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Heidi Shierholz

@hshierholz

Mar 4

We added 678,000 jobs in February, for a total of 7.9 million jobs added since the end of 2020. It’s mindbogglingly fast and sustained growth—well over half a million jobs added per month on average for more than a year. 1/

@eliselgould

At this point, more than 9 out of every 10 jobs lost during the recession have been regained. The first thing I did when I saw today’s numbers was to slack @eliselgould “my god this recovery is insanely strong.” 2/

But there is still a long way to go! The recession left a huge hole, and depending on how you measure the counterfactual, the total gap in the labor market right now is still somewhere between 4.5 and 6.5 million jobs. But that gap is closing astonishingly fast. 3/

Read 16 tweets

Heidi Shierholz

@hshierholz

Nov 5, 2021

Job growth picked up in October to 531,000, and upward revisions to prior data put the three-month average at 442,000. That is lower than the pre-delta period—job growth averaged 710,000 per month in the six months before delta—but it’s very strong growth. 1/

Worth noting: slower job growth in the delta-period has been accompanied by slower wage growth in most industries. 2/

This is yet another sign that the strong wage growth we have seen in some industries this year is not a permanent shift in worker bargaining power, but a temporary result of the (very) unique circumstances of this recovery. 3/

Read 9 tweets

Heidi Shierholz

@hshierholz

Aug 6, 2021

The labor market added 943,000 jobs in July, huge job growth far surpassing expectations. There were also upward revisions to earlier data, bringing the three month average to 832,000, also huge. 1/

There is still a big gap in the labor market, but even with some slowing from this pace of job growth, we will be back to pre-COVID health by the end of 2022—a recovery *five times* as fast as the recovery following the Great Recession, thanks to the vaccine and to the ARP. 2/

The unemployment rate dropped from 5.9% to 5.4%, and all for “good” reasons—both the labor force participation rate and (especially) the employment-to-population ratio rose. People are finding work. 3/

Read 23 tweets

Heidi Shierholz

@hshierholz

Jun 24, 2021

This chart shows continuing claims for unemployment insurance (UI) in all programs (the latest data available for this, released this morning, are from the week ending June 6th). Three-quarters of people on UI are on the pandemic programs Congress created (PUA and PEUC). 1/

Total continuing claims held steady in the latest data but are generally steadily declining—the 4-wk moving average declined by 280,000 and has come down by 4.4 million in just the last three months. However, it’s still roughly 13.5 million above where it was before COVID. 2/

Governors in 25 Republican-led states are canceling pandemic UI benefits early, snatching the lifeline that Congress created. This is a stunning example of how broken our UI system is. 3/

Read 4 tweets

Heidi Shierholz

@hshierholz

Jun 4, 2021

The labor market added 559,000 jobs in May, very strong growth in line with expectations. The unemployment rate dropped to 5.8%, and most of that drop was for “good” reasons, people getting jobs. 1/

However, we still have 7.6 million fewer jobs than we did before the recession, in February 2020. 2/

Further that 7.6 million is not the total gap in the labor market. Without COVID, we would have *added* jobs over the last 15 months as the working-age population grew. Taking that into account, the total gap in the labor market right now is at least 8.5 million jobs. 3/

Read 21 tweets

Heidi Shierholz

@hshierholz

Jun 3, 2021

Last week 461,000 people applied for UI. This included 385,000 who applied for regular state UI (seasonally adjusted) and 76,000 who applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA). 1/ dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

Claims are steadily coming down as the labor market strengthens. The 461,000 who applied for UI last week was a decrease of 37,000 from the prior week. The 4-week moving average of total initial claims also decreased by 37,000. 2/

Total initial claims are now around 40% what they were the first week of March, just shy of three months ago. This is a remarkable improvement. 3/

Read 9 tweets

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