Govt is trying to "eke out the last years of an ageing platform" (Collins) in the hope of covering the gap before the nuclear subs theoretically arrive

Wong: "pretty risky don't you reckon?"
Moriarty: "The PM has said this is a high risk program"
Read 10 tweets
1/3. A thread on ballpark estimate of -1% China growth shock, IF really bad chain reactions as some China commentaries suggesting

#Evergrande Fallout LEADS To
#Real #Estate #Contraction -10% LEADS To
#China #GDP -1% LEADS to

#US and the rest of the world?
2/3. IMF paper @KamiarMohaddes etc. estimated in 2016, w. -1% China growth shock

GLOBAL growth - 0.23%.
#INDIA will be least impacted.
#ASEAN-5 countries (except Philippines), ranging between -0.23% and -0.35%
#EURO Area -0.12%
#UK -0.04%
#US -0.07%…
3/3. Caveats: written 2016. Estimates Statistical with wide band. China has further integrated with the world where it BOTH imports and exports significantly. Hope Prof. @KamiarMohaddes keep updating as it will be called up frequently next 30 years
Read 5 tweets
We're back in #NDIS #estimates now and I'm asking questions about transparency and consultation around the Morrison government's proposed changes to our NDIS.

How has the weighting for the questions in each #IndependentAssessments tool been assigned? #ausPol
None of this data in quarterly report.
There is a timeline suggesting this proposal will be introduced in August this year - we need this information before that time.

They've taken that on notice #AusPol #NDIS #Estimates
Read 8 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 05/30/2021…
Solar Storms Are Back, Threatening Power Grids and Satellites…

#SolarStorms #PowerGrids #satellites #consequences
As Covid dissipates in the U.S., cold and flu viruses may return with a vengeance…

#COVID19 #colds #flu #CaseCounts #estimates
Read 10 tweets
Did you know the Morrison Government is using YOUR taxes to paying the legal bills for these Liberal Ministers? A short thread 1/5 #estimates…
Michaelia Cash was involved in a politically tainted investigation of the AWU. The cost to taxpayers of her legal bills from this debacle? $430,000. 2/5 #estimates
Linda Reynolds has apologised for calling her former staffer Brittany Higgins a “lying cow”. She’s been granted taxpayer-funded assistance for the Federal Police investigation into the alleged rape Ms Higgins. 3/5… #estimates
Read 5 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 05/18/2021…
To make particles flow more efficiently, put an obstacle in their way…

Researchers find order in a process previously assumed to be random…

#order #randomness
Read 10 tweets
Services Australia and new minister Linda Reynolds fronting the community affairs committee for spillover #estimates now.
How many robodebt refunds made to date? $724m, 96.4% of eligible customers.
Reynolds says she is "very familiar" with and "passionate" about the NDIS. Was asked if she asked for these specific portfolios.
She won't reveal private conversations with the PM. But she thanks him for staying in regular contact with her while she was in hospital and on leave
Read 43 tweets
Big day in #estimates today. I found out from AFP Commissioner Reece Kershaw that the Brittany Higgins investigation had received 32 referrals of information to their investigation, and the AFP are actively pursuing six matters. 1/7
During my questioning of the Secretary of the Department of Parliamentary Services we learned that there had been no changes to parliamentary security protocols since Brittany Higgins’ allegations came to light. 2/7 #estimates
We also learned that a review of security procedures and policies - some of which haven’t been updated since the early 2000s! - had been started in early 2018 but had not yet recommended any changes to security guard duty of care. 3/7 #estimates
Read 7 tweets
Another shocking Morrison cover up. #Estimates exposes Mr Morrison’s inquiry into the alleged sexual assault in Parliament House as a sham, the head of his Department blames the AFP, and the AFP denies any responsibility. Here's the evidence. 1/4
Mr Morrison last week told Parliament he was awaiting a report from, Phil Gaetjens, the head of his Department, on who knew what and when in his office about the alleged rape. 2/4
But Mr Gaetjens, has just revealed he told the PM on 9 March he'd put his investigation on hold at the request of the AFP. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
Services Australia up in front of #estimates now. Strap in folks. #auspol
First off, Labor's Jenny McAllister asks officials about how they identify customers who are experiencing family violence.
Services Australia made 75,000 referrals for customers to family violence support in the past year
Read 41 tweets
I will be tweeting Department of Social Services #estimates today. And filing to @GuardianAus blog #auspol
Just going through some DSS advertising contracts at the moment. Katy Gallagher wanted to ask about jobseeker but that'll be in the next session
DSS secretary Kathryn Campbell: "We have provided advice to the government on the rate of jobseeker."
Read 41 tweets
*Sizzling* new #Watergate documents show taxpayers & rivers were ripped off.
Kudos to @Senator_Patrick for epic FoI battle.

After 2 year cover up, only explanations left are incompetence or wrongdoing by @DeptAgNews under @Barnaby_Joyce. THREAD.
Taxpayers paid @AngusTaylorMP's former co $80m for dubious water in Condamine Balonne valley. It seemed outrageous at the time, esp when the co announced a $52m profit on the deal.
@MaryanneSlatte1 & I showed, the dpt had haggled the price *up*.…
The price of $2,745/ML and profit have never been disputed, but Department told the Senate “This price was consistent with the market valuation,” along with some other selective quotes and misrepresentations:
(Question 197 here:…) Image
Read 14 tweets
Thread by @isabelrodbar: Are SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence estimates biased?…

The Great Stagnation—or Decline and Fall? - Intercollegiate Studies Institute: Think. Live Free.…

#civilization #fall #decline
Read 12 tweets
I've been wondering why the Board of #SportsAustralia never spoke up about #sportsrorts?

So, I decided to take a closer look at who's who on the Board.

It's made up of a mix of ex-Libs/Nats, mining/banking/finance/media execs, public servants & some sporty ppl
It's difficult to determine when some of these Board members were originally appointed many years ago, but all have been appointed or reappointed by Greg Hunt or Bridget McKenzie
#auspol #sportsrorts #SportAustralia
Interestingly, Greg Hunt also sits on the Cabinet Expenditure Review Committee who oversaw & increased the funding for the Community Sports Infrastructure Grants program (CSIG) or #sportsrorts

#auspol #SportAustralia
Read 20 tweets
At #Estimates, the Dept Formerly Known As The Dept of Human Services claimed they knew nothing, simply nothing, about averaging #robodebt 1-Nov-2025 hold end dates.
We do like to be helpful, so here's a few examples…
Repayment restart date: 1-Nov-2025
Interest: $21.47
Recovery fee: $612.05
Amount paid: $2200.00

A hold means a repayment withheld.
Repayment restart date: 1-Nov-2025
Amount paid: $4047.52

A hold means a repayment withheld.
Read 7 tweets
Scott Morrison’s Deputy PM today in the @australian whines that “it really annoys me that I think states have been let off the hook largely this summer”. Here’s a few things that annoy me, about the recent bushfires...
@australian It really annoys me that, as we learned at Senate #estimates this week, Scott Morrison was warned “on multiple occasions” about the risk the bushfires posed, but he did nothing.
@australian It really annoys me that, for four years before the bushfires, Scott Morrison ignored pleas for more funding for water bombing.…
Read 17 tweets
Could this be another Liberal rort? A thread. #estimates
In estimates Labor just asked the Libs about their $50 million industry hubs program, designed to improve opportunities in areas of high youth unemployment.

The Libs announced the location of the 10 industry training hubs after the election was called.
6 locations were in Coalition held seats. 3 were in marginal Labor seats, 2 of which were won by the Coalition at the last election.

The Minister Michaelia Cash admitted she signed off on the locations.

But she wouldn’t answer when (was it during the caretaker period?)
Read 6 tweets
Talking first about the trial of a 'goal attainment framework' within the #NDIS - that is to ensure that participants 'life goals' are 'clear, realistic and measurable'

This is subjective. Participant's goals should be their business only #Estimates #Auspol
The addition of 'clear, realistic and measurable' is new to the #NDIS lexicon

How is the #NDIS going to measure someone's life goals with respect to relationships? Sex Ed? Etc

As a disabled person on the NDIS pathway this is very important to me, and to many others #estimates
Will there be any impact on participants funding if the NDIA determines a participant's goal is 'unclear', 'unrealistic' or 'unmeasurable'? This is EXTREMELY important #Estimates #Auspol
Read 15 tweets
Q3-2019 EARINGS - The Good, Bad, & Ugly.
With the bulk of earnings in we can analyze just how "good" those earnings actually were, and what we should expect next. Also, what #profits are telling us. $SPY $TLT #Earnings #Profits #Recession #Reversion…
Earnings - The Good:
"With 73% of companies beating estimates, it certainly suggests that companies in the S&P 500 are firing on all cylinders, which should support higher asset prices."

However, as they say, the “Devil is in the details.”
Earnings - The Bad
"In order for companies to achieve the 73% 'beat rate' - estimates had to be crushed to accommodate lower earnings."…
Read 8 tweets

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